Championship odds (all 12 clubs)
All 12 clubs, ordered by championship odds, so the two leagues can be compared side by side.
Scroll right for W-L, PCT and more
| Team | Standing | Championship odds |
|---|---|---|
| SoftBank | 1 | |
| Hanshin | 1 | |
| Yomiuri | 2 | |
| Seibu | 2 | |
| DeNA | 3 | |
| Nippon-Ham | 3 | |
| Yakult | 4 | |
| ORIX | 4 | |
| Chunichi | 5 | |
| Lotte | 5 | |
| Hiroshima | 6 | |
| Rakuten | 6 |
Championship odds are defined so that all twelve clubs total 100%, but because each value is rounded to one decimal place the displayed total may not come to exactly 100%.
All probabilities are model estimates and do not guarantee outcomes.
What are the odds of reaching the Japan Series? Climax Series survival odds
Championship odds over time
The same model re-run on each day's data, backfilled to opening day.
Central League
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Pacific League
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How to read the championship odds
The table lists all 12 clubs in descending order of championship odds. Those odds are the chance of reaching the Japan Series multiplied by the chance of winning it once there, so a club's championship odds can never exceed its Japan Series odds. 'Standing' is the club's place in its own league's official table - a lower-placed club can carry better odds when its remaining schedule and underlying strength favour it.
The Japan Series is contested by the champions of the Central and Pacific Leagues, which makes the championship a single race across both leagues. Every simulated season ends with exactly one champion, so the 12 clubs' odds add up to roughly 100% (displayed values are rounded to one decimal place, so the sum can drift slightly from 100%). One table rather than two lets that single, 100%-in-total race be compared directly.
Reading the odds-over-time chart
The chart re-runs the same model on each day's data, backfilled to opening day, and plots the estimated championship odds - one chart per league. Compared with the Japan Series odds chart the values are the same or lower, reduced by the chance of also winning the short series at the end.
A displayed 100% or 0% is the result of rounding to one decimal place and does not necessarily mean mathematical certainty or elimination. The chance of reaching the Japan Series itself is on the Japan Series odds page.
The same calculation as the odds board
The computation uses the same calculation as the Japan Series odds board; these numbers simply count the same projected seasons at a later gate. Each projected season is first ranked with the official standings rules, tiebreakers included, and the resulting order then plays out the Climax Series (CS) and the Japan Series. Each club's underlying strength is read from its runs scored and runs allowed this season together with its win-loss record (the true-strength page shows what the run difference implies). The numbers are this site's own estimates, not official announcements, and they are based on regular-season results only; actual postseason game results are not reflected in them.
Frequently asked questions
How do championship odds differ from pennant odds?
Pennant odds are the chance of finishing first in the league; championship odds are the chance of winning the Japan Series. A club that misses the pennant can still win it all by coming through the Climax Series, so clubs with slim pennant odds keep meaningful championship odds - as DeNA showed in 2024 by winning the Japan Series from third place. Pennant odds are on the pennant race odds board.
Why are championship odds lower than Japan Series odds?
Winning it all means first reaching the Japan Series and then winning a first-to-four series. Championship odds are the reaching odds multiplied by the chance of closing it out, so for any club they are always the same as or smaller than its Japan Series odds - and because the counts are tallied per simulated season, that still holds after rounding to one decimal place. The odds of reaching the Japan Series are on the Japan Series odds page.
Do the 12 clubs' championship odds add up to 100%?
Roughly, yes. Each simulated season produces exactly one Japan Series winner, so the 12 clubs' shares are a breakdown of the whole. Displayed values are rounded to one decimal place, though, so adding up the numbers on screen can drift slightly from 100%.