NPB Run Expectancy and Steals (2026)

Data as of
  • ✓Hanshin 0 - 4 Yakult

The one game today is included as provisional results (official figures update the next morning)

Over the last 3 seasons across all 12 clubs, run expectancy with a runner on 1st and no outs is 0.709 runs, and 0.577 runs after a sacrifice bunt to 1 out with a runner on 2nd.

This page lines up run expectancy for the 24 runner and out states, with what sacrifice bunts and steals gain or cost.

Run expectancy by runners and outs (last 3 seasons, runs)

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Runners 0 outs 1 out 2 outs
Bases empty 0.375 0.193 0.072
1st 0.709 0.412 0.180
2nd 1.008 0.577 0.261
3rd 1.371 0.870 0.297
1st & 2nd 1.316 0.768 0.375
1st & 3rd 1.600 1.056 0.435
2nd & 3rd 1.789 1.279 0.511
Bases loaded 2.102 1.393 0.623

See nextClub strength breakdownHighest-rated club in its leagueHanshin PitchingS− BattingANippon-Ham PitchingB− BattingB−Club strength breakdownHighest-rated battersHighest-rated club in its leagueHanshin 佐藤 輝明S 森下 翔太S−Nippon-Ham 水野 達稀A− レイエスBHighest-rated battersHighest-rated pitchersHighest-rated club in its leagueHanshin 髙橋 遥人A+ 村上 頌樹A+Nippon-Ham 柳川 大晟A 北山 亘基B+Highest-rated pitchersBaseball quizTen questions a day from stats and records

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Scoring chance by runners and outs (last 3 seasons, %)

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Runners 0 outs 1 out 2 outs
Bases empty 21.5 12.0 4.9
1st 35.5 22.0 10.1
2nd 58.5 35.1 18.3
3rd 81.7 63.5 22.3
1st & 2nd 58.2 36.8 20.1
1st & 3rd 84.5 61.2 25.5
2nd & 3rd 82.2 65.5 24.2
Bases loaded 81.2 61.5 28.0
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Before and after a sacrifice bunt (last 3 seasons)

Run expectancy (runs)

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Situation Before After Change
0 outs, 1st → 1 out, 2nd 0.709 0.577 −0.132
0 outs, 2nd → 1 out, 3rd 1.008 0.870 −0.138
0 outs, 1st & 2nd → 1 out, 2nd & 3rd 1.316 1.279 −0.037

Scoring chance (%)

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Situation Before After Change
0 outs, 1st → 1 out, 2nd 35.5 35.1 −0.4
0 outs, 2nd → 1 out, 3rd 58.5 63.5 +5.0
0 outs, 1st & 2nd → 1 out, 2nd & 3rd 58.2 65.5 +7.3
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Break-even rate for stolen bases (last 3 seasons)

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Steal Break-even
rate		 Actual
rate		 Attempts
Steal of 2nd (0 outs) .633 .626 633
Steal of 2nd (1 out) .673 .661 1103
Steal of 2nd (2 outs) .691 .685 1200
Steal of 3rd (0 outs) .692 .600 5
Steal of 3rd (1 out) .632 .868 38
Steal of 3rd (2 outs) .878 .650 20
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Steal attempts and caught stealing (last 3 seasons)

Clubs

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Team Attempts Caught Caught
rate		 Attempt
rate
Yakult 298 113 .379 .048
Yomiuri 229 80 .349 .040
Hanshin 271 88 .325 .048
ORIX 299 96 .321 .049
SoftBank 281 88 .313 .051
Nippon-Ham 302 92 .305 .054
Chunichi 282 85 .301 .048
Seibu 346 100 .289 .059
DeNA 360 102 .283 .060
Rakuten 314 85 .271 .051
Hiroshima 278 73 .263 .048
Lotte 386 92 .238 .065

Pitchers (3 with the most batters faced)

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Pitcher Attempts Caught Caught
rate		 Attempt
rate
Hanshin
村上 頌樹 24 8 .333 .036
才木 浩人 42 5 .119 .065
髙橋 遥人 8 3 .375 .028
Yomiuri
井上 温大 11 9 .818 .022
竹丸 和幸 9 2 .222 .048
戸郷 翔征 15 5 .333 .027
DeNA
東 克樹 21 9 .429 .031
石田 裕太郎 25 9 .360 .065
平良 拳太郎 14 3 .214 .054
Hiroshima
床田 寛樹 16 11 .688 .022
森下 暢仁 34 6 .176 .053
栗林 良吏 14 2 .143 .050
Yakult
山野 太一 20 4 .200 .048
奥川 恭伸 41 10 .244 .096
吉村 貢司郎 6 3 .500 .010
Chunichi
金丸 夢斗 9 1 .111 .024
柳 裕也 26 12 .462 .056
大野 雄大 8 3 .375 .019
SoftBank
大津 亮介 11 6 .545 .026
上沢 直之 22 4 .182 .059
松本 晴 10 5 .500 .026
Seibu
隅田 知一郎 59 26 .441 .089
平良 海馬 15 4 .267 .039
武内 夏暉 32 9 .281 .066
Nippon-Ham
伊藤 大海 36 7 .194 .046
北山 亘基 28 12 .429 .056
達 孝太 22 7 .318 .070
ORIX
九里 亜蓮 26 7 .269 .049
エスピノーザ 43 16 .372 .067
ジェリー 10 3 .300 .056
Lotte
ジャクソン 21 6 .286 .092
小島 和哉 49 17 .347 .076
田中 晴也 26 4 .154 .097
Rakuten
荘司 康誠 15 6 .400 .040
早川 隆久 24 3 .125 .045
古謝 樹 22 5 .227 .045

Catchers (3 with the most attempts)

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Catcher Attempts Caught Caught
rate		 Attempt
rate
Hanshin
坂本 誠志郎 127 45 .354 .047
梅野 隆太郎 84 25 .298 .053
伏見 寅威 2 1 .500 .006
Yomiuri
岸田 行倫 82 35 .427 .039
大城 卓三 42 13 .310 .035
甲斐 拓也 32 7 .219 .042
DeNA
山本 祐大 129 45 .349 .051
松尾 汐恩 91 27 .297 .069
戸柱 恭孝 41 11 .268 .064
Hiroshima
坂倉 将吾 100 20 .200 .049
石原 貴規 44 18 .409 .044
持丸 泰輝 40 12 .300 .053
Yakult
古賀 優大 88 41 .466 .046
中村 悠平 60 20 .333 .035
鈴木 叶 41 11 .268 .099
Chunichi
石伊 雄太 87 29 .333 .044
木下 拓哉 43 11 .256 .053
加藤 匠馬 19 9 .474 .035
SoftBank
海野 隆司 75 33 .440 .047
甲斐 拓也 71 18 .254 .064
山本 祐大 16 5 .313 .029
Seibu
古賀 悠斗 133 49 .368 .059
小島 大河 34 10 .294 .061
炭谷 銀仁朗 22 5 .227 .068
Nippon-Ham
田宮 裕涼 113 44 .389 .047
伏見 寅威 54 13 .241 .060
進藤 勇也 24 9 .375 .057
ORIX
若月 健矢 170 59 .347 .053
森 友哉 46 12 .261 .049
福永 奨 18 8 .444 .060
Lotte
佐藤 都志也 197 48 .244 .067
寺地 隆成 65 11 .169 .071
田村 龍弘 38 12 .316 .060
Rakuten
太田 光 73 27 .370 .038
石原 彪 32 4 .125 .067
堀内 謙伍 31 10 .323 .046

The estimated figures are worked out by this site and are not official announcements.

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