How many wins to the CS line?
Third-place DeNA have clinched a Climax Series berth.
- Hanshin Tigers Berth secured 79 W 62 L 2 T, .560, 0 left
- Yomiuri Giants Berth secured 76 W 64 L 3 T, .543, 0 left
- Yokohama DeNA BayStars Berth secured 71 W 69 L 3 T, .507, 0 left
- Hiroshima Toyo Carp Out of reach this season 61 W 78 L 4 T, .439, 0 left
- Tokyo Yakult Swallows Out of reach this season 61 W 80 L 2 T, .433, 0 left
- Chunichi Dragons Out of reach this season 60 W 81 L 2 T, .426, 0 left
"X more wins" counts down to the pennant / CS line guides, not a magic number (pennant or CS) that guarantees a clinch. Read how this differs from magic numbers
And the pennant line? See the pennant-line lookup
How high are the Climax Series odds? Climax Series berth odds
Reachable win ranges
Each bar runs from losing out (current wins) to winning out. Vertical lines mark the guide for the pennant and Climax Series lines. The small tick on each bar marks where the club lands if it plays .500 ball the rest of the way.
Scroll right to see the full chart
Data table
The share of projected seasons in which a final total of X wins reached the line. Standings are decided by winning percentage, so ties can shift the outcome at the same win total.
Scroll right for more
| Final wins | Reached CS line (top 3) (%) |
Reached pennant line (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 71 | 100 | 0 |
| 72 | 100 | 0 |
| 73 | 100 | 0 |
| 74 | 100 | 0 |
| 75 | 100 | 0 |
| 76 | 100 | 0 |
| 77 | 100 | 0 |
| 78 | 100 | 0 |
Side-by-side wins needed by club
Each row is a final win total, and each cell is the remaining record needed to reach it. Reading across a row compares the records that would leave the clubs level on wins. The top row shows each club's maximum if they win out. The '.500 pace' mark inside a cell shows where that club lands if it plays .500 ball the rest of the way (rounded up when the club has an odd number of games left). Standings are decided by winning percentage, so ties can shift the order at the same win total.
Scroll right for more
| Final wins | Hanshin | Yomiuri | DeNA | Hiroshima | Yakult | Chunichi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| If they win out | 79 wins.560 | 76 wins.543 | 71 wins.507 | 61 wins.439 | 61 wins.433 | 60 wins.426 |
| 79 winsMedian pennant line | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 78 wins | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 77 wins | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 76 wins | Reached | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 75 wins | Reached | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 74 wins | Reached | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 73 wins | Reached | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 72 wins | Reached | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 71 winsMedian CS line | Reached | Reached | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 70 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 69 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 68 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 67 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 66 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 65 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 64 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 63 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 62 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 61 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | Reached | Reached | Out of reach |
| 60 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | Reached | Reached | Reached |
| 59 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | Reached | Reached | Reached |
Share that reached the line, by final win total
Each step curve shows the share of projected seasons in which a final total of X wins reached the line. The win total where a curve crosses 50% is the guide for that line.
Roughly 71 wins for the CS line and 79 for the pennant are the 50-50 guides.
Scroll right to see the full chart
The estimated figures are worked out by this site and are not official announcements.
What the Climax Series line is: top three by winning percentage
The top three clubs of each league's regular season advance to the Climax Series. Standings are decided by winning percentage (wins divided by decisions) with ties dropped from the denominator, so at the same win total a club with more ties shows a higher percentage. 'How many wins gets you to the CS' is therefore a relative number that depends on that season's ties and on who is fighting for third place.
The reach rate is the share of finishes with X wins that ended in the top three. The 'median CS line' is the smallest win total at which the reach rate exceeds 50 percent.
The win total you roughly need to win the pennant (the pennant line) has its own lookup page in the same format. The charts on this page also show the pennant line as a reference. How many more wins lock a top-three finish in is on the Central League CS clinch numbers and Pacific League CS clinch numbers.
The same calculation as the odds board
The computation uses the same calculation as the pennant race odds board. Each projected season is ranked with the official standings rules, tiebreakers included. The numbers are this site's own estimates, not official announcements.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Climax Series?
It is NPB's postseason format in which the top three clubs of each league play for the right to reach the Japan Series, held in both leagues since 2007. A third-place finish keeps the road to the championship open even without a pennant.