In the Last 10 column, a tall dark bar is a win, a short light bar a loss, and a thin line a tie - the same encoding as the win-loss calendar.
'In control / Needs help' shows whether a club can still clinch the pennant on its own by winning out; M is the lit magic number.
Central League
Scroll right for W-L, PCT and more
| Rank | Team | Pennant odds | Climax Series odds | W-L-T | PCT | GB | Left | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HanshinIn control | 59-46-1 | .562 | — | 37 | 6-4 | ||
| 2 | YomiuriIn control | 57-48-2 | .543 | 2.0 | 36 | 5-5 | ||
| 3 | YakultNeeds help | 49-55-1 | .471 | 9.5 | 38 | 5-5 | ||
| 4 | DeNANeeds help | 48-56-3 | .462 | 10.5 | 36 | 5-5 | ||
| 5 | ChunichiNeeds help | 46-62-1 | .426 | 14.5 | 34 | 5-5 | ||
| 6 | HiroshimaNeeds help | 40-58-4 | .408 | 15.5 | 41 | 3-7 |
Pacific League
Scroll right for W-L, PCT and more
| Rank | Team | Pennant odds | Climax Series odds | W-L-T | PCT | GB | Left | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SoftBankM28 | 67-39-1 | .632 | — | 36 | 5-5 | ||
| 2 | SeibuNeeds help | 60-47-3 | .561 | 7.5 | 33 | 5-5 | ||
| 3 | Nippon-HamNeeds help | 62-49-0 | .559 | 7.5 | 32 | 6-4 | ||
| 4 | ORIXNeeds help | 53-54-2 | .495 | 14.5 | 34 | 4-6 | ||
| 5 | LotteNeeds help | 48-53-3 | .475 | 16.5 | 39 | 5-5 | ||
| 6 | RakutenNeeds help | 41-63-1 | .394 | 25.0 | 38 | 5-5 |
All probabilities are model estimates and do not guarantee outcomes. The table below is reference data compiled by this site, not an official announcement.
Season highlights
Days in first place are counted per day with games played.
When will the pennant be decided?
Central LeagueMedian clinch date: Sep 29, 2026
Pacific LeagueMedian clinch date: Sep 21, 2026
All probabilities are model estimates and do not guarantee outcomes.
Games over .500
Central LeagueBest W−L balance: Hanshin +13
Pacific LeagueBest W−L balance: SoftBank +28
Pennant odds over time
The same model re-run on each day's data, backfilled to opening day.
Final-rank probability matrix
Each cell is the share (%) of 20,000 simulation trials that ended at that rank (blank under 0.5%). The range column shows the best and worst ranks that appeared at least once.
Scroll right for more
| Team | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hanshin | 75 | 25 | #1-#4 | ||||
| Yomiuri | 25 | 73 | 2 | #1-#5 | |||
| Yakult | 1 | 45 | 35 | 15 | 3 | #1-#6 | |
| DeNA | 1 | 42 | 39 | 14 | 3 | #1-#6 | |
| Chunichi | 9 | 20 | 50 | 21 | #2-#6 | ||
| Hiroshima | 1 | 5 | 21 | 73 | #2-#6 |
Scroll right for more
| Team | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SoftBank | 98 | 2 | #1-#3 | ||||
| Seibu | 1 | 52 | 45 | 2 | #1-#5 | ||
| Nippon-Ham | 1 | 45 | 52 | 2 | #1-#5 | ||
| ORIX | 2 | 67 | 30 | #2-#6 | |||
| Lotte | 1 | 29 | 68 | 2 | #2-#6 | ||
| Rakuten | 2 | 98 | #4-#6 |
All probabilities are model estimates and do not guarantee outcomes.
Games-behind ladder
Current positions measured in games behind the leader.
Pennant and Climax Series win lines
Central LeagueMedian pennant line: 80 wins / Median CS line: 68 wins
Pacific LeagueMedian pennant line: 89 wins / Median CS line: 77 wins
All probabilities are model estimates and do not guarantee outcomes.
True strength (Pythagorean)
Central LeagueLargest gap vs expectation: Yakult +5.5
Pacific LeagueLargest gap vs expectation: ORIX +5.8
Team strength rating (Elo)
Central LeagueLeague leader: Hanshin 1531.7
Pacific LeagueLeague leader: SoftBank 1562.7
Remaining head-to-head games
Derived from the official standings (25 games per league opponent and 3 per interleague opponent, minus games played).
