Hiroshima Pennant Odds & Analysis (2026)

Central League

Rank #4
W - L (T) 61 - 78 (4)
PCT .439

end of Oct 8, 2026 / npbc.media

As of the end of Oct 8, 2026, Hiroshima (Carp) stand in the Central League at No. 4 with a record of 61 - 78 (4) (winning percentage .439). We estimate their pennant odds at 0% and their Climax Series odds at 0%.

The odds ladder: pennant to championship

Pennant odds 0% Eliminated from the pennant race
Climax Series odds 0% Eliminated from Climax Series contention
Japan Series odds 0%
Championship odds 0%

Pennant and CS odds cover the regular-season finish, while Japan Series and championship odds extend into the postseason. A club that misses the pennant can still win it all through the CS, so its championship odds can exceed its pennant odds. A displayed 100% does not mean mathematical certainty, nor does 0% mean elimination.

Hiroshima: standings forecast

Projected finish #4
Range #4-#4
Top-3 odds 0%
Last-place odds 0%
Proj. W-L 61 - 78 (4)
Chance of each finish #1 0% / #2 0% / #3 0% / #4 100% / #5 0% / #6 0%

Team strength (Elo)

Rating 1469.7 (No. 10 of the 12 clubs)
Last 30 days ↑+5.8
vs last week ↑+0.9
Best year ('06-'25) '18 (Elo 1554.3)
Worst year ('06-'25) '07 (Elo 1457.1)

The 'Last 30 days' and 'vs last week' columns show the change from the value 30 and 7 days earlier (as of the end of that day). When the season does not yet cover a window, or there were no games in the period, the cell shows '—'.

Pitching, batting, defense and baserunning

Hiroshima are losing ground with Pitching and Batting. The club is a little above average in Baserunning, level with the average in Defense.

Pitching −3.2 wins against the league average

Key players床田 寛樹栗林 良吏玉村 昇悟髙 太一遠藤 淳志

Yomiuri +6.2 wins Hanshin +3.1 wins DeNA −0.8 wins Chunichi −0.2 wins Yakult −5.2 wins Hiroshima −3.2 wins −10 +10
Yomiuri +6.2 wins Hanshin +3.1 wins DeNA −0.8 wins Chunichi −0.2 wins Yakult −5.2 wins Hiroshima −3.2 wins −10 +10

Batting −3.9 wins against the league average

Key players坂倉 将吾モンテロファビアン菊池 涼介佐々木 泰

Yomiuri −0.3 wins Hanshin +8.0 wins DeNA +1.9 wins Chunichi −0.1 wins Yakult −5.6 wins Hiroshima −3.9 wins −10 +10
Yomiuri −0.3 wins Hanshin +8.0 wins DeNA +1.9 wins Chunichi −0.1 wins Yakult −5.6 wins Hiroshima −3.9 wins −10 +10

Defense Level with the league average

Key players持丸 泰輝小園 海斗勝田 成菊池 涼介石原 貴規

Yomiuri +1.9 wins Hanshin +0.3 wins DeNA −1.3 wins Chunichi −0.9 wins Yakult +0.4 wins Hiroshima −0.3 wins −5 +5
Yomiuri +1.9 wins Hanshin +0.3 wins DeNA −1.3 wins Chunichi −0.9 wins Yakult +0.4 wins Hiroshima −0.3 wins −5 +5

Baserunning +9.0 runs against the league average

Key players勝田 成秋山 翔吾野間 峻祥辰見 鴻之介小園 海斗

Yomiuri +1.6 runs Hanshin −4.2 runs DeNA −6.5 runs Chunichi +0.6 runs Yakult −0.5 runs Hiroshima +9.0 runs −10 +10
Yomiuri +1.6 runs Hanshin −4.2 runs DeNA −6.5 runs Chunichi +0.6 runs Yakult −0.5 runs Hiroshima +9.0 runs −10 +10

Dots are this league's six clubs in club colors; the large dot is this club and the center line is the league average.

Each of the four figures says how many wins pitching, batting, defense and baserunning are worth against the average of the same league.

