How many wins to the CS line?
Third-place DeNA are 17 wins away from the CS line (31 games left). Third-place Nippon-Ham are 14 wins away from the CS line (27 games left).
- Hanshin To the CS line 4 more wins 63 W 47 L 1 T, 32 left At a .500 pace: 79 wins → clears the CS line
- Yomiuri To the CS line 7 more wins 60 W 51 L 2 T, 30 left At a .500 pace: 75 wins → clears the CS line
- DeNA To the CS line 17 more wins 50 W 59 L 3 T, 31 left At a .500 pace: 65 - 66 wins → 1 short of the CS line
- Yakult To the CS line 17 more wins 50 W 60 L 1 T, 32 left At a .500 pace: 66 wins → 1 short of the CS line
- Chunichi To the CS line 18 more wins 49 W 65 L 1 T, 28 left At a .500 pace: 63 wins → 4 short of the CS line
- Hiroshima To the CS line 23 more wins 44 W 60 L 4 T, 35 left At a .500 pace: 61 - 62 wins → 5 short of the CS line
- SoftBank To the CS line 8 more wins 69 W 41 L 2 T, 31 left At a .500 pace: 84 - 85 wins → clears the CS line
- Seibu To the CS line 12 more wins 65 W 48 L 3 T, 27 left At a .500 pace: 78 - 79 wins → clears the CS line
- Nippon-Ham To the CS line 14 more wins 63 W 52 L 1 T, 27 left At a .500 pace: 76 - 77 wins → right at the CS line
- ORIX To the CS line 22 more wins 55 W 57 L 2 T, 29 left At a .500 pace: 69 - 70 wins → 7 short of the CS line
- Lotte To the CS line 26 more wins 51 W 55 L 3 T, 34 left At a .500 pace: 68 wins → 9 short of the CS line
- Rakuten Out of reach this season 43 W 67 L 1 T, 32 left
"X more wins" counts down to the simulated median pennant / CS lines - a guide to reaching the line, not the magic numbers (pennant or CS) that guarantee a clinch. Read how this differs from magic numbers
All probabilities are model estimates and do not guarantee outcomes.
And the pennant line? See the pennant-line lookup
How does tonight's game move the odds? See tonight's scenario board
Reachable win ranges
Each bar runs from losing out (current wins) to winning out. Vertical lines mark the simulated median pennant and Climax Series lines. The small tick on each bar marks where the club lands if it plays .500 ball the rest of the way.
View as a table
From the simulated final standings: the share of simulated seasons in which a final total of X wins was enough to clear the line. Standings are decided by winning percentage, so ties can shift the outcome at the same win total.
| Final wins | Enough for the Climax Series (top 3) (%) | Enough to win the pennant (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 68 | 82 | 0 |
| 69 | 91 | 0 |
| 70 | 96 | 0 |
| 71 | 99 | 0 |
| 72 | 100 | 0 |
| 73 | 100 | 0 |
| 74 | 100 | 0 |
| 75 | 100 | 1 |
| 76 | 100 | 2 |
| 77 | 100 | 6 |
| 78 | 100 | 13 |
| 79 | 100 | 24 |
| 80 | 100 | 37 |
| 81 | 100 | 52 |
| 82 | 100 | 66 |
| 83 | 100 | 78 |
| 84 | 100 | 88 |
| 85 | 100 | 94 |
| 86 | 100 | 97 |
| 87 | 100 | 99 |
| 88 | 100 | 100 |
| 89 | 100 | 100 |
| 90 | 100 | 100 |
| 91 | 100 | 100 |
| 92 | 100 | 100 |
| 93 | 100 | 100 |
| Final wins | Enough for the Climax Series (top 3) (%) | Enough to win the pennant (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0 | 0 |
| 71 | 1 | 0 |
| 72 | 3 | 0 |
| 73 | 8 | 0 |
| 74 | 16 | 0 |
| 75 | 30 | 0 |
| 76 | 47 | 0 |
| 77 | 65 | 0 |
| 78 | 81 | 0 |
| 79 | 91 | 0 |
| 80 | 97 | 0 |
| 81 | 99 | 1 |
| 82 | 100 | 2 |
| 83 | 100 | 6 |
| 84 | 100 | 12 |
| 85 | 100 | 21 |
| 86 | 100 | 33 |
| 87 | 100 | 47 |
| 88 | 100 | 62 |
| 89 | 100 | 75 |
| 90 | 100 | 86 |
| 91 | 100 | 93 |
| 92 | 100 | 97 |
| 93 | 100 | 99 |
| 94 | 100 | 100 |
All probabilities are model estimates and do not guarantee outcomes.
