Pennant prediction accuracy

Top-pick hit rate

As of Oct 8 100%
End of Aug 73.7%
End of Sep 89.5%
Season end 100%

Coverage: 2007–2025, Central and Pacific Leagues

How well this site's pennant odds matched the actual league champions across 2007–2025 (19 seasons).

Hit rate through the season

Hit rate through the season2007–2025npbc.media0%20%40%60%80%100%AprMayJunJulAugSepOct100%

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Hit rate through the season2007–2025npbc.media0%20%40%60%80%100%AprJunAugOct100%

Hit rate by point in season

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PointCases
(league × season)		Hit rateCS berth
hit rate		Finish
hit rate		Within
1 place		Mean
gap
As of Oct 838100%97.4%95.6%100%0.04
End of Mar3218.8%61.5%21.9%52.6%1.67
End of Apr3630.6%71.3%24.1%64.4%1.30
End of May3644.4%84.3%37.0%75.5%0.98
End of Jun3855.3%83.3%38.6%80.7%0.87
End of Jul3873.7%85.1%56.6%88.2%0.60
End of Aug3873.7%91.2%56.1%92.5%0.54
End of Sep3889.5%93.9%80.7%98.2%0.21
Season end38100%100%100%100%0.00
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Hits and misses by year and league

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YearCentral League championCS berthPacific League championCS berth
2025◎Hanshin Tigers3 / 3◎Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks3 / 3
2024×Yomiuri GiantsTop pick then: Hiroshima Toyo Carp (59%)2 / 3◎Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks3 / 3
2023◎Hanshin Tigers3 / 3◎ORIX Buffaloes3 / 3
2022◎Tokyo Yakult Swallows3 / 3×ORIX BuffaloesTop pick then: Saitama Seibu Lions (44.8%)3 / 3
2021×Tokyo Yakult SwallowsTop pick then: Yomiuri Giants (43.1%)3 / 3◎ORIX Buffaloes3 / 3
2020◎Yomiuri Giants2 / 3◎Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks2 / 3
2019◎Yomiuri Giants2 / 3×Saitama Seibu LionsTop pick then: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (52.2%)3 / 3
2018◎Hiroshima Toyo Carp3 / 3◎Saitama Seibu Lions3 / 3
2017◎Hiroshima Toyo Carp3 / 3◎Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks3 / 3
2016◎Hiroshima Toyo Carp3 / 3×Hokkaido Nippon-Ham FightersTop pick then: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (59.1%)3 / 3
2015×Tokyo Yakult SwallowsTop pick then: Hanshin Tigers (32.8%)3 / 3◎Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks2 / 3
2014◎Yomiuri Giants3 / 3◎Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks3 / 3
2013◎Yomiuri Giants3 / 3◎Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles2 / 3
2012◎Yomiuri Giants2 / 3×Hokkaido Nippon-Ham FightersTop pick then: Saitama Seibu Lions (50.7%)3 / 3
2011×Chunichi DragonsTop pick then: Tokyo Yakult Swallows (42%)2 / 3◎Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks2 / 3
2010×Chunichi DragonsTop pick then: Hanshin Tigers (60.2%)3 / 3◎Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks3 / 3
2009◎Yomiuri Giants3 / 3◎Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters3 / 3
2008×Yomiuri GiantsTop pick then: Hanshin Tigers (94.8%)3 / 3◎Saitama Seibu Lions2 / 3
2007◎Yomiuri Giants3 / 3◎Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters3 / 3

◎ = the top pick at the end of Aug won the league / × = miss (the club shown is the actual champion)

Comeback championships

2022 Pacific League: eventual champion ORIX Buffaloes was still not the top pick as of Oct 1 (odds on that date: 22.3%; season low: 0%).

2008 Central League: eventual champion Yomiuri Giants was still not the top pick as of Oct 5 (odds on that date: 49.6%; season low: 0.1%).

2021 Pacific League: eventual champion ORIX Buffaloes was still not the top pick as of Oct 24 (odds on that date: 35.4%; season low: 1.9%).

Definitions and disclaimer

  • A “hit” means the club with the highest pennant odds at that point (computed retroactively from the games played up to that point in each season) actually won the league.
  • The “CS berth hit rate” is the share of the top three clubs by CS berth odds at that point that actually finished in their league's top three.
  • In the by-year table, “CS berth” is how many of the top three clubs by CS berth odds at the end of Aug actually finished in their league's top three.
  • The “finish hit rate” is the share of clubs whose forecast finish at that point matched their actual final place. “Within 1 place” is the share that was off by one place at most, and the “mean gap” is the average number of places between the forecast and the actual finish.
  • The estimated figures are worked out by this site and are not official announcements.
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