When Will NPB Climax Series Berths Be Clinched? Projected Dates and CS Magic Numbers (2026)

Data as of Aug 23, 2026

Central League

Hanshin Sun, Sep 13
Yomiuri Fri, Sep 18
DeNA Sun, Sep 27

Pacific League

SoftBank Sat, Sep 12
Seibu Sat, Sep 19
Nippon-Ham Tue, Sep 22

end of Aug 23, 2026 · npbc.media

As of the end of Aug 23, 2026: in the Central League, third-place DeNA are projected to clinch around Sun, Sep 27; in the Pacific League, third-place Nippon-Ham are projected to clinch around Tue, Sep 22.

This page tracks 'when will CS berths be decided?' in two ways: a simulated distribution of projected clinch dates for the remaining schedule, and CS berth magic numbers - how many more wins make a top-three finish mathematically certain. Pennant clinch dates and magic numbers have their own page.

Projected Climax Series (top-three) clinch dates

For each club, when its Climax Series berth (a top-three finish) would likely be clinched if it does reach the top three. For how likely that is, see the CS odds page. Clubs whose top-three finish is already mathematically certain are shown as 'Clinched'.

In the chart, each bar spans the 8-in-10 view and the tick on the bar marks the guide (median) date.

Central League Projected Climax Series (top-three) clinch dates end of Aug 23, 2026 npbc.media 9/1 9/8 9/15 9/22 10/1 Today Hanshin 100% Guide: Sep 13 Hanshin: as early as Sep 11, as late as Sep 18 (guide Sep 13) Yomiuri 99.9% Guide: Sep 18 Yomiuri: as early as Sep 13, as late as Sep 22 (guide Sep 18) DeNA 53.9% Guide: Sep 27 DeNA: as early as Sep 23, as late as Oct 3 (guide Sep 27) Yakult 31.2% Guide: Sep 29 Yakult: as early as Sep 25, as late as Oct 3 (guide Sep 29) Chunichi 10% Guide: Sep 30 Chunichi: as early as Sep 26, as late as Oct 3 (guide Sep 30) Hiroshima 5% Guide: Oct 1 Hiroshima: as early as Sep 27, as late as Oct 3 (guide Oct 1)
Central League Projected Climax Series (top-three) clinch dates end of Aug 23, 2026 npbc.media 9/1 9/15 10/1 Today T 100% Guide: Sep 13 Hanshin: as early as Sep 11, as late as Sep 18 (guide Sep 13) G 99.9% Guide: Sep 18 Yomiuri: as early as Sep 13, as late as Sep 22 (guide Sep 18) DB 53.9% DeNA: as early as Sep 23, as late as Oct 3 (guide Sep 27) S 31.2% Yakult: as early as Sep 25, as late as Oct 3 (guide Sep 29) D 10% Chunichi: as early as Sep 26, as late as Oct 3 (guide Sep 30) C 5% Hiroshima: as early as Sep 27, as late as Oct 3 (guide Oct 1)
Pacific League Projected Climax Series (top-three) clinch dates end of Aug 23, 2026 npbc.media 9/1 9/8 9/15 9/22 10/1 Today SoftBank 100% Guide: Sep 12 SoftBank: as early as Sep 9, as late as Sep 16 (guide Sep 12) Seibu 99.8% Guide: Sep 19 Seibu: as early as Sep 15, as late as Sep 25 (guide Sep 19) Nippon-Ham 97.7% Guide: Sep 22 Nippon-Ham: as early as Sep 19, as late as Sep 27 (guide Sep 22) ORIX 1.5% Guide: Sep 29 ORIX: as early as Sep 27, as late as Oct 3 (guide Sep 29) Lotte 1% Guide: Oct 3 Lotte: as early as Sep 29, as late as Oct 4 (guide Oct 3) Rakuten 0% Not projected - a CS berth needs a comeback from 17.5 games behind 3rd
Pacific League Projected Climax Series (top-three) clinch dates end of Aug 23, 2026 npbc.media 9/1 9/15 10/1 Today H 100% Guide: Sep 12 SoftBank: as early as Sep 9, as late as Sep 16 (guide Sep 12) L 99.8% Guide: Sep 19 Seibu: as early as Sep 15, as late as Sep 25 (guide Sep 19) F 97.7% Nippon-Ham: as early as Sep 19, as late as Sep 27 (guide Sep 22) B 1.5% ORIX: as early as Sep 27, as late as Oct 3 (guide Sep 29) M 1% Lotte: as early as Sep 29, as late as Oct 4 (guide Oct 3) E 0% Not projected (17.5 GB of 3rd)
View as a table

Central League

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Team Climax Series odds Guide
Hanshin 100% Sun, Sep 13
Yomiuri 99.9% Fri, Sep 18
DeNA 53.9% Sun, Sep 27
Yakult 31.2% Tue, Sep 29
Chunichi 10% Wed, Sep 30
Hiroshima 5% Thu, Oct 1

Pacific League

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Team Climax Series odds Guide
SoftBank 100% Sat, Sep 12
Seibu 99.8% Sat, Sep 19
Nippon-Ham 97.7% Tue (hol), Sep 22
ORIX 1.5% Tue, Sep 29
Lotte 1% Sat, Oct 3
Rakuten 0% —

Remaining games are placed on their announced schedule dates (scheduled final day: Sun, Oct 4). Future rainouts and rescheduled games are not reflected. 3 game(s) without an announced make-up date are placed approximately.