Breakdown of the key players' numbers

Batting overall E (No. 12 of the 12 clubs)

  • Contact F(No. 12 of the 12 clubs)
  • Power E−(No. 11 of the 12 clubs)
  • Discipline D(No. 9 of the 12 clubs)
  • Baserunning E(No. 11 of the 12 clubs)

Pitching overall D (No. 9 of the 12 clubs)

  • Prevention D(No. 8 of the 12 clubs)
  • Strikeouts E−(No. 10 of the 12 clubs)
  • Control C(No. 5 of the 12 clubs)
  • Durability C(No. 5 of the 12 clubs)

The season so far

Hiroshima Games over .500 end of Oct 8, 2026 npbc.media −20 −10 ±0 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct C −17

Scroll right to see the full chart

Hiroshima Games over .500 end of Oct 8, 2026 npbc.media −20 −10 ±0 Apr Jun Aug Oct C −17
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Last 10: 7 - 3

Recent form (last 10 games)

  • Run differential+11Last 10
  • 2-game losing streak
Hiroshima Runs scored and allowed in the last 10 games end of Oct 8, 2026 npbc.media 2 2 4 4 6 6 8 8 Avg 3.01 Avg 3.64 3 1 3 2 5 3 4 3 1 3 5 1 6 4 7 4 1 2 1 2 ○ ○ ○ ○ ● ○ ○ ○ ● ● Sep 24 Sep 25 Sep 27 Sep 28 Sep 29 Oct 1 Oct 3 Oct 4 Oct 6 Oct 7

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Hiroshima Runs scored and allowed in the last 10 games end of Oct 8, 2026 npbc.media 2 2 4 4 6 6 8 8 3.01 3.64 ○ ○ ○ ○ ● ○ ○ ○ ● ● Sep 29 Oct 7
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  • Runs per game ↑+0.59 Season3.01(No. 12 of the 12 clubs) Last 103.60
  • Runs allowed per game ↓−1.14 Season3.64(No. 7 of the 12 clubs) Last 102.50
  • Batting average .000 Season.223(No. 12 of the 12 clubs) Last 10.223
  • Home runs per game ↓−0.14 Season0.64(No. 11 of the 12 clubs) Last 100.50
  • Stolen bases per game ↓−0.31 Season0.51(No. 6 of the 12 clubs) Last 100.20
  • ERA ↓−0.88 Season3.40(No. 8 of the 12 clubs) Last 102.52

Shows how much better or worse the last 10 games have been than the season average.

Batting average, home runs, stolen bases and ERA are as of Oct 7, 2026.

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Games in Oct and Nov

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Central League Hiroshima - Games in Oct and Nov
Date Opponent Ballpark Result /
Start
Thu, Oct 1 D Mazda ○ 5-1
Sat, Oct 3 T Mazda ○ 6-4
Sun, Oct 4 S Jingu ○ 7-4
Tue, Oct 6 T Ko­shien ● 1-2
Wed, Oct 7 T Ko­shien ● 1-2

○ = win, ● = loss, △ = tie. A venue other than this club's home (Mazda Stadium) normally means an away game, and games played away from the host club's regular park carry a Home / Away tag. Scores list this club's runs first, and games still to be played show the scheduled start time.

This season's games are over.

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Championship odds across the last 10 games

Even by winning every remaining game, Hiroshima cannot reach the winning percentage another club would finish with by losing all of theirs, so the pennant is out of reach.

Hiroshima championship odds

Over the last 10 games: 0% → 0%. The pennant is out of reach.

end of Oct 8, 2026 npbc.media 0 50 100 Championship odds (%) 0% 0% Sep 24 Now

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end of Oct 8, 2026 npbc.media 0 50 100 Championship odds (%) 0% 0% Sep 24 Now

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Hiroshima - recent games and championship odds
Date Opponent Result Championship odds
(after the game)
Change
Thu, Sep 24 GMazda ○ 3-1 0% ±0.0 pt
Fri, Sep 25 GMazda ○ 3-2 0% ±0.0 pt
Sun, Sep 27 DBYoko­hama ○ 5-3 0% ±0.0 pt
Mon, Sep 28 DBYoko­hama ○ 4-3 0% ±0.0 pt
Tue, Sep 29 GTokyo D ● 1-3 0% ±0.0 pt
Thu, Oct 1 DMazda ○ 5-1 0% ±0.0 pt
Sat, Oct 3 TMazda ○ 6-4 0% ±0.0 pt
Sun, Oct 4 SJingu ○ 7-4 0% ±0.0 pt
Tue, Oct 6 TKo­shien ● 1-2 0% ±0.0 pt
Wed, Oct 7 TKo­shien ● 1-2 0% ±0.0 pt

Change = the difference of a value that reflects every game played on that date, including the results of the other clubs.

