Current magic numbers
Hanshin's magic number is 11 (lit on Sat, Aug 29 at M23).
Until it goes dark: Hanshin, in games other than vs Yomiuri, must lose 1 more (as long as Yomiuri keeps winning)
So when will the pennant be clinched? See the projected clinch dates
How many wins make the pennant line? See the pennant-line lookup
How does tonight's game move the odds? See tonight's scenario board
Magic numbers
The smallest number of remaining wins that clinches the pennant regardless of what rivals do (an exact computation that accounts for remaining head-to-head games). Ties are resolved against the club in question, and equal percentages count as losing the tiebreaker (pessimistic convention). This is a different number from the "X more wins" on the pennant line chart, which is a simulated guide to reaching the line.
Central League
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| Team | Magic | Status | Left | Controls pennant |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hanshin | Lit | 12 | Yes | |
| Yomiuri | Needs help | 9 | No | |
| DeNA | Needs help | 9 | No | |
| Yakult | Eliminated from the pennant race | 10 | No | |
| Chunichi | Eliminated from the pennant race | 7 | No | |
| Hiroshima | Eliminated from the pennant race | 13 | No |
On Sat, Aug 29, the magic number lit for Hanshin at 23 (retro-computed under the percentage-only rule).
The bar in the magic column shows the magic number as a share of remaining games. The longer the bar, the more of the remaining schedule must be won - the smaller the cushion.
Per-rival breakdown (who sets the magic number)
'Wins needed' is the number of remaining wins required to finish strictly ahead of that rival even if the rival maxes out its remaining games (accounting for remaining head-to-head matchups). The largest of these values is the magic number, and the rival that sets it is the 'target club'.
Breakdown from Hanshin's standpoint
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| Rival | Wins needed | Head-to-head left |
|---|---|---|
| Yomiuri Target club | 11 | 1 |
| DeNA | 5 | 4 |
| Yakult | 0 | 4 |
| Chunichi | 0 | 0 |
| Hiroshima | 0 | 3 |
This season's magic number history (lit, dark, self-control lost and regained)
A day-by-day history recomputed from full game results (percentage-only test; ties and equal percentages resolved pessimistically).
Central League
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| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Sat, Jun 13 | Chunichi lose the ability to clinch on their own |
| Sun, Jun 14 | Chunichi regain the ability to clinch on their own |
| Tue, Jun 30 | Chunichi lose the ability to clinch on their own |
| Mon (hol), Jul 20 | Hiroshima lose the ability to clinch on their own |
| Fri, Jul 31 | DeNA lose the ability to clinch on their own |
| Sun, Aug 2 | Yakult lose the ability to clinch on their own |
| Tue, Aug 4 | DeNA regain the ability to clinch on their own |
| Thu, Aug 6 | DeNA lose the ability to clinch on their own |
| Sat, Aug 8 | DeNA regain the ability to clinch on their own |
| Tue (hol), Aug 11 | DeNA lose the ability to clinch on their own |
| Sat, Aug 29 | Yomiuri lose the ability to clinch on their own |
| Sat, Aug 29 | Hanshin light up a magic number of 23 |
Full season log
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| Sun, Jun 7 | Chunichi lose the ability to clinch on their own |
|---|---|
| Wed, Jun 10 | Chunichi regain the ability to clinch on their own |
| Sat, Jun 13 | Chunichi lose the ability to clinch on their own |
| Sun, Jun 14 | Chunichi regain the ability to clinch on their own |
| Tue, Jun 30 | Chunichi lose the ability to clinch on their own |
| Mon (hol), Jul 20 | Hiroshima lose the ability to clinch on their own |
| Fri, Jul 31 | DeNA lose the ability to clinch on their own |
| Sun, Aug 2 | Yakult lose the ability to clinch on their own |
| Tue, Aug 4 | DeNA regain the ability to clinch on their own |
| Thu, Aug 6 | DeNA lose the ability to clinch on their own |
| Sat, Aug 8 | DeNA regain the ability to clinch on their own |
| Tue (hol), Aug 11 | DeNA lose the ability to clinch on their own |
| Sat, Aug 29 | Yomiuri lose the ability to clinch on their own |
| Sat, Aug 29 | Hanshin light up a magic number of 23 |
Scroll right to see the full chart
Since lighting up on Sat, Aug 29 (M23), 22 days have passed and the number has dropped by 12.