Side-by-side wins needed by club
Each row is a final win total, and each cell is the remaining record needed to reach it. Reading across a row compares the records that would leave the clubs level on wins. The top row shows each club's maximum if they win out. The '.500 pace' mark inside a cell shows where that club lands if it plays .500 ball the rest of the way (rounded up when the club has an odd number of games left). Standings are decided by winning percentage, so ties can shift the order at the same win total.
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| Final wins | T | G | DB | S | D | C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| If they win out | 95 wins | 90 wins | 81 wins | 82 wins | 77 wins | 79 wins |
| … | ||||||
| 80 wins | 17 - 15 | 20 - 10 | 30 - 1 | 30 - 2 | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 79 wins | 16 - 16.500 pace | 19 - 11 | 29 - 2 | 29 - 3 | Out of reach | 35 - 0 |
| 78 wins | 15 - 17 | 18 - 12 | 28 - 3 | 28 - 4 | Out of reach | 34 - 1 |
| 77 wins | 14 - 18 | 17 - 13 | 27 - 4 | 27 - 5 | 28 - 0 | 33 - 2 |
| 76 wins | 13 - 19 | 16 - 14 | 26 - 5 | 26 - 6 | 27 - 1 | 32 - 3 |
| 75 wins | 12 - 20 | 15 - 15.500 pace | 25 - 6 | 25 - 7 | 26 - 2 | 31 - 4 |
| 74 wins | 11 - 21 | 14 - 16 | 24 - 7 | 24 - 8 | 25 - 3 | 30 - 5 |
| 73 wins | 10 - 22 | 13 - 17 | 23 - 8 | 23 - 9 | 24 - 4 | 29 - 6 |
| 72 wins | 9 - 23 | 12 - 18 | 22 - 9 | 22 - 10 | 23 - 5 | 28 - 7 |
| 71 wins | 8 - 24 | 11 - 19 | 21 - 10 | 21 - 11 | 22 - 6 | 27 - 8 |
| 70 wins | 7 - 25 | 10 - 20 | 20 - 11 | 20 - 12 | 21 - 7 | 26 - 9 |
| 69 wins | 6 - 26 | 9 - 21 | 19 - 12 | 19 - 13 | 20 - 8 | 25 - 10 |
| 68 wins | 5 - 27 | 8 - 22 | 18 - 13 | 18 - 14 | 19 - 9 | 24 - 11 |
| 67 winsMedian CS line | 4 - 28 | 7 - 23 | 17 - 14 | 17 - 15 | 18 - 10 | 23 - 12 |
| 66 wins | 3 - 29 | 6 - 24 | 16 - 15.500 pace | 16 - 16.500 pace | 17 - 11 | 22 - 13 |
| 65 wins | 2 - 30 | 5 - 25 | 15 - 16 | 15 - 17 | 16 - 12 | 21 - 14 |
| 64 wins | 1 - 31 | 4 - 26 | 14 - 17 | 14 - 18 | 15 - 13 | 20 - 15 |
| 63 wins | Reached | 3 - 27 | 13 - 18 | 13 - 19 | 14 - 14.500 pace | 19 - 16 |
| 62 wins | Reached | 2 - 28 | 12 - 19 | 12 - 20 | 13 - 15 | 18 - 17.500 pace |
| 61 wins | Reached | 1 - 29 | 11 - 20 | 11 - 21 | 12 - 16 | 17 - 18 |
Scroll right for more
| Final wins | H | L | F | B | M | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| If they win out | 100 wins | 92 wins | 90 wins | 84 wins | 85 wins | 75 wins |
| … | ||||||
| 86 wins | 17 - 14 | 21 - 6 | 23 - 4 | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 85 wins | 16 - 15.500 pace | 20 - 7 | 22 - 5 | Out of reach | 34 - 0 | Out of reach |
| 84 wins | 15 - 16 | 19 - 8 | 21 - 6 | 29 - 0 | 33 - 1 | Out of reach |
| 83 wins | 14 - 17 | 18 - 9 | 20 - 7 | 28 - 1 | 32 - 2 | Out of reach |
| 82 wins | 13 - 18 | 17 - 10 | 19 - 8 | 27 - 2 | 31 - 3 | Out of reach |
| 81 wins | 12 - 19 | 16 - 11 | 18 - 9 | 26 - 3 | 30 - 4 | Out of reach |
| 80 wins | 11 - 20 | 15 - 12 | 17 - 10 | 25 - 4 | 29 - 5 | Out of reach |
| 79 wins | 10 - 21 | 14 - 13.500 pace | 16 - 11 | 24 - 5 | 28 - 6 | Out of reach |
| 78 wins | 9 - 22 | 13 - 14 | 15 - 12 | 23 - 6 | 27 - 7 | Out of reach |
| 77 winsMedian CS line | 8 - 23 | 12 - 15 | 14 - 13.500 pace | 22 - 7 | 26 - 8 | Out of reach |
| 76 wins | 7 - 24 | 11 - 16 | 13 - 14 | 21 - 8 | 25 - 9 | Out of reach |
| 75 wins | 6 - 25 | 10 - 17 | 12 - 15 | 20 - 9 | 24 - 10 | 32 - 0 |
| 74 wins | 5 - 26 | 9 - 18 | 11 - 16 | 19 - 10 | 23 - 11 | 31 - 1 |
| 73 wins | 4 - 27 | 8 - 19 | 10 - 17 | 18 - 11 | 22 - 12 | 30 - 2 |
| 72 wins | 3 - 28 | 7 - 20 | 9 - 18 | 17 - 12 | 21 - 13 | 29 - 3 |
| 71 wins | 2 - 29 | 6 - 21 | 8 - 19 | 16 - 13 | 20 - 14 | 28 - 4 |
| 70 wins | 1 - 30 | 5 - 22 | 7 - 20 | 15 - 14.500 pace | 19 - 15 | 27 - 5 |
| 69 wins | Reached | 4 - 23 | 6 - 21 | 14 - 15 | 18 - 16 | 26 - 6 |
| 68 wins | Reached | 3 - 24 | 5 - 22 | 13 - 16 | 17 - 17.500 pace | 25 - 7 |
