Hit rate by point in season
Share of league-seasons in which the club with the highest pennant odds at that point went on to win the league. “CS berth hit rate” is the share of the top three clubs by CS berth odds at that point (per league) that actually finished the season in their league's top three (an A-class finish).
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| Point | Cases | Hit rate | CS berth hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| End of Mar | 32 | 15.6% | 60.4% |
| End of Apr | 36 | 33.3% | 69.4% |
| End of May | 36 | 44.4% | 81.5% |
| End of Jun | 38 | 55.3% | 83.3% |
| End of Jul | 38 | 73.7% | 86.0% |
| End of Aug | 38 | 73.7% | 91.2% |
| End of Sep | 38 | 89.5% | 93.9% |
| Season end | 38 | 100% | 100% |
“Cases” is the number of league-season pairs that could be judged at that point (up to 38 = 19 seasons × 2 leagues). Seasons with no prediction data at that point, such as those that had not yet opened, are not counted.
Hit rate through the season
How the top-pick hit rate changes as the season progresses. The rightmost point is the end of the regular-season schedule.
Hits and misses by year and league
Comparison between the club with the highest pennant odds at the end of Aug and the actual league champion.
| Year | Central League champion | Pacific League champion |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | ◎Hanshin Tigers | ◎Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks |
| 2024 | ×Yomiuri GiantsTop pick then: Hiroshima Toyo Carp (57.9%) | ◎Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks |
| 2023 | ◎Hanshin Tigers | ◎ORIX Buffaloes |
| 2022 | ◎Tokyo Yakult Swallows | ×ORIX BuffaloesTop pick then: Saitama Seibu Lions (43.6%) |
| 2021 | ×Tokyo Yakult SwallowsTop pick then: Yomiuri Giants (45.5%) | ◎ORIX Buffaloes |
| 2020 | ◎Yomiuri Giants | ◎Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks |
| 2019 | ◎Yomiuri Giants | ×Saitama Seibu LionsTop pick then: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (52.1%) |
| 2018 | ◎Hiroshima Toyo Carp | ◎Saitama Seibu Lions |
| 2017 | ◎Hiroshima Toyo Carp | ◎Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks |
| 2016 | ◎Hiroshima Toyo Carp | ×Hokkaido Nippon-Ham FightersTop pick then: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (63.2%) |
| 2015 | ×Tokyo Yakult SwallowsTop pick then: Yomiuri Giants (33.7%) | ◎Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks |
| 2014 | ◎Yomiuri Giants | ◎Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks |
| 2013 | ◎Yomiuri Giants | ◎Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles |
| 2012 | ◎Yomiuri Giants | ×Hokkaido Nippon-Ham FightersTop pick then: Saitama Seibu Lions (48.7%) |
| 2011 | ×Chunichi DragonsTop pick then: Tokyo Yakult Swallows (44.3%) | ◎Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks |
| 2010 | ×Chunichi DragonsTop pick then: Hanshin Tigers (61%) | ◎Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks |
| 2009 | ◎Yomiuri Giants | ◎Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters |
| 2008 | ×Yomiuri GiantsTop pick then: Hanshin Tigers (95.8%) | ◎Saitama Seibu Lions |
| 2007 | ◎Yomiuri Giants | ◎Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters |
◎ = hit (the top pick at the end of Aug won the league); × = miss. In every cell the club shown next to the mark is the actual league champion. For misses, the top pick at the reference point and its odds at that time are also shown. Each year links to that season's detail page.
Comeback championships
Seasons in which the eventual champion was not the top pick until late in the season, listed in order of how late the final switch happened.
2022 Pacific League: eventual champion ORIX Buffaloes was still not the top pick as of Oct 1 (odds on that date: 22.2%; season low: 0%).
2008 Central League: eventual champion Yomiuri Giants was still not the top pick as of Oct 5 (odds on that date: 45.8%; season low: 0%).
2021 Pacific League: eventual champion ORIX Buffaloes was still not the top pick as of Oct 24 (odds on that date: 38.3%; season low: 0.4%).
Definitions and disclaimer
- A “hit” means the club with the single highest pennant odds on this site at that point matched the actual league champion of that season.
- The “CS berth hit rate” is the share of the top three clubs by this site's CS berth odds at that point (per league) that actually finished the season in their league's top three (an A-class finish). If clubs were tied at the cutoff, the order would be settled by the club's letter code; no such tie occurs in the covered period. The judgment is based on final regular-season standings, so seasons with an irregular postseason format are counted by the same standard.
- Odds for past seasons are retrospective values obtained by applying this site's current pennant odds calculation to the games played up to each date. They are not predictions that were published at the time.
- Coverage is the 2007–2025 seasons (19 seasons, Central and Pacific Leagues). Earlier seasons are out of scope.
- From 2004 to 2006 the Pacific League decided its champion through a playoff among the top regular-season clubs, so the league title was determined differently from the current format, in which the regular-season leader wins the pennant. To keep both leagues on the same footing, coverage starts in 2007, when the current format applied to both.
- The figures on this page describe past tendencies and do not guarantee prediction accuracy in future seasons.