How many wins to the CS line?
Third-place DeNA are 5 wins away from the CS line (9 games left).
- Hanshin Berth secured 72 W 58 L 1 T, 12 left
- Yomiuri Berth secured 73 W 59 L 2 T, 9 left
- DeNA To the CS line 5 more wins 66 W 65 L 3 T, 9 left At a .500 pace: 70 - 71 wins → right at the CS line
- Yakult Out of reach this season 57 W 74 L 2 T, 10 left
- Chunichi Out of reach this season 58 W 76 L 2 T, 7 left
- Hiroshima Out of reach this season 53 W 73 L 4 T, 13 left
"X more wins" counts down to the pennant / CS line guides, not the magic numbers (pennant or CS) that guarantee a clinch. Read how this differs from magic numbers
All probabilities are model estimates and do not guarantee outcomes.
And the pennant line? See the pennant-line lookup
How does tonight's game move the odds? See tonight's scenario board
Reachable win ranges
Each bar runs from losing out (current wins) to winning out. Vertical lines mark the guide for the pennant and Climax Series lines. The small tick on each bar marks where the club lands if it plays .500 ball the rest of the way.
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Data table
The share of projected seasons in which a final total of X wins reached the line. Standings are decided by winning percentage, so ties can shift the outcome at the same win total.
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| Final wins | Reached CS line (top 3) (%) | Reached pennant line (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 67 | 1 | 0 |
| 68 | 7 | 0 |
| 69 | 21 | 0 |
| 70 | 45 | 0 |
| 71 | 70 | 0 |
| 72 | 89 | 0 |
| 73 | 97 | 0 |
| 74 | 100 | 0 |
| 75 | 100 | 0 |
| 76 | 100 | 2 |
| 77 | 100 | 11 |
| 78 | 100 | 33 |
| 79 | 100 | 62 |
| 80 | 100 | 85 |
| 81 | 100 | 96 |
| 82 | 100 | 99 |
All probabilities are model estimates and do not guarantee outcomes.
Side-by-side wins needed by club
Each row is a final win total, and each cell is the remaining record needed to reach it. Reading across a row compares the records that would leave the clubs level on wins. The top row shows each club's maximum if they win out. The '.500 pace' mark inside a cell shows where that club lands if it plays .500 ball the rest of the way (rounded up when the club has an odd number of games left). Standings are decided by winning percentage, so ties can shift the order at the same win total.
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| Final wins | T | G | DB | S | D | C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| If they win out | 84 wins | 82 wins | 75 wins | 67 wins | 65 wins | 66 wins |
| … | ||||||
| 79 winsMedian pennant line | 7 - 5 | 6 - 3 | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 78 wins | 6 - 6.500 pace | 5 - 4.500 pace | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 77 wins | 5 - 7 | 4 - 5 | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 76 wins | 4 - 8 | 3 - 6 | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 75 wins | 3 - 9 | 2 - 7 | 9 - 0 | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 74 wins | 2 - 10 | 1 - 8 | 8 - 1 | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 73 wins | 1 - 11 | Reached | 7 - 2 | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 72 wins | Reached | Reached | 6 - 3 | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 71 winsMedian CS line | Reached | Reached | 5 - 4.500 pace | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 70 wins | Reached | Reached | 4 - 5 | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 69 wins | Reached | Reached | 3 - 6 | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 68 wins | Reached | Reached | 2 - 7 | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 67 wins | Reached | Reached | 1 - 8 | 10 - 0 | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 66 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | 9 - 1 | Out of reach | 13 - 0 |
| 65 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | 8 - 2 | 7 - 0 | 12 - 1 |
| 64 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | 7 - 3 | 6 - 1 | 11 - 2 |
| 63 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | 6 - 4 | 5 - 2 | 10 - 3 |
| 62 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | 5 - 5.500 pace | 4 - 3.500 pace | 9 - 4 |
| 61 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | 4 - 6 | 3 - 4 | 8 - 5 |
| 60 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | 3 - 7 | 2 - 5 | 7 - 6.500 pace |
| 59 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | 2 - 8 | 1 - 6 | 6 - 7 |
All probabilities are model estimates and do not guarantee outcomes.
Share that reached the line, by final win total
Each step curve shows the share of projected seasons in which a final total of X wins reached the line. The win total where a curve crosses 50% is the guide for that line.
Roughly 71 wins for the CS line and 79 for the pennant are the 50-50 guides. If third-place DeNA play .500 ball the rest of the way, their final win total (71 wins) reached the CS line in 70% of the projected outcomes.
Scroll right to see the full chart
Projected CS clinch dates and CS berth magic numbers now have a dedicated page. CS clinch dates
What the Climax Series line is: top three by winning percentage
The top three clubs of each league's regular season advance to the Climax Series. Standings are decided by winning percentage (wins divided by decisions) with ties dropped from the denominator, so at the same win total a club with more ties shows a higher percentage. 'How many wins gets you to the CS' is therefore a relative number that depends on that season's ties and on who is fighting for third place.
The CS line on this page comes from repeated simulated runs of the remaining schedule: for each simulated season we record whether a final total of X wins reached the CS line (a top-three finish). The 'median CS line' is the smallest win total at which the share that reached the line exceeds 50 percent - the single most quotable number, though the real answer is a distribution.
The win total you roughly need to win the pennant (the pennant line) has its own lookup page in the same format. The charts on this page also show the pennant line as a reference.
The same calculation as the odds board
The computation uses the same calculation as the pennant race odds board. Each projected season is ranked with the official standings rules, tiebreakers included. The numbers are this site's own estimates, not official announcements.
Frequently asked questions
How many wins is the Climax Series berth line?
There is no fixed number. The CS line is relative - it depends on how far the clubs fighting for third place climb, and it moves every day with the season and the number of ties. The top of this page shows the median of the simulated distribution as today's guide.
How does this differ from the pennant line?
The pennant line is the final win total you roughly need to finish first; the CS line is what you need for a top-three finish. They are driven by different races - the pennant line by how far the runner-up climbs, the CS line by the fourth-place club - and the pennant line has its own lookup page.
What is the Climax Series?
It is NPB's postseason format in which the top three clubs of each league play for the right to reach the Japan Series, held in both leagues since 2007. A third-place finish keeps the road to the championship open even without a pennant.