NPB Standings Forecast 2026

Data as of
  • ✓Hanshin 0 - 4 Yakult

The one game today is included as provisional results (official figures update the next morning)

Central League

Likely first Hanshin 100%
Likely last Chunichi 100%

Pacific League

Likely first SoftBank 100%
Likely last Rakuten 100%

end of Oct 8, 2026 / npbc.media

Central: Hanshin has clinched first; Pacific: SoftBank has clinched first.

The forecast shows each club's likely final place.

Projected finish for all 12 clubs

The table is in projected-rank order. The Pennant, Top 3 and Last columns show the chance of finishing there.

Central League

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Rank Team Range Pennant Top 3 Last Proj. W-L
#1 Hanshin #1-#1 100% 100% 0% 79 - 62 (2)
#2 Yomiuri #2-#2 0% 100% 0% 76 - 64 (3)
#3 DeNA #3-#3 0% 100% 0% 71 - 69 (3)
#4 Hiroshima #4-#4 0% 0% 0% 61 - 78 (4)
#5 Yakult #5-#5 0% 0% 0% 61 - 80 (2)
#6 Chunichi #6-#6 0% 0% 100% 60 - 81 (2)

Pacific League

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Rank Team Range Pennant Top 3 Last Proj. W-L
#1 SoftBank #1-#1 100% 100% 0% 91 - 49 (3)
#2 Seibu #2-#2 0% 100% 0% 79 - 60 (4)
#3 Nippon-Ham #3-#3 0% 100% 0% 78 - 62 (3)
#4 ORIX #4-#4 0% 0% 0% 65 - 76 (2)
#5 Lotte #5-#5 0% 0% 0% 63 - 77 (3)
#6 Rakuten #6-#6 0% 0% 100% 58 - 84 (1)

See nextClub strength breakdownFirst-place club in its leagueHanshin PitchingS− BattingASoftBank PitchingC− BattingA−Club strength breakdownHighest-rated pitchersFirst-place club in its leagueHanshin 髙橋 遥人A+ 村上 頌樹A+SoftBank 津森 宥紀B+ ヘルナンデスB+Highest-rated pitchersHighest-rated battersFirst-place club in its leagueHanshin 佐藤 輝明S 森下 翔太S−SoftBank 栗原 陵矢A+ 近藤 健介AHighest-rated battersSalary guidePer-player guides built from career stats since joining

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Chance of each finish

Each cell is the chance of finishing at that rank (blank under 0.5%). The range column shows the best and worst final ranks that can come out.

Diagonal hatching marks ranks that can no longer be reached, whatever the remaining results.

Central League Chance of each finishend of Oct 8, 2026npbc.media

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Team #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Range
Hanshin 100% #1-#1
Yomiuri 100% #2-#2
DeNA 100% #3-#3
Hiroshima 100% #4-#4
Yakult 100% #5-#5
Chunichi 100% #6-#6
Pacific League Chance of each finishend of Oct 8, 2026npbc.media

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Team #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Range
SoftBank 100% #1-#1
Seibu 100% #2-#2
Nippon-Ham 100% #3-#3
ORIX 100% #4-#4
Lotte 100% #5-#5
Rakuten 100% #6-#6
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What the forecast rests on

See also the schedule and momentum: Remaining schedule difficulty / Games-over-.500 chart (momentum)

True strength (Pythagorean)

Central LeagueLargest gap vs expected wins: Yakult +5.4 wins (overperforming)

Pacific LeagueLargest gap vs expected wins: ORIX +8.8 wins (overperforming)

Pythagorean expectation →

Team strength rating (Elo)

Central LeagueLeague leader: Hanshin 1529.1

Pacific LeagueLeague leader: SoftBank 1574.1

Elo ratings (team strength) →

Right after opening day the gaps are small; they widen as games are played.

How accurate are these forecasts? Track record of this forecast

Inputs for this date

  • Tie rate (Central, observed)1.7%
  • Tie rate (Pacific, observed)1.7%
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The estimated figures are worked out by this site and are not official announcements.

How to read the forecast

The range shows the places that come up as a final finish: the narrower it is, the more settled the place.

Even for a club with no pennant chance, the top-three and last-place odds show what is still at stake in the games left.

How it differs from pundits' picks

This forecast is updated every morning from game results alone and includes no judgement of the rosters.

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