Central League
Scroll right for more
| T | G | S | DB | D | C | Interleague | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hanshin | 5 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 37 | |
| Yomiuri | 5 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 36 | |
| Yakult | 10 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 38 | |
| DeNA | 9 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 36 | |
| Chunichi | 6 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 34 | |
| Hiroshima | 7 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 41 |
Pacific League
Scroll right for more
| H | L | F | B | M | E | Interleague | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SoftBank | 5 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 36 | |
| Seibu | 5 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 33 | |
| Nippon-Ham | 8 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 32 | |
| ORIX | 10 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 34 | |
| Lotte | 8 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 39 | |
| Rakuten | 5 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 38 |
Pace projection for the remaining matchups
A projection of each club's final record and reference rank if its head-to-head pace so far continued through the remaining games. All remaining games are assumed to end in a decision (the tie count stays at its current value).
Central League
| Team | Current record | Left | Projected final | Projected PCT | Reference rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hanshin | 59-46-1 | 37 | 81.2-60.8-1 | .572 | #1 → |
| Yomiuri | 57-48-2 | 36 | 77.6-63.4-2 | .550 | #2 → |
| Yakult | 49-55-1 | 38 | 66.6-75.4-1 | .469 | #3 → |
| DeNA | 48-56-3 | 36 | 65.5-74.5-3 | .468 | #4 → |
| Chunichi | 46-62-1 | 34 | 61.3-80.7-1 | .431 | #5 → |
| Hiroshima | 40-58-4 | 41 | 57.8-81.2-4 | .415 | #6 → |
Pacific League
| Team | Current record | Left | Projected final | Projected PCT | Reference rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SoftBank | 67-39-1 | 36 | 89.0-53.0-1 | .627 | #1 → |
| Seibu | 60-47-3 | 33 | 76.7-63.3-3 | .548 | #2 → |
| Nippon-Ham | 62-49-0 | 32 | 77.7-65.3-0 | .544 | #3 → |
| ORIX | 53-54-2 | 34 | 70.3-70.7-2 | .498 | #4 → |
| Lotte | 48-53-3 | 39 | 66.6-73.4-3 | .475 | #5 → |
| Rakuten | 41-63-1 | 38 | 56.7-85.3-1 | .399 | #6 → |
Each matchup so far is a small sample of at most a couple dozen games, so this extrapolation is a reference value only. Clubs with the same projected percentage share a rank; nothing here guarantees standings or results.
Impact of the next game
Conditional odds if a team wins or loses one game against the opponent with the most games remaining (a model assumption, which may differ from the actual schedule).
Central League
Scroll right for Climax Series scenarios
| Team | Assumed matchup | Pennant odds | Climax Series odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | After a win | After a loss | Current | After a win | After a loss | ||
| Hanshin | vs Yakult | 74.9% | 77.7% +2.8 pt | 70.8% −4.1 pt | 100% | 100% ±0.0 pt | 100% ±0.0 pt |
| Yomiuri | vs Hiroshima | 25% | 28.4% +3.4 pt | 20.3% −4.7 pt | 99.8% | 99.8% ±0.0 pt | 99.7% −0.1 pt |
| DeNA | vs Yomiuri | 0.1% | 0.1% ±0.0 pt | 0% −0.1 pt | 43.5% | 48.8% +5.3 pt | 38.7% −4.8 pt |
| Yakult | vs Hanshin | 0% | 0.1% +0.1 pt | 0% ±0.0 pt | 46.8% | 51.8% +5.0 pt | 43.3% −3.5 pt |
| Chunichi | vs Hiroshima | 0% | 0% ±0.0 pt | 0% ±0.0 pt | 8.7% | 10.3% +1.6 pt | 6.8% −1.9 pt |
| Hiroshima | vs Yomiuri | 0% | 0% ±0.0 pt | 0% ±0.0 pt | 1.3% | 1.7% +0.4 pt | 1% −0.3 pt |
Pacific League
Scroll right for Climax Series scenarios
| Team | Assumed matchup | Pennant odds | Climax Series odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | After a win | After a loss | Current | After a win | After a loss | ||
| SoftBank | vs ORIX | 97.8% | 98.2% +0.4 pt | 97.1% −0.7 pt | 100% | 100% ±0.0 pt | 100% ±0.0 pt |
| Seibu | vs Rakuten | 1.2% | 1.6% +0.4 pt | 0.7% −0.5 pt | 98.4% | 98.7% +0.3 pt | 97.8% −0.6 pt |
| Nippon-Ham | vs Lotte | 1% | 1.2% +0.2 pt | 0.7% −0.3 pt | 98.1% | 98.6% +0.5 pt | 97.4% −0.7 pt |
| ORIX | vs SoftBank | 0% | 0% ±0.0 pt | 0% ±0.0 pt | 2.5% | 3.6% +1.1 pt | 1.9% −0.6 pt |
| Lotte | vs Rakuten | 0% | 0% ±0.0 pt | 0% ±0.0 pt | 1% | 1.2% +0.2 pt | 0.6% −0.4 pt |
| Rakuten | vs Lotte | 0% | 0% ±0.0 pt | 0% ±0.0 pt | 0% | 0% ±0.0 pt | 0% ±0.0 pt |
Pennant race simulator
Pick one club and adjust how many of its remaining games it wins; the pennant and Climax Series odds recalculate instantly. Everything runs in your browser; nothing you enter is sent anywhere. (Simulation, 4,000 trials)
Pick a club to see how its pennant and Climax Series odds change with a different rest-of-season record.
