Pennant odds by league? Central League pennant odds Pacific League pennant odds
In the Last 10 column, a tall dark bar is a win, a short light bar a loss, and a thin line a tie - the same encoding as the win-loss calendar.
'In control (pennant) / Needs help (pennant)' shows whether a club can still clinch the pennant on its own by winning out - separate from controlling a top-three (CS) berth; M is the lit magic number.
Central League
Scroll right for W-L, PCT and more
| Rank | Team | Pennant odds |
W - L (T) | PCT | GB (1st) | Left | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HanshinClinched | 79 - 62 (2) | .560 | — | 0 | 5 - 4 (1) | |
| 2 | YomiuriEliminated | 76 - 64 (3) | .543 | 2.5 | 0 | 4 - 5 (1) | |
| 3 | DeNAEliminated | 71 - 69 (3) | .507 | 7.5 | 0 | 5 - 5 | |
| 4 | HiroshimaEliminated | 61 - 78 (4) | .439 | 17.0 | 0 | 7 - 3 | |
| 5 | YakultEliminated | 61 - 80 (2) | .433 | 18.0 | 0 | 4 - 6 | |
| 6 | ChunichiEliminated | 60 - 81 (2) | .426 | 19.0 | 0 | 3 - 7 |
Pacific League
Scroll right for W-L, PCT and more
| Rank | Team | Pennant odds |
W - L (T) | PCT | GB (1st) | Left | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SoftBankClinched | 91 - 49 (3) | .650 | — | 0 | 7 - 3 | |
| 2 | SeibuEliminated | 79 - 60 (4) | .568 | 11.5 | 0 | 6 - 4 | |
| 3 | Nippon-HamEliminated | 78 - 62 (3) | .557 | 13.0 | 0 | 5 - 5 | |
| 4 | ORIXEliminated | 65 - 76 (2) | .461 | 26.5 | 0 | 4 - 6 | |
| 5 | LotteEliminated | 63 - 77 (3) | .450 | 28.0 | 0 | 4 - 6 | |
| 6 | RakutenEliminated | 58 - 84 (1) | .408 | 34.0 | 0 | 5 - 5 |
How high are the Climax Series odds? Climax Series berth odds
Looking for one club's odds and strength in one place? Club boards (all 12 teams)
Standings over the last 10, 20 and 30 games, by league: Central League / Pacific League
Season highlights
Days in first place are counted per day with games played.
When will the pennant be decided?
Central LeagueMedian clinch date: Clinched
Pacific LeagueMedian clinch date: Clinched
Games over .500
Central LeagueBest W−L balance (current): Hanshin +17
Pacific LeagueBest W−L balance (current): SoftBank +42
Pennant odds over time
Scroll right to see the full chart
Scroll right to see the full chart
Final-rank probability matrix
Each cell is the chance of finishing at that rank (blank under 0.5%). The range column shows the best and worst final ranks that can come out.
Diagonal hatching marks ranks that can no longer be reached, whatever the remaining results.
Scroll right for more
| Team | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hanshin | 100% | #1-#1 | |||||
| Yomiuri | 100% | #2-#2 | |||||
| DeNA | 100% | #3-#3 | |||||
| Hiroshima | 100% | #4-#4 | |||||
| Yakult | 100% | #5-#5 | |||||
| Chunichi | 100% | #6-#6 |
Scroll right for more
| Team | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SoftBank | 100% | #1-#1 | |||||
| Seibu | 100% | #2-#2 | |||||
| Nippon-Ham | 100% | #3-#3 | |||||
| ORIX | 100% | #4-#4 | |||||
| Lotte | 100% | #5-#5 | |||||
| Rakuten | 100% | #6-#6 |
Games-behind ladder
Current positions measured in games behind the leader.
