Japan Series & championship odds board
The three probability columns are the three gates to the championship, laid out left to right. ① 'CS Final Stage odds' is the share of simulated seasons in which the club reached the CS Final Stage - by winning the pennant or by coming through the First Stage. ② 'Japan Series odds' is the share in which it then came through the Climax Series and reached the Japan Series (the same thing as surviving the CS). ③ 'Championship odds' counts the seasons in which it went on to win the Japan Series. Each further gate can only keep the probability the same or make it smaller. A club that misses the pennant can still win it all through the CS, so its championship odds can exceed its pennant odds. Clubs are sorted by Japan Series odds; 'Standing' is the club's place in the official table.
Central League
Scroll right for W-L, PCT and more
| Standing | Team | Three gates to the championship (narrowing left to right) | W - L - T | PCT | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CS Final Stage odds | Japan Series odds | Championship odds | ||||
| 1 | Hanshin | 63 - 47 - 1 | .573 | |||
| 2 | Yomiuri | 60 - 51 - 2 | .541 | |||
| 3 | DeNA | 50 - 59 - 3 | .459 | |||
| 4 | Yakult | 50 - 60 - 1 | .455 | |||
| 5 | Chunichi | 49 - 65 - 1 | .430 | |||
| 6 | Hiroshima | 44 - 60 - 4 | .423 | |||
Pacific League
Scroll right for W-L, PCT and more
| Standing | Team | Three gates to the championship (narrowing left to right) | W - L - T | PCT | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CS Final Stage odds | Japan Series odds | Championship odds | ||||
| 1 | SoftBank | 69 - 41 - 2 | .627 | |||
| 2 | Seibu | 65 - 48 - 3 | .575 | |||
| 3 | Nippon-Ham | 63 - 52 - 1 | .548 | |||
| 4 | ORIX | 55 - 57 - 2 | .491 | |||
| 5 | Lotte | 51 - 55 - 3 | .481 | |||
| 6 | Rakuten | 43 - 67 - 1 | .391 | |||
CS Final Stage odds do not sum to 100% because two teams advance from each league. Japan Series odds are defined so that the six teams in each league total 100%, and Championship odds so that all twelve teams total 100%, but the displayed totals may not match exactly because each value is rounded to one decimal place.
All probabilities are model estimates and do not guarantee outcomes.
What are the odds of just reaching the CS? CS berth odds
Japan Series odds over time
The same model re-run on each day's data, backfilled to opening day.
Reading the board - and how the postseason works
Each league board lists all six clubs in descending order of Japan Series odds. The three probability columns are the three gates to the championship, read left to right: ① 'CS Final Stage odds' is the chance of reaching the CS Final Stage, either by winning the pennant or by coming through the First Stage; ② 'Japan Series odds' means the same thing as the chance of surviving the Climax Series; ③ 'championship odds' is the chance of then winning the Japan Series itself. Each further gate can only keep the probability the same or make it smaller. 'Standing' shows the club's place in the official table - a lower-placed club can carry better odds when its remaining schedule and underlying strength favour it.
The simulated postseason follows the official format. In the CS First Stage the second- and third-place clubs play a best-of-three (first to two wins, all games hosted by the runner-up). In the Final Stage the league champion starts with a one-win advantage over a maximum of six games (first to four counting the advantage, all games at the champion's park), and the winner advances to the Japan Series, where the two league representatives play first to four wins for the championship.
Reading the odds-over-time chart
The chart re-runs the same model on each day's data, backfilled to opening day, and plots the estimated Japan Series odds. Because the numbers respond to the race for third place as well as the pennant race, the lines change hands more often than the pennant odds chart.
A displayed 100% or 0% is the result of rounding to one decimal place and does not necessarily mean mathematical certainty or elimination. The odds of simply reaching the Climax Series zone - a league's top three - live on the Climax Series odds page.
The same model as the odds board
The computation uses the same model as the pennant race odds board. Every simulated season is first ranked with the official standings rules, tiebreakers included, and the resulting order then plays out the Climax Series and the Japan Series. The numbers are estimates from this site's own statistical simulation, not official announcements. They are based on regular-season results only; actual postseason game results are not reflected in these odds.
Frequently asked questions
What exactly are Japan Series odds?
It is the share of simulated completions of the remaining schedule - carried on through the Climax Series - in which the club survived the CS and reached the Japan Series. It means the same thing as the chance of coming through the CS, and it is an estimate that moves with the season, not a definitive call.
How do Japan Series odds differ from championship odds?
Both come from the same simulation as shares of seasons reaching a stage: Japan Series odds count the seasons that reached gate ② (the Japan Series), while championship odds count those that also cleared the final gate ③ (winning the Japan Series). Since winning it always requires reaching it first, a club's championship odds can never exceed its Japan Series odds.
How do championship odds differ from pennant odds?
Pennant odds - the chance of finishing first in the league - are the metric of the pennant race odds board. Championship odds measure reaching the very top of the postseason: a club that misses the pennant can still win it all by coming through the Climax Series, so clubs with slim pennant odds keep meaningful championship odds - as DeNA showed in 2024 by winning the Japan Series from third place.
How is the league champion's advantage reflected?
The one-win advantage is reflected exactly as a counted win: the CS Final Stage starts with the league champion one win ahead, and if neither side reaches the required wins within the scheduled games, the club with more wins - advantage included - advances, with the higher-placed club going through on a tie. With equal strength, a better finish therefore means an easier path to the Japan Series. The rule that the champion hosts every Final Stage game is part of the official format; home-field advantage itself is not factored into the odds on this page.
Does 100% or 0% mean it is decided?
Not necessarily. Displayed values are rounded to one decimal place, so 100% or 0% can appear before anything is mathematically settled. And because the postseason is a short series, these odds converge more slowly than regular-season numbers. For the mathematical state of the CS zone itself, see the CS clinch-date page.