NPB Magic Numbers: Current M, Lighting Conditions and Target Clubs (2026)

Data as of Aug 23, 2026

Central League

Magic numbers Not lit

Pacific League

SoftBank - lit M24

Wed, Aug 5

end of Aug 23, 2026 · npbc.media

Based on results through Aug 23, 2026, in the Central League no magic number is lit (2 clubs still control their own fate), and in the Pacific League SoftBank's magic number stands at 24. This page also covers what the magic number formally means, the target club, the per-rival breakdown and this season's lighting history.

A magic number is not the end of the story once it lights up. The target club can change, the number can go dark and relight, and rivals can lose and regain control of their own fate. This page tracks the current M in both leagues plus its anatomy - which rival sets it - exact scenarios for each win-loss combination, the full lifecycle this season and lighting dates from past seasons, all in one place.

Current magic numbers

Central League Not lit

No magic number is lit: 2 clubs still control their own fate.

The earliest (best case) the magic number can light up is Tue, Aug 25.

Simulations point to around Fri, Aug 28 (median; 80% range Tue, Aug 25 to Sun, Aug 30).

Pacific League M24

SoftBank's magic number is 24 (lit on Wed, Aug 5 at M37).

So when will the pennant be clinched? See the projected clinch dates
How many wins make the pennant line? See the pennant-line lookup
How does tonight's game move the odds? See tonight's scenario board

When will the magic number light up?

Central League

Central League When will the magic number light up? end of Aug 23, 2026 npbc.media 0 25 50 75 100 50% = coin-flip guide Lighting probability (%) 9/1 9/8 9/15 9/22 10/1 Earliest Aug 25 Even odds by Aug 28 Near certain by Aug 30 Most likely on Aug 25 (24.6%) Tue, Aug 25: lights this day 24.6% / by this day 24.6% Wed, Aug 26: lights this day 12.9% / by this day 37.5% Thu, Aug 27: lights this day 8.3% / by this day 45.8% Fri, Aug 28: lights this day 23.2% / by this day 68.9% Sat, Aug 29: lights this day 14.4% / by this day 83.3% Sun, Aug 30: lights this day 7.8% / by this day 91.1% Tue, Sep 1: lights this day 1.4% / by this day 92.5% Wed, Sep 2: lights this day 1% / by this day 93.5% Thu, Sep 3: lights this day 0.2% / by this day 93.6% Fri, Sep 4: lights this day 0.6% / by this day 94.3% Sat, Sep 5: lights this day 0.6% / by this day 94.8% Sun, Sep 6: lights this day 0.5% / by this day 95.3% Tue, Sep 8: lights this day 0.5% / by this day 95.9% Wed, Sep 9: lights this day 0.5% / by this day 96.3% Thu, Sep 10: lights this day 0.4% / by this day 96.7% Fri, Sep 11: lights this day 0% / by this day 96.7% Sat, Sep 12: lights this day 1.7% / by this day 98.4% Sun, Sep 13: lights this day 0.5% / by this day 98.9% Mon, Sep 14: lights this day 0.3% / by this day 99.2% Tue, Sep 15: lights this day 0.3% / by this day 99.5% Thu, Sep 17: lights this day 0.1% / by this day 99.6% Fri, Sep 18: lights this day 0.1% / by this day 99.7% Sat, Sep 19: lights this day 0.1% / by this day 99.8% Sun, Sep 20: lights this day 0.1% / by this day 99.8% Mon, Sep 21: lights this day 0% / by this day 99.9% Tue, Sep 22: lights this day 0% / by this day 99.9% Wed, Sep 23: lights this day 0% / by this day 99.9% Thu, Sep 24: lights this day 0% / by this day 100% Fri, Sep 25: lights this day 0% / by this day 100% Sun, Sep 27: lights this day 0% / by this day 100% Tue, Sep 29: lights this day 0% / by this day 100% Thu, Oct 1: lights this day 0% / by this day 100%
Central League When will the magic number light up? end of Aug 23, 2026 npbc.media 0 50 100 50% = coin-flip guide Lighting probability (%) 9/1 9/15 10/1 Earliest Aug 25 Even odds by Aug 28 Near certain by Aug 30 Most likely on Aug 25 (24.6%) Tue, Aug 25: lights this day 24.6% / by this day 24.6% Wed, Aug 26: lights this day 12.9% / by this day 37.5% Thu, Aug 27: lights this day 8.3% / by this day 45.8% Fri, Aug 28: lights this day 23.2% / by this day 68.9% Sat, Aug 29: lights this day 14.4% / by this day 83.3% Sun, Aug 30: lights this day 7.8% / by this day 91.1% Tue, Sep 1: lights this day 1.4% / by this day 92.5% Wed, Sep 2: lights this day 1% / by this day 93.5% Thu, Sep 3: lights this day 0.2% / by this day 93.6% Fri, Sep 4: lights this day 0.6% / by this day 94.3% Sat, Sep 5: lights this day 0.6% / by this day 94.8% Sun, Sep 6: lights this day 0.5% / by this day 95.3% Tue, Sep 8: lights this day 0.5% / by this day 95.9% Wed, Sep 9: lights this day 0.5% / by this day 96.3% Thu, Sep 10: lights this day 0.4% / by this day 96.7% Fri, Sep 11: lights this day 0% / by this day 96.7% Sat, Sep 12: lights this day 1.7% / by this day 98.4% Sun, Sep 13: lights this day 0.5% / by this day 98.9% Mon, Sep 14: lights this day 0.3% / by this day 99.2% Tue, Sep 15: lights this day 0.3% / by this day 99.5% Thu, Sep 17: lights this day 0.1% / by this day 99.6% Fri, Sep 18: lights this day 0.1% / by this day 99.7% Sat, Sep 19: lights this day 0.1% / by this day 99.8% Sun, Sep 20: lights this day 0.1% / by this day 99.8% Mon, Sep 21: lights this day 0% / by this day 99.9% Tue, Sep 22: lights this day 0% / by this day 99.9% Wed, Sep 23: lights this day 0% / by this day 99.9% Thu, Sep 24: lights this day 0% / by this day 100% Fri, Sep 25: lights this day 0% / by this day 100% Sun, Sep 27: lights this day 0% / by this day 100% Tue, Sep 29: lights this day 0% / by this day 100% Thu, Oct 1: lights this day 0% / by this day 100%

