NPB Pythagorean Expectation 2026

Data as of
  • ✓Hanshin 0 - 4 Yakult

The one game today is included as provisional results (official figures update the next morning)

Central League

Largest gap above expectation Yakult +5.4 wins
Largest gap below expectation Chunichi −8.4 wins

Pacific League

Largest gap above expectation ORIX +8.8 wins
Largest gap below expectation SoftBank −6.1 wins

end of Oct 8, 2026 / npbc.media

As of Oct 8, 2026, the largest gap above the Pythagorean expectation belongs to Yakult (+5.4 wins) in the Central League and ORIX (+8.8 wins) in the Pacific League, while the largest gap below it belongs to Chunichi (−8.4 wins) in the Central League and SoftBank (−6.1 wins) in the Pacific League.

The standings show results, but runs scored and allowed are known to reflect a team's underlying strength more faithfully.

Pythagorean expectation

The record that runs scored and allowed point to (the expected record), compared with the actual record.

Central League Gap vs expectation end of Oct 8, 2026 npbc.media ← Actual below expected Actual above expected → Hanshin −2.1 Yomiuri +0.2 DeNA −4.4 Hiroshima +3.3 Yakult +5.4 Chunichi −8.4

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Central League Gap vs expectation end of Oct 8, 2026 npbc.media ← Actual below expected Actual above expected → T −2.1 G +0.2 DB −4.4 C +3.3 S +5.4 D −8.4
Pacific League Gap vs expectation end of Oct 8, 2026 npbc.media ← Actual below expected Actual above expected → SoftBank −6.1 Seibu +4.4 Nippon-Ham +0.9 ORIX +8.8 Lotte +4.1 Rakuten −2.7

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Pacific League Gap vs expectation end of Oct 8, 2026 npbc.media ← Actual below expected Actual above expected → H −6.1 L +4.4 F +0.9 B +8.8 M +4.1 E −2.7
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Central League

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Team Actual RS/RA Pythagorean
pct		 Expected W-L Actual vs
expected
Hanshin 79 - 62 (2) 518 / 439 .575 81.1 - 59.9 −2.1
Yomiuri 76 - 64 (3) 486 / 444 .541 75.8 - 64.2 +0.2
DeNA 71 - 69 (3) 557 / 512 .538 75.4 - 64.6 −4.4
Hiroshima 61 - 78 (4) 431 / 520 .415 57.7 - 81.3 +3.3
Yakult 61 - 80 (2) 449 / 568 .394 55.6 - 85.4 +5.4
Chunichi 60 - 81 (2) 478 / 494 .485 68.4 - 72.6 −8.4

Pacific League

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Team Actual RS/RA Pythagorean
pct		 Expected W-L Actual vs
expected
SoftBank 91 - 49 (3) 707 / 452 .694 97.2 - 42.9 −6.1
Seibu 79 - 60 (4) 503 / 464 .537 74.6 - 64.4 +4.4
Nippon-Ham 78 - 62 (3) 591 / 529 .550 77.1 - 62.9 +0.9
ORIX 65 - 76 (2) 483 / 605 .398 56.2 - 84.8 +8.8
Lotte 63 - 77 (3) 492 / 586 .421 58.9 - 81.1 +4.1
Rakuten 58 - 84 (1) 473 / 555 .427 60.7 - 81.3 −2.7

See nextClub strength breakdownFirst-place club in its leagueHanshin PitchingS− BattingASoftBank PitchingC− BattingA−Club strength breakdownHighest-rated battersFirst-place club in its leagueHanshin 佐藤 輝明S 森下 翔太S−SoftBank 栗原 陵矢A+ 近藤 健介AHighest-rated battersPostseasonChampionship odds SoftBank57.9% Hanshin30.5%CS First Stage from Sat, Oct 10 Yomiuri vs DeNA Seibu vs Nippon-HamChampionship odds and the postseasonBaseball quizExample Avg this week.850 Off the bench2 days Cleanup hitterTake today's 10 questions

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Biggest overperformers, 2006-2025: top 10

Club names are shown as they were at the time.

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Year Team Record RS/RA Expected
wins		 Actual vs
expected
2015 Hanshin Tigers 70 - 71 (2) 465 / 550 59.8 +10.3
2020 Chunichi Dragons 60 - 55 (5) 429 / 489 50.6 +9.4
2007 Hanshin Tigers 74 - 66 (4) 518 / 561 64.9 +9.1
2012 Chunichi Dragons 75 - 53 (16) 423 / 405 66.5 +8.5
2011 Tokyo Yakult Swallows 70 - 59 (15) 484 / 504 62.1 +7.9
2024 Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles 67 - 72 (4) 492 / 579 59.2 +7.8
2024 Chunichi Dragons 60 - 75 (8) 373 / 478 52.4 +7.6
2022 Yokohama DeNA BayStars 73 - 68 (2) 497 / 534 65.9 +7.1
2025 Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles 67 - 74 (2) 446 / 526 59.9 +7.1
2022 Chunichi Dragons 66 - 75 (2) 414 / 495 59.1 +6.9
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Biggest underperformers, 2006-2025: bottom 10

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Year Team Record RS/RA Expected
wins		 Actual vs
expected
2022 Hanshin Tigers 68 - 71 (4) 489 / 428 77.9 −9.9
2023 Tokyo Yakult Swallows 57 - 83 (3) 534 / 567 66.2 −9.2
2007 Tokyo Yakult Swallows 60 - 84 596 / 623 69.1 −9.1
2021 Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks 60 - 62 (21) 564 / 493 68.5 −8.5
2013 Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks 73 - 69 (2) 660 / 562 81.4 −8.4
2008 Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles 65 - 76 (3) 627 / 607 72.6 −7.6
2008 Yokohama BayStars 48 - 94 (2) 552 / 706 55.3 −7.3
2018 Yomiuri Giants 67 - 71 (5) 625 / 575 74.3 −7.2
2023 Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters 60 - 82 (1) 464 / 496 66.7 −6.7
2011 Hanshin Tigers 68 - 70 (6) 482 / 443 74.3 −6.3
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The estimated figures are worked out by this site and are not official announcements.

What the Pythagorean expectation is

The Pythagorean expectation is an idea devised by Bill James, the father of sabermetrics, for reading a team's underlying strength from its runs scored and runs allowed.

The expected records on this page are the records that runs scored and allowed point to.

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Reading the gap: it is not all luck

Overperforming the expectation reflects an ability to win close games - bullpen quality, late-game management - as well as the bounce of one-run games. Underperformance often comes from a mix of blowout wins and narrow losses. Not all of the gap is luck, but extreme gaps are known to move back toward the expectation in following seasons.

The list at the bottom of the page (covering the last 20 seasons) gives a sense of scale: gaps around plus or minus ten wins are among the largest on record there.

Frequently asked questions

What is the Pythagorean winning percentage?

An empirical formula devised by Bill James that gives the expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed.

Why do actual records differ from expected records?

Because the same run totals can be distributed differently - winning the close ones versus piling up blowouts. Bullpen quality, late-game management and one-run-game fortune all show up in the gap, and extreme gaps tend to regress the following season.

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