A guide date is listed even for clubs shown at 0% as long as some probability remains before rounding; clubs whose outcome never appeared in the simulation are outside the forecast.

All probabilities are model estimates and do not guarantee outcomes. Probabilities are shown rounded to one decimal place: a displayed 100% does not mean mathematical certainty, nor does 0% mean elimination.

What are the CS odds right now? CS berth odds
How many wins to the CS line? CS line table
And the pennant clinch dates? Projected clinch dates

CS berth magic numbers

A safe-side guide (upper bound) to the number of wins that clinches a top-three finish (a Climax Series berth) regardless of what rivals do. Unlike the pennant magic number, which is computed exactly, this test leans conservative: a club may in fact clinch with fewer wins than shown, but the shown number of wins always suffices. Ties and equal percentages are resolved unfavorably, as with the pennant magic number. 'Controls top 3' means the club would finish top three by winning out, shown only when mathematically certain. This is a different number from the "X more wins" on the CS line chart, which is a simulated guide to reaching the line.

Central League

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Team CS magic Status Climax Series odds
Hanshin 18 Controls top 3 100%
Yomiuri 21 Controls top 3 99.9%
DeNA 31 Controls top 3 53.9%
Yakult 32 Controls top 3 31.2%
Chunichi — Top 3 out of their hands 10%
Hiroshima 35 Controls top 3 5%

Pacific League

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Team CS magic Status Climax Series odds
SoftBank 17 Controls top 3 100%
Seibu 21 Controls top 3 99.8%
Nippon-Ham 24 Controls top 3 97.7%
ORIX — Top 3 out of their hands 1.5%
Lotte 34 Controls top 3 1%
Rakuten — Top 3 out of their hands 0%

All probabilities are model estimates and do not guarantee outcomes. Probabilities are shown rounded to one decimal place: a displayed 100% does not mean mathematical certainty, nor does 0% mean elimination.

Reading the projected CS clinch dates

Projected dates come from the same model as the odds board: each simulated season records the day a top-three finish became mathematically certain, and the page shows the median of that distribution. These are distributions that move with the season, not fixed pronouncements.

The CS clinch test evaluates rivals one at a time - a safe-side relaxation that can run later (more cautious) than reality. Mapping remaining games onto calendar days also involves approximation, and rainouts or rescheduling are not reflected. Official announcements take precedence for any clinch.

What the CS berth magic number is - and how it differs from the pennant magic number

The CS berth magic number is a safe-side guide (upper bound) to the number of wins that makes a top-three finish (a Climax Series berth) mathematically certain regardless of what rivals do. Where the pennant magic number measures certainty of first place with an exact computation, this one measures certainty of the top three with a conservative test - and with three seats in play, it usually lights up earlier and burns down faster.

The test resolves ties and equal percentages against the club in question (a pessimistic convention) and even checks whether several rivals could climb past at once. The evaluation is a safe-side upper bound: a club may in fact clinch with fewer wins than shown, but the shown number of wins always suffices. Clubs already certain show 'Clinched'; clubs for which no self-contained clinch condition can be shown under the safe-side test show '—'.

The same model as the odds board

Projected dates use the same model as the pennant race odds board. Every simulated season is ranked with the official standings rules, tiebreakers included. The numbers are estimates from this site's own statistical simulation, not official announcements. The CS berth magic numbers, by contrast, are not simulation: they are deterministic computations from the current records and remaining schedule.

Frequently asked questions

When are CS berths clinched?

The projected dates on this page are statistical guides from simulations - the distribution of the day a top-three finish became mathematically certain - and do not guarantee outcomes. Clubs whose top-three finish is already mathematically certain are shown as clinched. Official announcements take precedence for any clinch.

What is a CS berth magic number?

It is a safe-side guide (upper bound) to the number of wins that makes a top-three finish mathematically certain regardless of rivals - the Climax Series counterpart of the pennant magic number. Because the test is conservative, a club may clinch with fewer wins than shown, but winning the shown number of games always clinches the berth.

How does it differ from the pennant magic number?

The pennant magic number counts down to clinching first place; the CS berth magic number counts down to clinching the top three. Since two clubs may finish above you, the CS number usually lights up earlier. Note that the CS test is safe-side, so in some situations the shown figure can be conservative (larger than strictly necessary).

What does '—' in the magic column mean?

It means that even winning out would not, under this safe-side test, guarantee a top-three finish. Clubs judged able to control the top three always show a number (at most their games remaining), so '—' only appears when no self-contained clinch condition can be shown. The club's Climax Series hopes are not gone: both a berth and renewed control remain possible depending on rivals.

Sources and references

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