NPB Climax Series Odds (2026): All 12 Clubs

Central League

Hanshin 100%
Yomiuri 99.9%
DeNA 53.9%

Pacific League

SoftBank 100%
Seibu 99.8%
Nippon-Ham 97.7%

end of Aug 23, 2026 · npbc.media

As of the end of Aug 23, 2026, the best Climax Series (top-three) odds belong to Hanshin (100%) in the Central League and SoftBank (100%) in the Pacific League.

A club's Climax Series odds are the share of simulated seasons in which it finished in its league's top three - the Climax Series zone. The model is the same one behind the pennant odds board, condensing the state of the race for third place into a single number the standings alone cannot show.

Climax Series odds board

'Controls top 3' asks whether the club would finish top three by winning all remaining games, regardless of rivals (shown as Yes only when mathematically certain). 'GB (3rd)' is the gap in games behind the third-place club; clubs currently in the top three show '—' (this differs from the leader-based GB on the overview board).

Central League

Scroll right for W-L, PCT and more

Rank Team Climax Series odds Controls top 3 W - L - T PCT GB (3rd) Left
1 Hanshin 100% Yes 63 - 47 - 1 .573 32
2 Yomiuri 99.9% Yes 60 - 51 - 2 .541 30
3 DeNA 53.9% Yes 50 - 59 - 3 .459 31
4 Yakult 31.2% Yes 50 - 60 - 1 .455 0.5 32
5 Chunichi 10% No 49 - 65 - 1 .430 3.5 28
6 Hiroshima 5% Yes 44 - 60 - 4 .423 3.5 35

Pacific League

Scroll right for W-L, PCT and more

Rank Team Climax Series odds Controls top 3 W - L - T PCT GB (3rd) Left
1 SoftBank 100% Yes 69 - 41 - 2 .627 31
2 Seibu 99.8% Yes 65 - 48 - 3 .575 27
3 Nippon-Ham 97.7% Yes 63 - 52 - 1 .548 27
4 ORIX 1.5% No 55 - 57 - 2 .491 6.5 29
5 Lotte 1% Yes 51 - 55 - 3 .481 7.5 34
6 Rakuten 0% No 43 - 67 - 1 .391 17.5 32

In the GB (3rd) and Left columns, darker cells mean larger values (relative within the league).

All probabilities are model estimates and do not guarantee outcomes.

Climax Series odds over time

The same model re-run on each day's data, backfilled to opening day.

Central League Climax Series odds over time end of Aug 23, 2026 npbc.media Interleague 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Apr May Jun Jul Aug T 100% G 99.9% DB 53.9% S 31.2% D 10% C 5%
Central League Climax Series odds over time end of Aug 23, 2026 npbc.media Interleague 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Apr May Jun Jul Aug T 100% G 99.9% DB 53.9% S 31.2% D 10% C 5%
Pacific League Climax Series odds over time end of Aug 23, 2026 npbc.media Interleague 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Apr May Jun Jul Aug H 100% L 99.8% F 97.7% B 1.5% M 1% E 0%
Pacific League Climax Series odds over time end of Aug 23, 2026 npbc.media Interleague 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Apr May Jun Jul Aug H 100% L 99.8% F 97.7% B 1.5% M 1% E 0%

Reading the Climax Series odds board

The board lists clubs in standings order with their Climax Series odds, top-three control, record, winning percentage, games behind third place, and games remaining. 'Controls top 3' is a mathematical test - whether winning all remaining games would guarantee a top-three finish regardless of rivals - shown as Yes only when mathematically certain (a safe-side call).

'GB (3rd)' measures the gap to the third-place club, the distance to the Climax Series zone - a different baseline from the leader-based GB on the overview board. Clubs currently in the top three show '—'.

Reading the odds-over-time chart

The chart re-runs the same model on each day's data, backfilled to opening day, and plots the estimated Climax Series odds. Sharp swings often line up with head-to-head series among the third-place contenders or with winning and losing streaks, and the shape of the race can shift before the standings themselves change.

A displayed 100% or 0% is the result of rounding to one decimal place and does not necessarily mean mathematical certainty or elimination. The mathematical state - clinched status and CS berth magic numbers - lives on the CS clinch-date page.

The same model as the odds board

The computation uses the same model as the pennant race odds board. Every simulated season is ranked with the official standings rules, tiebreakers included. The numbers are estimates from this site's own statistical simulation, not official announcements.

Frequently asked questions

What exactly are Climax Series odds?

It is the share of simulated completions of the remaining schedule in which the club finished in its league's top three. It is an estimate that moves with the season, not a definitive call.

Does 100% or 0% mean it is decided?

Not necessarily. Displayed values are rounded to one decimal place, so 100% or 0% can appear before anything is mathematically settled. For the mathematical state, see the clinched flags and CS berth magic numbers on the CS clinch-date page.

How do CS odds differ from pennant odds?

Pennant odds count the simulations a club finished first; Climax Series odds count top-three finishes. Both come from the same simulation, so a club's pennant odds can never exceed its CS odds.

What is the Climax Series?

It is NPB's postseason format in which the top three clubs of each league play for the right to reach the Japan Series, held in both leagues since 2007. A third-place finish keeps the road to the championship open even without a pennant.

Sources and references

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