The line under the opponent is the venue as listed in the official NPB schedule. A park other than the club's home (Mazda Stadium) normally means an away game; games played away from the host club's regular park carry a Home / Away tag.

League pennants (2006-2025)

Pennants in this window: 3

Age profile

Throws right Throws left Catchers Infielders Outfielders (Development players) Holding a top-team place Players from outside Japan

PitchersAgePosition players
38會澤 翼秋山 翔吾
37
36菊池 涼介
大瀬良 大地35堂林 翔太
中﨑 翔太34
33野間 峻祥
T.ハーン32
ケムナ 誠床田 寛樹31
栗林 良吏島内 颯太郎30末包 昇大大盛 穂
森下 暢仁鈴木 健矢塹江 敦哉29
アドゥワ 誠益田 武尚F.ターノック森 翔平森浦 大輔長谷部 銀次高橋 昂也28石原 貴規坂倉 将吾E.モンテロ矢野 雅哉S.ファビアン
遠藤 淳志松本 竜也黒原 拓未27中村 奨成
26羽月 隆太郎小園 海斗林 晃汰辰見 鴻之介中村 貴浩名原 典彦久保 修(N.ロベルト)
杉田 健常廣 羽也斗(河野 佳)玉村 昇悟髙 太一滝田 一希(D.アリア)25持丸 泰輝(安竹 俊喜)佐藤 啓介
岡本 駿佐藤 柳之介24渡邉 悠斗二俣 翔一佐々木 泰(岸本 大希)(M.ラミレス)
工藤 泰己赤木 晴哉齊藤 汰直23髙木 翔斗前川 誠太勝田 成田村 俊介
髙木 快大斉藤 優汰日髙 暖己辻 大雅22清水 叶人(小林 結太)内田 湘大平川 蓮
(杉原 望来)21仲田 侑仁
(小船 翼)(竹下 海斗)20
菊地 ハルン19西川 篤夢

Every age on this page is the age for this season. Whether the birthday has already come round is not taken into account.

What to reinforce in the draft

Hiroshima's draft needs, in order: a right-handed pitcher ready now, an outfielder ready now and a right-handed hitter ready now.

Priority Right arm Left arm Catcher Infield Outfield RH hitter LH hitter
Ready now A+ E+ A+ B A+ A+ A−
Future B D− B+ C C B+ E−
Priority Pitching Hitting Defense Baserunning
Skills B+ A B D−

Club facts

League Central League
Home ballpark Mazda Zoom-Zoom Stadium Hiroshima (Hiroshima) (as of the '26 season)

The estimated figures are worked out by this site and are not official announcements.

Reading the four odds figures

Pennant odds are the club's chance of finishing first in its league, worked out from how its remaining games are likely to go. CS odds are the chance of a top-three finish, Japan Series odds the chance of then surviving the Climax Series, and championship odds the chance of winning the Japan Series itself - the four figures narrow in that order. All of them are estimates that move with the season, not definitive calls.

The defensive detail is on Central League fielding, and the draft picks on Hiroshima draft picks.

Reading the Elo strength and the season trajectory

Team strength (Elo) is a strength measure that weighs the opponent's strength; 1500 is the average.

The season trajectory plots games above .500 (wins minus losses), tracing the ups and downs of the season, and the last-10 strip shows current form. League-wide views live on the team strength ratings page and the net-wins chart page.

About the pennant years and the club facts

The pennant years are based on each season's final standings. The list is limited to the recent seasons stated explicitly in the heading - a shorter span than the full pennant race archive, where earlier years can be traced. Only titles belonging to the lineage of today's twelve clubs (predecessor clubs included) are counted; titles of clubs with no present-day successor are excluded. The club facts list permanent information only, each with the date it was recorded.

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