How many wins to the pennant line?
Hanshin have clinched the league title.
- Hanshin Tigers Clinched 79 W 62 L 2 T, .560, 0 left
- Yomiuri Giants Out of reach this season 76 W 64 L 3 T, .543, 0 left
- Yokohama DeNA BayStars Out of reach this season 71 W 69 L 3 T, .507, 0 left
- Hiroshima Toyo Carp Out of reach this season 61 W 78 L 4 T, .439, 0 left
- Tokyo Yakult Swallows Out of reach this season 61 W 80 L 2 T, .433, 0 left
- Chunichi Dragons Out of reach this season 60 W 81 L 2 T, .426, 0 left
"X more wins" counts down to the pennant line guide, not the pennant magic number that guarantees a clinch. Read how this differs from magic numbers
And the CS berth line? CS line table
So when will it be decided? Projected clinch dates
How does tonight's game move the odds? See tonight's scenario board
Reachable win ranges
Each bar runs from losing out (current wins) to winning out. The vertical line marks the pennant line guide. The small tick on each bar marks where the club lands if it plays .500 ball the rest of the way.
Scroll right to see the full chart
Data table
The share of projected seasons in which a final total of X wins reached the line. Standings are decided by winning percentage, so ties can shift the outcome at the same win total.
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| Final wins | Reached pennant line (%) |
|---|---|
| 71 | 0 |
| 72 | 0 |
| 73 | 0 |
| 74 | 0 |
| 75 | 0 |
| 76 | 0 |
| 77 | 0 |
| 78 | 0 |
Side-by-side wins needed by club
Each row is a final win total, and each cell is the remaining record needed to reach it. Reading across a row compares the records that would leave the clubs level on wins. The top row shows each club's maximum if they win out. The '.500 pace' mark inside a cell shows where that club lands if it plays .500 ball the rest of the way (rounded up when the club has an odd number of games left). Standings are decided by winning percentage, so ties can shift the order at the same win total.
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| Final wins | Hanshin | Yomiuri | DeNA | Hiroshima | Yakult | Chunichi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| If they win out | 79 wins.560 | 76 wins.543 | 71 wins.507 | 61 wins.439 | 61 wins.433 | 60 wins.426 |
| 79 winsMedian pennant line | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 78 wins | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 77 wins | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 76 wins | Reached | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 75 wins | Reached | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 74 wins | Reached | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 73 wins | Reached | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 72 wins | Reached | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 71 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 70 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 69 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 68 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 67 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 66 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 65 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 64 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 63 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 62 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | Out of reach | Out of reach | Out of reach |
| 61 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | Reached | Reached | Out of reach |
| 60 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | Reached | Reached | Reached |
| 59 wins | Reached | Reached | Reached | Reached | Reached | Reached |
Share that reached the line, by final win total
Each step curve shows the share of projected seasons in which a final total of X wins reached the line. The win total where a curve crosses 50% is the guide for that line.
Roughly 79 wins for the pennant is the 50-50 guide.
Scroll right to see the full chart
The estimated figures are worked out by this site and are not official announcements.
Why the pennant line is not a fixed win total
NPB standings are decided by winning percentage (wins divided by decisions), with ties dropped from the denominator. At the same win total, a club with more ties shows a higher percentage - so 'how many wins clinches it' depends on that season's ties and on every rival's record.
The pennant line is also relative: it is set by how far the runner-up climbs. Tight seasons push the line up; runaway seasons pull it down. That is why this page presents the lines as a spread of reach rates rather than single definitive numbers.
How to read the table
The reach rate is the share of finishes with X wins that won the pennant.
The 'median line' is the smallest win total at which the share that reached the line exceeds 50 percent - the single most quotable number, though the real answer is the distribution shown in the table. The reachable-wins chart shows each club's range from losing out (current wins) to winning out, against the median lines.
How this differs from a magic number
A magic number is a mathematical clinch calculation: the count until a title is secured regardless of what rivals do. The lines on this page are probabilistic guides from an estimate - they do not determine clinches.
Even when a probability reads 100% or 0%, that is a rounded share from the estimate, not a mathematical clinch or elimination. Official announcements take precedence for any clinch or elimination.
The same calculation as the odds board
The computation uses the same calculation as the pennant race odds board. Each projected season is ranked with the official standings rules, tiebreakers included. The numbers are this site's own estimates, not official announcements.
Frequently asked questions
How do ties affect the lines?
NPB standings use winning percentage with ties dropped from the denominator, so a club with more ties posts a higher percentage at the same win total - which can lower the wins needed. This is why the share that reached the line in the table is rarely a flat 100% at a given win total.