When is the earliest possible clinch? Projected clinch dates
Central League: Hanshin clinched (Oct 3); Pacific League: SoftBank clinched (Sep 17).
Hanshin have clinched the pennant (decided on Sat, Oct 3)
Among the 20 seasons of actual clinch dates below, this season's clinch date ranks 16-fastest.
SoftBank have clinched the pennant (decided on Thu, Sep 17)
Among the 19 seasons of actual clinch dates below, this season's clinch date ranks 2-fastest.
Clinch numbers by league? Central League clinch number Pacific League clinch number
How high are the pennant odds? Pennant odds for all 12 clubs
Schedule after the pennant races: CS First Stage from Sat, Oct 10 / CS Final Stage from Wed, Oct 14 / Japan Series Sat, Oct 24 – Sun, Nov 1. Climax Series schedule and series odds →
Magic numbers / Controlling their own fate: pennant
The smallest number of remaining wins that clinches the pennant regardless of what rivals do. If percentages finish level, the order is settled by head-to-head records and the other league criteria. This is a different number from the "X more wins" on the pennant line chart, which is an estimated guide to reaching the line.
Whether a club would clinch the pennant by winning all remaining games, regardless of rivals.
Central League
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| Team | Magic | Status | Controls pennant |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hanshin | 0 | Clinched | Yes |
| Yomiuri | — | Eliminated from the pennant race | No |
| DeNA | — | Eliminated from the pennant race | No |
| Hiroshima | — | Eliminated from the pennant race | No |
| Yakult | — | Eliminated from the pennant race | No |
| Chunichi | — | Eliminated from the pennant race | No |
On Sat, Aug 29, the magic number lit for Hanshin at 23.
Pacific League
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| Team | Magic | Status | Controls pennant |
|---|---|---|---|
| SoftBank | 0 | Clinched | Yes |
| Seibu | — | Eliminated from the pennant race | No |
| Nippon-Ham | — | Eliminated from the pennant race | No |
| ORIX | — | Eliminated from the pennant race | No |
| Lotte | — | Eliminated from the pennant race | No |
| Rakuten | — | Eliminated from the pennant race | No |
On Wed, Aug 5, the magic number lit for SoftBank at 37.
Clinch number (wins to clinch the pennant)
A clinch number is the number of wins still needed for the pennant to be mathematically certain.
Central League Hanshin = clinched (Oct 3)
Pacific League SoftBank = clinched (Sep 17)
Actual clinch dates in the last 20 seasons (2006-2025)
This section shows past seasons' actual results. This season's projection is in the section at the top of the page.
Scroll right to see the full chart
Table of each season's actual clinch dates
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| Year | Central League | Pacific League | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Hanshin Tigers | Sep 7 | Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks | Sep 27 |
| 2024 | Yomiuri Giants | Sep 28 | Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks | Sep 23 |
| 2023 | Hanshin Tigers | Sep 14 | ORIX Buffaloes | Sep 20 |
| 2022 | Tokyo Yakult Swallows | Sep 25 | ORIX Buffaloes | Oct 2 |
| 2021 | Tokyo Yakult Swallows | Oct 26 | ORIX Buffaloes | Oct 27 |
| 2020 | Yomiuri Giants | Oct 30 | Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks | Oct 27 |
| 2019 | Yomiuri Giants | Sep 21 | Saitama Seibu Lions | Sep 24 |
| 2018 | Hiroshima Toyo Carp | Sep 26 | Saitama Seibu Lions | Sep 30 |
| 2017 | Hiroshima Toyo Carp | Sep 18 | Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks | Sep 16 |
| 2016 | Hiroshima Toyo Carp | Sep 10 | Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters | Sep 28 |
| 2015 | Tokyo Yakult Swallows | Oct 2 | Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks | Sep 17 |
| 2014 | Yomiuri Giants | Sep 26 | Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks | Oct 2 |
| 2013 | Yomiuri Giants | Sep 22 | Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles | Sep 26 |
| 2012 | Yomiuri Giants | Sep 21 | Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters | Oct 2 |
| 2011 | Chunichi Dragons | Oct 18 | Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks | Oct 1 |
| 2010 | Chunichi Dragons | Oct 1 | Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks | Sep 26 |
| 2009 | Yomiuri Giants | Sep 23 | Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters | Oct 6 |
| 2008 | Yomiuri Giants | Oct 10 | Saitama Seibu Lions | Sep 26 |
| 2007 | Yomiuri Giants | Oct 2 | Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters | Sep 29 |
| 2006 | Chunichi Dragons | Oct 10 | Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters | |
The estimated figures are worked out by this site and are not official announcements.
What 'clinched' means here
NPB standings are decided by winning percentage (wins over decisions). On this page, 'clinched' means the state where the club could lose out, every rival could win out, and the standings would still not move.
How magic numbers relate to this page
The magic number M is the smallest number of remaining wins that clinches the pennant regardless of what rivals do, and the day M reaches 0 is the clinch date. This page carries the current numbers and the self-control test in one table. The full picture - how lighting, going dark and relighting work, this season's history, the target club and the per-rival breakdown - lives on the dedicated magic number page.
Controlling your own fate: the pennant
A club 'controls its own fate' when winning all of its remaining games would clinch the pennant regardless of other results. Losing that control is not elimination: the club can still win the pennant depending on rivals, and control can even be regained.
The equivalent test for a top-three finish and the CS berth magic numbers are on the CS clinch-date page.
Reading the projected dates: distributions and approximations
Projected dates are the median and 80% range of the outlook for the day the pennant is clinched.
Frequently asked questions
What if the leaders are tied on percentage late in the season?
If percentages finish level, the order is settled by the league criteria, starting with head-to-head records.
If a club no longer controls its own fate, is it out of the race?
No. Losing self-control means winning out would not guarantee the pennant - it is not elimination. The club can still clinch if rivals drop games, and self-control can be regained as the race unfolds.
What is a clinch number?
It is the number of wins still needed to lock in a place in the standings. For the pennant it is the number of wins after which the clubs below cannot catch up even if they win out - the same thing as the magic number M on this site (M13 = 13 more wins to clinch). For a Climax Series berth it is the number of wins that locks in a top-three (A-class) finish, listed club by club on When are NPB CS berths clinched?.