The share of outcomes in which the magic number lights up on each day. Lighting can also arrive through rival losses, so probability appears even on days the leader does not play. The vertical dashed line is the earliest (best-case) lighting date.

All probabilities are model estimates and do not guarantee outcomes. Probabilities are shown rounded to one decimal place: a displayed 100% does not mean mathematical certainty, nor does 0% mean elimination.

Magic numbers

The smallest number of remaining wins that clinches the pennant regardless of what rivals do (an exact computation that accounts for remaining head-to-head games). Ties are resolved against the club in question, and equal percentages count as losing the tiebreaker (pessimistic convention). This is a different number from the "X more wins" on the pennant line chart, which is a simulated guide to reaching the line.

Central League

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Team Magic Status Left Controls pennant
Hanshin 28 Not lit (in control) 32 Yes
Yomiuri 30 Not lit (in control) 30 Yes
DeNA — Needs help 31 No
Yakult — Needs help 32 No
Chunichi — Needs help 28 No
Hiroshima — Needs help 35 No

No magic number is lit (two or more clubs can still clinch on their own).

Pacific League

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Team Magic Status Left Controls pennant
SoftBank 24 Lit 31 Yes
Seibu — Needs help 27 No
Nippon-Ham — Needs help 27 No
ORIX — Needs help 29 No
Lotte — Needs help 34 No
Rakuten — Needs help 32 No

On Wed, Aug 5, the magic number lit for SoftBank at 37 (retro-computed under the percentage-only rule).

The bar in the magic column shows the magic number as a share of remaining games. The longer the bar, the more of the remaining schedule must be won - the smaller the cushion.

