Central League Run Expectancy, Steals (2026)

Data as of
  • ✓Hanshin 0 - 4 Yakult

The one game today is included as provisional results (official figures update the next morning)

Over the last 3 seasons in the Central League, run expectancy with a runner on 1st and no outs is 0.679 runs, and 0.576 runs after a sacrifice bunt to 1 out with a runner on 2nd.

This page lines up run expectancy for the 24 runner and out states in games between Central League clubs, with what sacrifice bunts and steals gain or cost.

Run expectancy by runners and outs (last 3 seasons, runs)

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Runners 0 outs 1 out 2 outs
Bases empty 0.365 0.193 0.073
1st 0.679 0.413 0.191
2nd 0.980 0.576 0.262
3rd 1.365 0.882 0.298
1st & 2nd 1.239 0.713 0.384
1st & 3rd 1.552 1.063 0.406
2nd & 3rd 1.833 1.231 0.488
Bases loaded 2.127 1.243 0.590

See nextClub strength breakdownHighest-rated club in its leagueHanshin PitchingS− BattingAClub strength breakdownHighest-rated battersHighest-rated club in its leagueHanshin 佐藤 輝明S 森下 翔太S−Highest-rated battersHighest-rated pitchersHighest-rated club in its leagueHanshin 髙橋 遥人A+ 村上 頌樹A+Highest-rated pitchersSalary guidePlayers whose guide tops ¥20 million, by club

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Scoring chance by runners and outs (last 3 seasons, %)

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Runners 0 outs 1 out 2 outs
Bases empty 21.3 12.1 4.9
1st 34.7 22.6 10.7
2nd 57.1 34.7 18.3
3rd 82.4 63.6 22.7
1st & 2nd 56.0 35.7 20.8
1st & 3rd 81.8 62.0 24.3
2nd & 3rd 80.6 63.3 23.0
Bases loaded 81.6 58.9 27.1
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Before and after a sacrifice bunt (last 3 seasons)

Run expectancy (runs)

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Situation Before After Change
0 outs, 1st → 1 out, 2nd 0.679 0.576 −0.103
0 outs, 2nd → 1 out, 3rd 0.980 0.882 −0.098
0 outs, 1st & 2nd → 1 out, 2nd & 3rd 1.239 1.231 −0.008

Scoring chance (%)

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Situation Before After Change
0 outs, 1st → 1 out, 2nd 34.7 34.7 0.0
0 outs, 2nd → 1 out, 3rd 57.1 63.6 +6.5
0 outs, 1st & 2nd → 1 out, 2nd & 3rd 56.0 63.3 +7.3
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Break-even rate for stolen bases (last 3 seasons)

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Steal Break-even
rate		 Actual
rate		 Attempts
Steal of 2nd (0 outs) .618 .561 253
Steal of 2nd (1 out) .676 .643 426
Steal of 2nd (2 outs) .729 .637 474
Steal of 3rd (0 outs) .671 .667 3
Steal of 3rd (1 out) .621 .813 16
Steal of 3rd (2 outs) .880 .857 7
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Steal attempts and caught stealing (last 3 seasons)

Clubs

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Team Attempts Caught Caught
rate		 Attempt
rate
Yakult 258 103 .399 .048
Yomiuri 197 72 .365 .040
Hanshin 226 71 .314 .045
Chunichi 238 73 .307 .046
DeNA 333 94 .282 .064
Hiroshima 232 65 .280 .045

Pitchers (3 with the most batters faced)

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Pitcher Attempts Caught Caught
rate		 Attempt
rate
Hanshin
村上 頌樹 24 8 .333 .041
才木 浩人 35 5 .143 .060
髙橋 遥人 6 3 .500 .023
Yomiuri
井上 温大 9 8 .889 .021
竹丸 和幸 7 2 .286 .039
戸郷 翔征 14 5 .357 .030
DeNA
東 克樹 20 9 .450 .034
石田 裕太郎 25 9 .360 .074
平良 拳太郎 12 2 .167 .050
Hiroshima
床田 寛樹 15 10 .667 .024
森下 暢仁 28 4 .143 .051
栗林 良吏 13 2 .154 .048
Yakult
山野 太一 19 4 .211 .052
奥川 恭伸 39 10 .256 .102
吉村 貢司郎 5 2 .400 .009
Chunichi
金丸 夢斗 9 1 .111 .028
柳 裕也 22 10 .455 .054
大野 雄大 6 3 .500 .016

Catchers (3 with the most attempts)

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Catcher Attempts Caught Caught
rate		 Attempt
rate
Hanshin
坂本 誠志郎 105 36 .343 .045
梅野 隆太郎 70 20 .286 .051
伏見 寅威 2 1 .500 .007
Yomiuri
岸田 行倫 69 32 .464 .037
大城 卓三 37 12 .324 .035
甲斐 拓也 31 7 .226 .045
DeNA
山本 祐大 125 43 .344 .054
松尾 汐恩 81 24 .296 .078
戸柱 恭孝 32 9 .281 .059
Hiroshima
坂倉 将吾 87 19 .218 .049
持丸 泰輝 36 12 .333 .061
石原 貴規 33 14 .424 .037
Yakult
古賀 優大 80 38 .475 .048
中村 悠平 53 20 .377 .034
鈴木 叶 34 10 .294 .095
Chunichi
石伊 雄太 70 24 .343 .042
木下 拓哉 42 11 .262 .053
加藤 匠馬 17 8 .471 .033

The estimated figures are worked out by this site and are not official announcements.

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