The dashed line is a reference pace toward M0 by the clinch date guide (Sat, Oct 3) - the same outlook as the clinch-date page.
Next game day scenarios - where does the magic number land?
Central League
Mon, Sep 21: Hanshin (vs DB) × Yomiuri (no game)
| No game | |
|---|---|
| Win | M10 (−1) |
| Tie | M11 |
| Loss | Goes dark (a rival regains self-control) |
Rows = Hanshin's result. Columns = Yomiuri's result.
Each cell is the exact recomputed magic number after those two results. When a win coincides with a target-club loss, it can drop by 2 or more at once.
Other same-day games are left unplayed in the evaluation (if another rival loses or ties, the actual value is the same as the cell or smaller).
What makes the magic number disappear
The magic number disappears when a club regains the chance to win the pennant on its own, or when the club holding it loses that chance itself.
Central League
As long as Yomiuri keeps winning, once Hanshin loses 3 more, Hanshin can no longer win the pennant on its own and the magic number disappears, whoever those losses come against.
As long as Yomiuri keeps winning, if Hanshin, in games other than vs Yomiuri, loses 1 more, Yomiuri regains the chance to win the pennant on its own and the magic number disappears.
The magic number can disappear on Mon (hol), Sep 21 (for example: Chunichi beats Hiroshima / Hanshin loses to DeNA).
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| Rival | Losses until the revival | If the rival loses 1 | If the rival loses 2 | Head-to-head left | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yomiuri Closest to going dark | 2 | 3 | 1 | ||
| DeNA | 5 | 6 | 4 | Other clubs must lose too: Yomiuri loses 6 more | |
| Yakult | No revival | No revival | 4 | cannot pass Yomiuri | |
| Chunichi | No revival | No revival | 0 | cannot pass DeNA / cannot pass Yomiuri | |
| Hiroshima | No revival | No revival | 3 | cannot pass Yomiuri |
The full length of each bar is the number of games the club holding the magic number has left. The figure on the bar is how many losses it takes for that rival's own-power chance to come back.
For rivals blocked by more than one club, the losses in the table are a lower bound: fewer than that never brings the chance back, and the other clubs have to lose as well.
A rival winning a head-to-head game does not bring its revival closer, because that win is already assumed in the own-power test (a win for the club holding the magic number pushes the revival further away).
Ties are reflected in the next day's recalculation.
Magic number lighting dates, last 20 seasons (2006-2025)
This section lists past seasons' results. For the current season, see the status board at the top of the page.
For each season we retro-compute the first game day on which every other club had lost the ability to clinch on its own (= the lighting date), using the percentage-only pessimistic test.
Scroll right to see the full chart
Full list by year
Central League
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| Year | Team | Lit on | M at lighting |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Hanshin TigersHanshin | Jul 27 | 42 |
| 2024 | Yomiuri GiantsYomiuri | Sep 18 | 9 |
| 2023 | Hanshin TigersHanshin | Aug 16 | 29 |
| 2022 | Tokyo Yakult SwallowsYakult | Jul 2 | 53 |
| 2021 | Tokyo Yakult SwallowsYakult | Oct 8 | 11 |
| 2020 | Yomiuri GiantsYomiuri | Sep 15 | 38 |
| 2019 | Yomiuri GiantsYomiuri | Aug 24 | 20 |
| 2018 | Hiroshima Toyo CarpHiroshima | Aug 1 | 44 |
| 2017 | Hiroshima Toyo CarpHiroshima | Aug 8 | 33 |
| 2016 | Hiroshima Toyo CarpHiroshima | Aug 24 | 20 |
| 2015 | Tokyo Yakult SwallowsYakult | Sep 27 | 3 |
| 2014 | Yomiuri GiantsYomiuri | Sep 4 | 22 |
| 2013 | Yomiuri GiantsYomiuri | Aug 9 | 39 |
| 2012 | Yomiuri GiantsYomiuri | Aug 23 | 30 |
| 2011 | Chunichi DragonsChunichi | Oct 12 | 4 |
| 2010 | Hanshin TigersHanshin ※ | Sep 9 | 19 |
| 2009 | Yomiuri GiantsYomiuri | Aug 27 | 26 |
| 2008 | Hanshin TigersHanshin ※ | Jul 22 | 46 |
| 2007 | Chunichi DragonsChunichi ※ | Sep 24 | 7 |
| 2006 | Chunichi DragonsChunichi | Aug 12 | 40 |
Years marked ※ are those where the club that lit the magic number differs from the official champion (e.g. it went dark and another club came back).