Per-rival breakdown (who sets the magic number)

'Wins needed' is the number of remaining wins required to finish strictly ahead of that rival even if the rival maxes out its remaining games (accounting for remaining head-to-head matchups). The largest of these values is the magic number, and the rival that sets it is the 'target club'.

Breakdown from Hanshin's standpoint

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Rival Wins needed Head-to-head left
Yomiuri Target club 28 5
DeNA 20 7
Yakult 20 7
Chunichi 15 6
Hiroshima 18 7

Breakdown from SoftBank's standpoint

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Rival Wins needed Head-to-head left
Seibu Target club 24 5
Nippon-Ham 21 5
ORIX 16 8
Lotte 17 8
Rakuten 6 5

This season's magic number history (lit, dark, self-control lost and regained)

A day-by-day history recomputed from full game results (percentage-only test; ties and equal percentages resolved pessimistically).

Central League

Date Event
Sun, Jun 7 Chunichi lose the ability to clinch on their own
Wed, Jun 10 Chunichi regain the ability to clinch on their own
Sat, Jun 13 Chunichi lose the ability to clinch on their own
Sun, Jun 14 Chunichi regain the ability to clinch on their own
Tue, Jun 30 Chunichi lose the ability to clinch on their own
Mon (hol), Jul 20 Hiroshima lose the ability to clinch on their own
Fri, Jul 31 DeNA lose the ability to clinch on their own
Sun, Aug 2 Yakult lose the ability to clinch on their own
Tue, Aug 4 DeNA regain the ability to clinch on their own
Thu, Aug 6 DeNA lose the ability to clinch on their own
Sat, Aug 8 DeNA regain the ability to clinch on their own
Tue (hol), Aug 11 DeNA lose the ability to clinch on their own

Pacific League

Date Event
Wed, Jun 10 Rakuten lose the ability to clinch on their own
Fri, Jun 12 Rakuten regain the ability to clinch on their own
Sat, Jun 13 Rakuten lose the ability to clinch on their own
Mon (hol), Jul 20 Lotte lose the ability to clinch on their own
Tue, Jul 21 Lotte regain the ability to clinch on their own
Wed, Jul 22 ORIX lose the ability to clinch on their own
Thu, Jul 23 Lotte lose the ability to clinch on their own
Tue, Aug 4 Seibu lose the ability to clinch on their own
Wed, Aug 5 Nippon-Ham lose the ability to clinch on their own
Wed, Aug 5 SoftBank light up a magic number of 37
Pacific League Magic number trend and countdown pace end of Aug 23, 2026 npbc.media 0 10 20 30 Aug Sep M0 around Sep 22 H M24
Pacific League Magic number trend and countdown pace end of Aug 23, 2026 npbc.media 0 10 20 30 Aug Sep M0 around Sep 22 H M24

Since lighting up on Wed, Aug 5 (M37), 18 days have passed and the number has dropped by 13.

The dashed line is a reference pace toward M0 at the projected clinch date median (Tue (hol), Sep 22) - the same statistical value as the clinch-date page.

Next game day scenarios - where does the magic number land?

Central League

Tue, Aug 25: Hanshin (vs D) × Yomiuri (vs S)

Win Tie Loss
Win Carried over Carried over Lights up (M26)
Tie Carried over Carried over Lights up (M27)
Loss Carried over Carried over Carried over

Rows = Hanshin's result. Columns = Yomiuri's result.

Each cell is an exact recomputation of whether a magic number lights up after those two results. 'Carried over' means those two results alone do not light it (other games' results may still do).

Pacific League

Tue, Aug 25: SoftBank (vs M) × Seibu (vs F)

Win Tie Loss
Win M23 (−1) M23 (−1) M22 (−2)
Tie M24 M23 (−1) M23 (−1)
Loss M24 M24 M23 (−1)

Rows = SoftBank's result. Columns = Seibu's result.

Each cell is the exact recomputed magic number after those two results. When a win coincides with a target-club loss, it can drop by 2 or more at once.

Other same-day games are left unplayed in the evaluation (if another rival loses or ties, the actual value is the same as the cell or smaller).

