Final Stages the pennant winner lost
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| Year | Pennant winner |
Opponent | Games back |
Win gap |
Head to head |
Result | New format |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Central | Hanshin 79 - 62 (2) |
DeNA (3) 71 - 69 (3) |
7.5 | 8 | 13 - 12 | 1 win - 4 wins | — |
| 2024 Central | Yomiuri 77 - 59 (7) |
DeNA (3) 71 - 69 (3) |
8.0 | 6 | 16 - 8 (1) | 3 wins - 4 wins | — |
| 2019 Pacific | Seibu 80 - 62 (1) |
SoftBank (2) 76 - 62 (5) |
2.0 | 4 | 12 - 13 | 1 win - 4 wins | — |
| 2018 Pacific | Seibu 88 - 53 (2) |
SoftBank (2) 82 - 60 (1) |
6.5 | 6 | 13 - 12 | 2 wins - 4 wins | — |
| 2017 Central | Hiroshima 88 - 51 (4) |
DeNA (3) 73 - 65 (5) |
14.5 | 15 | 12 - 13 | 2 wins - 4 wins | 7 games |
| 2014 Central | Yomiuri 82 - 61 (1) |
Hanshin (2) 75 - 68 (1) |
7.0 | 7 | 13 - 11 | 1 win - 4 wins | — |
| 2010 Pacific | SoftBank 76 - 63 (5) |
Lotte (3) 75 - 67 (2) |
2.5 | 1 | 15 - 9 | 3 wins - 4 wins | — |
| 2007 Central * | Yomiuri 80 - 63 (1) |
Chunichi (2) 78 - 64 (2) |
1.5 | 2 | 12 - 12 | 0 wins - 3 wins | — |
Of the 8 losses, 1 would meet the new format's conditions.
Games back and win gap come from the final regular-season standings; head to head is the regular-season record from the pennant winner's side; the result counts advantage wins.
* In 2007 the Final Stage was played without an advantage for the champion.
Regular-season gap and the pennant winner's odds in theory
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| Season gap | Win rate per game |
6 games | 7 games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 games (even) | .500 | 65.6 % | 77.3 % |
| 5 games | .535 | 71.9 % | 82.7 % |
| 10 games | .570 | 77.7 % | 87.2 % |
| 15 games | .605 | 82.7 % | 90.8 % |
Even 15 games ahead, the pennant winner loses a 6-game series 17.3 % of the time.
Odds for 6 games include a 1-win advantage; odds for 7 games include a 2-win advantage.
Regular-season records include luck, so the real gap in strength is often smaller.
Past Final Stages that meet the format used from 2026
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| Year | Pennant winner |
Opponent | Games back |
Trigger | Advanced | Odds (old → new) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Central | Hanshin 85 - 54 (4) |
DeNA (2) 71 - 66 (6) |
13.0 | Games back | Pennant winner | 81.3 → 89.9 % |
| 2024 Pacific | SoftBank 91 - 49 (3) |
Nippon-Ham (2) 75 - 60 (8) |
13.5 | Games back | Pennant winner | 81.7 → 90.1 % |
| 2023 Central | Hanshin 85 - 53 (5) |
Hiroshima (2) 74 - 65 (4) |
11.5 | Games back | Pennant winner | 80.0 → 88.9 % |
| 2023 Pacific | ORIX 86 - 53 (4) |
Lotte (2) 70 - 68 (5) |
15.5 | Games back | Pennant winner | 83.7 → 91.5 % |
| 2022 Central | Yakult 80 - 59 (4) |
Hanshin (3) 68 - 71 (4) |
12.0 | Both | Pennant winner | 80.2 → 89.0 % |
| 2021 Central | Yakult 73 - 52 (18) |
Yomiuri (3) 61 - 62 (20) |
11.0 | Both | Pennant winner | 80.4 → 89.2 % |
| 2020 Pacific * | SoftBank 73 - 42 (5) |
Lotte (2) 60 - 57 (3) |
14.0 | Games back | Pennant winner | 84.6 → 92.4 % |
| 2018 Central | Hiroshima 82 - 59 (2) |
Yomiuri (3) 67 - 71 (5) |
13.5 | Both | Pennant winner | 81.5 → 89.9 % |
| 2017 Central | Hiroshima 88 - 51 (4) |
DeNA (3) 73 - 65 (5) |
14.5 | Games back | Opponent (upset) | 82.8 → 90.9 % |
| 2017 Pacific | SoftBank 94 - 49 |
Rakuten (3) 77 - 63 (3) |
15.5 | Games back | Pennant winner | 83.5 → 91.4 % |
| 2016 Central | Hiroshima 89 - 52 (2) |
DeNA (3) 69 - 71 (3) |
19.5 | Both | Pennant winner | 86.9 → 93.6 % |
| 2015 Pacific | SoftBank 90 - 49 (4) |
Lotte (3) 73 - 69 (1) |
18.5 | Games back | Pennant winner | 86.5 → 93.3 % |
| 2013 Central | Yomiuri 84 - 53 (7) |
Hiroshima (3) 69 - 72 (3) |
17.0 | Both | Pennant winner | 85.2 → 92.5 % |
| 2012 Central | Yomiuri 86 - 43 (15) |
Chunichi (2) 75 - 53 (16) |
10.5 | Games back | Pennant winner | 80.1 → 88.9 % |
| 2011 Pacific | SoftBank 88 - 46 (10) |
Seibu (3) 68 - 67 (9) |
20.5 | Games back | Pennant winner | 88.7 → 94.7 % |
| 2009 Central | Yomiuri 89 - 46 (9) |
Chunichi (2) 81 - 62 (1) |
12.0 | Games back | Pennant winner | 81.7 → 90.1 % |
| 2008 Central | Yomiuri 84 - 57 (3) |
Chunichi (3) 71 - 68 (5) |
12.0 | Games back | Pennant winner | 80.0 → 88.9 % |
Of those 17, the pennant winner lost only one: Hiroshima in 2017.
Odds are the pennant winner's chance to advance from both clubs' regular-season win rates (old format → new format).
* In 2020 the Central League held no Climax Series, and the Pacific League skipped the First Stage and played a 4-game Final Stage (a 1-win advantage for the champion).
Is the Climax Series necessary or unfair? The numbers Climax Series fairness
How much do standings gaps and the advantage decide? What decides the Climax Series
Every matchup and result, and the third-place upsets? Climax Series results by year
What triggers the new format? Climax Series rules