Magic numbers, formally: lighting, M0, going dark and relighting
The magic number M is the smallest number of remaining wins that clinches the pennant regardless of what rivals do. It is an exact computation that accounts for remaining head-to-head games, assuming the most favorable allocation - winning first the games that give rivals nothing. The day M reaches 0 is the clinch date.
By convention the magic number 'lights up' when every other club has lost the ability to clinch on its own. It can go dark again after a losing stretch (a rival's self-control can revive), so a lit number is not a clinched pennant. A dark number can relight later, and the lit club can even change. The season-history section of this page lists every lighting, unlighting and relighting with its date.
The target club: the rival that sets the number
The magic number can be computed independently against each rival: 'how many of my remaining wins guarantee finishing strictly ahead of this rival even if it maxes out its remaining games'. The largest of those per-rival values is M, and the rival that produces it is the 'target club'. When the target club loses, M can drop without the leader even playing.
The target is not fixed. If the target club keeps losing and its requirement falls, the next rival becomes the new target. The per-rival breakdown table on this page shows which club currently sets M, how many wins are needed against each rival, and how many head-to-head games remain.
Lighting conditions and self-control: elimination it is not
The lighting condition is that exactly one club in the league still controls its own fate. Controlling your own fate means winning out would clinch the pennant regardless of other results. In other words, a magic number lights up not when a club achieves something, but at the moment every other club's self-control disappears.
Losing self-control is not elimination: the club can still win the pennant if rivals drop games, and control can be regained as the race unfolds. In this page's test, ties are resolved in the least favorable way for the club in question (as losses) and equal percentages count as losing the tiebreaker (a pessimistic convention).
How M falls: sometimes by 2 or more at once
The basic pattern is 'your win takes 1 off; a target-club loss takes 1 off'. Beating the target club head-to-head does both at once, and if the target changes at the same time, the number can move even further. Conversely, your own loss never increases M (it just fails to shrink) - but if a rival regains self-control, the number goes dark.
So that you never need to memorize these rules, the scenario table on this page recomputes M exactly for every win-loss combination of the next single game of the club holding the magic number and of the target club (other games on the same day are left unplayed). The description above is only a guide; the exact values in the scenario table are authoritative.
Frequently asked questions
What is a magic number?
The smallest number of remaining wins that clinches the pennant regardless of rivals. It 'lights up' when every other club loses the ability to clinch on its own, and the day it reaches 0 is the clinch date.
What is the magic number's 'target club'?
Among the per-rival wins-needed values, the rival that produces the largest one. Since the magic number equals that maximum, a target-club loss can shrink M even on the leader's day off. The target changes as the standings evolve.
Can a lit magic number disappear?
Yes. A lit number means every other club has lost self-control, so a losing stretch that revives any rival's self-control puts the number out. It relights when the condition holds again. This page's season history lists each lighting, unlighting and relighting with dates.
What happens at M0?
The day M reaches 0 is the clinch date (by percentage alone). For the outlook on when M0 is likely - the projected clinch-date distribution - see the projected clinch dates page.
Are the lighting forecasts official or guaranteed?
No. The 'earliest' date is a best-case guide assuming the most favorable run of results, and the 'projected' date is a statistical distribution (median and 80% range) from simulations of the remaining games. Neither guarantees an outcome, and both move daily with the season. Actual game results decide the lighting.