| 67 wins | Reached | 2 - 25 | 4 - 23 | 12 - 17 | 16 - 18 | 24 - 8 |
| 66 wins | Reached | 1 - 26 | 3 - 24 | 11 - 18 | 15 - 19 | 23 - 9 |
| 65 wins | Reached | Reached | 2 - 25 | 10 - 19 | 14 - 20 | 22 - 10 |
| 64 wins | Reached | Reached | 1 - 26 | 9 - 20 | 13 - 21 | 21 - 11 |
| 63 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | 8 - 21 | 12 - 22 | 20 - 12 |
| 62 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | 7 - 22 | 11 - 23 | 19 - 13 |
| 61 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | 6 - 23 | 10 - 24 | 18 - 14 |
| 60 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | 5 - 24 | 9 - 25 | 17 - 15 |
| 59 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | 4 - 25 | 8 - 26 | 16 - 16.500 pace |
| 58 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | 3 - 26 | 7 - 27 | 15 - 17 |
All probabilities are model estimates and do not guarantee outcomes.
How many wins were enough? (line curves)
Each step curve shows the share of simulated seasons in which a final total of X wins was enough to clear the line. The win total where a curve crosses 50% is the median guide for that line.
Roughly 67 wins for the CS line and 81 for the pennant are the 50-50 guides. If third-place DeNA play .500 ball the rest of the way, their landing spot (66 wins) was enough for the CS line in 48% of the simulated outcomes.
Roughly 77 wins for the CS line and 88 for the pennant are the 50-50 guides. If third-place Nippon-Ham play .500 ball the rest of the way, their landing spot (77 wins) was enough for the CS line in 65% of the simulated outcomes.
Projected CS clinch dates and CS berth magic numbers now have a dedicated page. CS clinch date & magic
What the CS line is: top three by winning percentage
The top three clubs of each league's regular season advance to the Climax Series. Standings are decided by winning percentage (wins divided by decisions) with ties dropped from the denominator, so at the same win total a club with more ties shows a higher percentage. 'How many wins gets you to the CS' is therefore a relative number that depends on that season's ties and on who is fighting for third place.
The CS line on this page comes from repeated simulated runs of the remaining schedule: for each simulated season we record whether a final total of X wins was enough for a top-three finish. The 'median CS line' is the smallest win total at which that share exceeds 50 percent - the single most quotable number, though the real answer is a distribution.
The win total you roughly need to win the pennant (the pennant line) has its own lookup page in the same format. The charts on this page also show the pennant line as a reference.
The same model as the odds board
The computation uses the same model as the pennant race odds board. Every simulated season is ranked with the official standings rules, tiebreakers included. The numbers are estimates from this site's own statistical simulation, not official announcements.
Frequently asked questions
How many wins is the CS berth line?
There is no fixed number. The CS line is relative - it depends on how far the clubs fighting for third place climb, and it moves every day with the season and the number of ties. The top of this page shows the median of the simulated distribution as today's guide.
How does this differ from the pennant line?
The pennant line is the final win total you roughly need to finish first; the CS line is what you need for a top-three finish. They are driven by different races - the pennant line by how far the runner-up climbs, the CS line by the fourth-place club - and the pennant line has its own lookup page.
What is the Climax Series?
It is NPB's postseason format in which the top three clubs of each league play for the right to reach the Japan Series, held in both leagues since 2007. A third-place finish keeps the road to the championship open even without a pennant.