Magic number lighting dates, last 20 seasons (2006-2025)

This section lists past seasons' results. For the current season, see the status board at the top of the page.

For each season we retro-compute the first game day on which every other club had lost the ability to clinch on its own (= the lighting date), using the percentage-only pessimistic test.

Historical lighting dates and this season's position (last 20 seasons) end of Aug 23, 2026 npbc.media Vertical line = this season (lighting date; projected date if not yet lit) 1 dot = one past season's lighting date Hollow = the lit club missed the pennant that year Central League 2022 result: Tokyo Yakult Swallows lit on Jul 2 (M53) 2008 result: Hanshin Tigers lit on Jul 22 (M46) 2025 result: Hanshin Tigers lit on Jul 27 (M42) 2018 result: Hiroshima Toyo Carp lit on Aug 1 (M44) 2013 result: Yomiuri Giants lit on Aug 9 (M39) 2017 result: Hiroshima Toyo Carp lit on Aug 8 (M33) 2006 result: Chunichi Dragons lit on Aug 12 (M40) 2023 result: Hanshin Tigers lit on Aug 16 (M29) 2012 result: Yomiuri Giants lit on Aug 23 (M30) 2016 result: Hiroshima Toyo Carp lit on Aug 24 (M20) 2019 result: Yomiuri Giants lit on Aug 24 (M20) 2009 result: Yomiuri Giants lit on Aug 27 (M26) 2014 result: Yomiuri Giants lit on Sep 4 (M22) 2010 result: Hanshin Tigers lit on Sep 9 (M19) 2020 result: Yomiuri Giants lit on Sep 15 (M38) 2024 result: Yomiuri Giants lit on Sep 18 (M9) 2007 result: Chunichi Dragons lit on Sep 24 (M7) 2015 result: Tokyo Yakult Swallows lit on Sep 27 (M3) 2021 result: Tokyo Yakult Swallows lit on Oct 8 (M11) 2011 result: Chunichi Dragons lit on Oct 12 (M4) This season's projection: Aug 28 Earliest lighting: 2022 Tokyo Yakult Swallows Jul 2 Latest lighting: 2011 Chunichi Dragons Oct 12 Pacific League 2024 result: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks lit on Jul 30 (M42) 2015 result: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks lit on Aug 5 (M38) 2008 result: Saitama Seibu Lions lit on Aug 19 (M28) 2013 result: Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles lit on Aug 25 (M29) 2023 result: ORIX Buffaloes lit on Aug 26 (M24) 2009 result: Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters lit on Aug 28 (M29) 2016 result: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks lit on Sep 2 (M20) 2017 result: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks lit on Sep 1 (M16) 2006 result: Seibu Lions lit on Sep 5 (M14) 2025 result: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks lit on Sep 5 (M18) 2010 result: Saitama Seibu Lions lit on Sep 11 (M8) 2019 result: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks lit on Sep 12 (M12) 2011 result: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks lit on Sep 17 (M17) 2018 result: Saitama Seibu Lions lit on Sep 17 (M11) 2022 result: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks lit on Sep 15 (M11) 2007 result: Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters lit on Sep 20 (M10) 2014 result: ORIX Buffaloes lit on Sep 25 (M7) 2012 result: Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters lit on Sep 28 (M4) 2021 result: Chiba Lotte Marines lit on Oct 14 (M9) 2020 result: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks lit on Oct 21 (M8) This season: H lit on Aug 5 Earliest lighting: 2024 Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Jul 30 Latest lighting: 2020 Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Oct 21 7/1 7/15 8/1 8/15 9/1 9/15 10/1 10/15
Historical lighting dates and this season's position (last 20 seasons) end of Aug 23, 2026 npbc.media Vertical line = this season (lighting date; projected date if not yet lit) 1 dot = one past season's lighting date Hollow = the lit club missed the pennant that year Central League 2022 result: Tokyo Yakult Swallows lit on Jul 2 (M53) 2008 result: Hanshin Tigers lit on Jul 22 (M46) 2025 result: Hanshin Tigers lit on Jul 27 (M42) 2018 result: Hiroshima Toyo Carp lit on Aug 1 (M44) 2006 result: Chunichi Dragons lit on Aug 12 (M40) 2013 result: Yomiuri Giants lit on Aug 9 (M39) 2017 result: Hiroshima Toyo Carp lit on Aug 8 (M33) 2023 result: Hanshin Tigers lit on Aug 16 (M29) 2009 result: Yomiuri Giants lit on Aug 27 (M26) 2012 result: Yomiuri Giants lit on Aug 23 (M30) 2016 result: Hiroshima Toyo Carp lit on Aug 24 (M20) 2019 result: Yomiuri Giants lit on Aug 24 (M20) 2014 result: Yomiuri Giants lit on Sep 4 (M22) 2010 result: Hanshin Tigers lit on Sep 9 (M19) 2020 result: Yomiuri Giants lit on Sep 15 (M38) 2024 result: Yomiuri Giants lit on Sep 18 (M9) 2007 result: Chunichi Dragons lit on Sep 24 (M7) 2015 result: Tokyo Yakult Swallows lit on Sep 27 (M3) 2021 result: Tokyo Yakult Swallows lit on Oct 8 (M11) 2011 result: Chunichi Dragons lit on Oct 12 (M4) This season's projection: Aug 28 Earliest lighting: 2022 Latest lighting: 2011 Pacific League 2024 result: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks lit on Jul 30 (M42) 2015 result: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks lit on Aug 5 (M38) 2008 result: Saitama Seibu Lions lit on Aug 19 (M28) 2013 result: Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles lit on Aug 25 (M29) 2023 result: ORIX Buffaloes lit on Aug 26 (M24) 2009 result: Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters lit on Aug 28 (M29) 2017 result: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks lit on Sep 1 (M16) 2006 result: Seibu Lions lit on Sep 5 (M14) 2016 result: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks lit on Sep 2 (M20) 2025 result: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks lit on Sep 5 (M18) 2010 result: Saitama Seibu Lions lit on Sep 11 (M8) 2019 result: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks lit on Sep 12 (M12) 2022 result: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks lit on Sep 15 (M11) 2007 result: Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters lit on Sep 20 (M10) 2011 result: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks lit on Sep 17 (M17) 2018 result: Saitama Seibu Lions lit on Sep 17 (M11) 2014 result: ORIX Buffaloes lit on Sep 25 (M7) 2012 result: Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters lit on Sep 28 (M4) 2021 result: Chiba Lotte Marines lit on Oct 14 (M9) 2020 result: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks lit on Oct 21 (M8) This season: H lit on Aug 5 Earliest lighting: 2024 Latest lighting: 2020 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1
Open the full list by year