| Team | Pennant odds | Climax Series odds |
|---|---|---|
| Hanshin | 74.9% | 100% |
| Yomiuri | 25% | 99.8% |
| Yakult | 0% | 46.8% |
| DeNA | 0.1% | 43.5% |
| Chunichi | 0% | 8.7% |
| Hiroshima | 0% | 1.3% |
| Team | Pennant odds | Climax Series odds |
|---|---|---|
| SoftBank | 97.8% | 100% |
| Seibu | 1.2% | 98.4% |
| Nippon-Ham | 1% | 98.1% |
| ORIX | 0% | 2.5% |
| Lotte | 0% | 1% |
| Rakuten | 0% | 0% |
The selected club's remaining games are fixed to the chosen record (no ties) while the other clubs keep their current pace. Left of the arrow is the current estimate; right is the estimate under the chosen record.
All probabilities are model estimates and do not guarantee outcomes.
Inputs for this date
- Trials20,000
- Tie rate (Central, observed)1.7%
- Tie rate (Pacific, observed)1.5%
Standings are decided by winning percentage
An NPB regular season is 143 games per club: a 25-game round robin against each league rival (125 games) plus 18 interleague games. Standings are decided by winning percentage, computed as wins divided by decisions; tied games are not replayed and drop out of the denominator (per the Pacific League Agreement).
That is why a club can lead in wins yet trail in the standings: a team with more ties has a smaller denominator, so the same win total yields a higher percentage. Down the stretch, the tie count often becomes the decisive variable.
Tiebreakers differ between the two leagues
Tied winning percentages are resolved differently by league. The Central League ranks clubs by (1) most wins, (2) head-to-head record between the tied clubs, (3) record within the league, then (4) the previous season's standings. When three or more clubs tie in both percentage and wins, their combined head-to-head records are compared (per the 2015 agreement amendment).
The Pacific League has no wins criterion: it goes straight to (1) head-to-head record, (2) intra-league record over the 125 league games, then (3) the previous season's standings. The simulation on this page implements these official rules exactly when ranking each simulated season.
Climax Series qualification: finish in the top three
The top three clubs in each league reach the Climax Series. Second and third place meet in the First Stage (best of three), and the winner faces the pennant winner in the Final Stage (a six-game format in which the league champion receives an advantage; the exact form is set in each year's tournament outline). The Final Stage winner advances to the Nippon Series.
The Climax Series odds on this page are simply the share of simulations in which a club finishes third or higher. Even for clubs whose pennant hopes have faded, a top-three finish keeps a route to the Nippon Series open - which is why the race for third stays meaningful deep into the season.
What these numbers mean
The 'pennant odds' on this page are the share of tens of thousands of simulated seasons in which a club finished first; the 'Climax Series odds' are the share finishing in the top three. Each simulated season is ranked according to the official standings rules, including tiebreakers.
The numbers are estimates from this site's own statistical simulation, not official announcements. Home advantage, the actual order of the schedule, starting pitchers, injuries and trades are not modeled.
Disclaimer: what these numbers do not promise
Every probability on this page is a statistical model estimate and does not guarantee actual outcomes. This is not gambling or betting information and is not intended for such use. The numbers depend on the model's assumptions (strength estimates, tie rates, schedule handling) and do not reflect real-world factors such as injuries, trades or weather.
For official standings and results, always refer to Nippon Professional Baseball (npb.jp). This page is reference material based on this site's own statistical simulation.
Frequently asked questions
How are the pennant odds computed?
The remaining schedule is simulated tens of thousands of times with this site's own statistical model, each simulated season is ranked using the official rules, and the share of trials finishing first is shown as the pennant probability. The numbers are model estimates, not official announcements.
Which clubs qualify for the Climax Series?
The top three in each league. Second and third meet in a best-of-three First Stage; the winner faces the pennant winner in the Final Stage (six-game format with an advantage for the champion), and that winner goes to the Nippon Series.
How are ties in winning percentage broken?
Central League: most wins, then head-to-head record, then intra-league record, then the previous season's standings. Pacific League: head-to-head record, then intra-league record, then the previous season's standings. If three or more CL clubs tie in both percentage and wins, their combined head-to-head records are compared.
Do 100% or 0% mean it is mathematically decided?
Not necessarily. The display rounds the share of simulation trials, so a very small (or large) probability can appear as 0% (or 100%). This page does not compute formal clinch or elimination numbers. The reachable-wins bars show each club's win-out and lose-out bounds.