Scroll right to see the full chart
Scroll right to see the full chart
Win-line table
Central LeagueMedian pennant line: 79 wins
Pacific LeagueMedian pennant line: 91 wins
True strength (Pythagorean)
Central LeagueLargest gap vs expected wins: Yakult +5.4 wins (overperforming)
Pacific LeagueLargest gap vs expected wins: ORIX +8.8 wins (overperforming)
Team strength rating (Elo)
Central LeagueLeague leader: Hanshin 1529.1
Pacific LeagueLeague leader: SoftBank 1574.1
Remaining head-to-head games
Games left in each pairing, derived from the official standings.
Central League
Scroll right for more
| T | G | DB | C | S | D | Interleague | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hanshin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Yomiuri | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| DeNA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hiroshima | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Yakult | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chunichi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Pacific League
Scroll right for more
| H | L | F | B | M | E | Interleague | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SoftBank | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seibu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nippon-Ham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| ORIX | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lotte | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rakuten | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Impact of the next game
Shows how each team's pennant odds would change after a win or a loss in its next game on the published schedule. Teams whose schedule is not yet published are marked (schedule TBA).
Pennant race what-if tool
Pick one club and adjust how many of its remaining games it wins; the pennant odds recalculate instantly. Everything runs in your browser; nothing you enter is sent anywhere.
Pick a club to see how its pennant odds change with a different rest-of-season record.
Scroll right for more
| Team | Pennant odds |
|---|---|
| Hanshin | 100% |
| Yomiuri | 0% |
| DeNA | 0% |
| Hiroshima | 0% |
| Yakult | 0% |
| Chunichi | 0% |
Scroll right for more
| Team | Pennant odds |
|---|---|
| SoftBank | 100% |
| Seibu | 0% |
| Nippon-Ham | 0% |
| ORIX | 0% |
| Lotte | 0% |
| Rakuten | 0% |
Estimates for the case where the selected club's remaining games end with the chosen record. Left of the arrow is the current estimate; right is the estimate under the chosen record.
Inputs for this date
- Tie rate (Central, observed)1.7%
- Tie rate (Pacific, observed)1.7%
How accurate are these forecasts? Track record of this forecast
The estimated figures are worked out by this site and are not official announcements.
Standings are decided by winning percentage
An NPB regular season is 143 games per club: a 25-game round robin against each league rival (125 games) plus 18 interleague games. Standings are decided by winning percentage, computed as wins divided by decisions; tied games are not replayed and drop out of the denominator (per the Pacific League Agreement).
That is why a club can lead in wins yet trail in the standings: a team with more ties has a smaller denominator, so the same win total yields a higher percentage. Down the stretch, the tie count often becomes the decisive variable.
Tiebreakers differ between the two leagues
Tied winning percentages are resolved differently by league. The Central League ranks clubs by (1) most wins, (2) head-to-head record between the tied clubs, (3) record within the league, then (4) the previous season's standings. When three or more clubs tie in both percentage and wins, their combined head-to-head records are compared (per the 2015 agreement amendment).
The Pacific League has no wins criterion: it goes straight to (1) head-to-head record, (2) intra-league record over the 125 league games, then (3) the previous season's standings. The estimate on this page implements these official rules exactly when it settles each club's finishing place.
What these numbers mean
The 'pennant odds' are the chance of finishing first, from the outlook for the remaining games.
Disclaimer: what these numbers do not promise
Every probability on this page is a statistical estimate by this site and does not guarantee actual outcomes. This is not gambling or betting information and is not intended for such use. The numbers depend on the assumptions behind the estimate and do not reflect real-world factors such as injuries, trades or weather.
This page is reference material based on this site's own statistical estimates. Where standings or results differ from the official records, the official records take precedence.
Frequently asked questions
How are ties in winning percentage broken?
Central League: most wins, then head-to-head record, then intra-league record, then the previous season's standings. Pacific League: head-to-head record, then intra-league record, then the previous season's standings. If three or more CL clubs tie in both percentage and wins, their combined head-to-head records are compared.