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Year Central League Pacific League
Team Lit on M at lighting Team Lit on M at lighting
2025 Hanshin Tigers Jul 27 42 Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Sep 5 18
2024 Yomiuri Giants Sep 18 9 Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Jul 30 42
2023 Hanshin Tigers Aug 16 29 ORIX Buffaloes Aug 26 24
2022 Tokyo Yakult Swallows Jul 2 53 Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks ※ Sep 15 11
2021 Tokyo Yakult Swallows Oct 8 11 Chiba Lotte Marines ※ Oct 14 9
2020 Yomiuri Giants Sep 15 38 Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Oct 21 8
2019 Yomiuri Giants Aug 24 20 Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks ※ Sep 12 12
2018 Hiroshima Toyo Carp Aug 1 44 Saitama Seibu Lions Sep 17 11
2017 Hiroshima Toyo Carp Aug 8 33 Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Sep 1 16
2016 Hiroshima Toyo Carp Aug 24 20 Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks ※ Sep 2 20
2015 Tokyo Yakult Swallows Sep 27 3 Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Aug 5 38
2014 Yomiuri Giants Sep 4 22 ORIX Buffaloes ※ Sep 25 7
2013 Yomiuri Giants Aug 9 39 Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles Aug 25 29
2012 Yomiuri Giants Aug 23 30 Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters Sep 28 4
2011 Chunichi Dragons Oct 12 4 Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Sep 17 17
2010 Hanshin Tigers ※ Sep 9 19 Saitama Seibu Lions ※ Sep 11 8
2009 Yomiuri Giants Aug 27 26 Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters Aug 28 29
2008 Hanshin Tigers ※ Jul 22 46 Saitama Seibu Lions Aug 19 28
2007 Chunichi Dragons ※ Sep 24 7 Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters Sep 20 10
2006 Chunichi Dragons Aug 12 40 Seibu Lions ※ Sep 5 14

Years marked ※ are those where the club that lit the magic number differs from the official champion (e.g. it went dark and another club came back).

Magic numbers, formally: lighting, M0, going dark and relighting

The magic number M is the smallest number of remaining wins that clinches the pennant regardless of what rivals do. It is an exact computation that accounts for remaining head-to-head games, assuming the most favorable allocation - winning first the games that give rivals nothing. The day M reaches 0 is the clinch date.

By convention the magic number 'lights up' when every other club has lost the ability to clinch on its own. It can go dark again after a losing stretch (a rival's self-control can revive), so a lit number is not a clinched pennant. A dark number can relight later, and the lit club can even change. The season-history section of this page lists every lighting, unlighting and relighting with its date.

The target club: the rival that sets the number

The magic number can be computed independently against each rival: 'how many of my remaining wins guarantee finishing strictly ahead of this rival even if it maxes out its remaining games'. The largest of those per-rival values is M, and the rival that produces it is the 'target club'. When the target club loses, M can drop without the leader even playing.

The target is not fixed. If the target club keeps losing and its requirement falls, the next rival becomes the new target. The per-rival breakdown table on this page shows which club currently sets M, how many wins are needed against each rival, and how many head-to-head games remain.

Lighting conditions and self-control: elimination it is not

The lighting condition is that exactly one club in the league still controls its own fate. Controlling your own fate means winning out would clinch the pennant regardless of other results. In other words, a magic number lights up not when a club achieves something, but at the moment every other club's self-control disappears.

Losing self-control is not elimination: the club can still win the pennant if rivals drop games, and control can be regained as the race unfolds. In this page's test, ties are resolved in the least favorable way for the club in question (as losses) and equal percentages count as losing the tiebreaker (a pessimistic convention).

How M falls: sometimes by 2 or more at once

The basic pattern is 'your win takes 1 off; a target-club loss takes 1 off'. Beating the target club head-to-head does both at once, and if the target changes at the same time, the number can move even further. Conversely, your own loss never increases M (it just fails to shrink) - but if a rival regains self-control, the number goes dark.

So that you never need to memorize these rules, the scenario table on this page recomputes M exactly for every win-loss combination of the next game day's cards. The description above is only a guide; the exact values in the scenario table are authoritative.

Frequently asked questions

What is a magic number?

The smallest number of remaining wins that clinches the pennant regardless of rivals. It 'lights up' when every other club loses the ability to clinch on its own, and the day it reaches 0 is the clinch date.

What is the magic number's 'target club'?

Among the per-rival wins-needed values, the rival that produces the largest one. Since the magic number equals that maximum, a target-club loss can shrink M even on the leader's day off. The target changes as the standings evolve.

Can a lit magic number disappear?

Yes. A lit number means every other club has lost self-control, so a losing stretch that revives any rival's self-control puts the number out. It relights when the condition holds again. This page's season history lists each lighting, unlighting and relighting with dates.

What happens at M0?

The day M reaches 0 is the clinch date (by percentage alone). For the outlook on when M0 is likely - the projected clinch-date distribution - see the projected clinch dates page.

Are the lighting forecasts official or guaranteed?

No. The 'earliest' date is a best-case guide assuming the most favorable run of results, and the 'projected' date is a statistical distribution (median and 80% range) from simulations of the remaining games. Neither guarantees an outcome, and both move daily with the season. Actual game results decide the lighting.

Sources and references

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