Current Climax Series magic numbers
DeNA clinch a Climax Series berth (a top-three finish) with 1 more wins.
So when is a berth actually clinched? CS clinch dates
What are the CS odds right now? CS berth odds
What is the pennant magic number? Magic numbers
CS berth magic numbers
A safe-side guide (upper bound) to the number of wins that clinches a top-three finish (a Climax Series berth) regardless of what rivals do. Unlike the pennant magic number, which is computed exactly, this test leans conservative: a club may in fact clinch with fewer wins than shown, but the shown number of wins always suffices. Ties and equal percentages are resolved unfavorably, as with the pennant magic number. 'Controls top 3' means the club would finish top three by winning out, shown only when mathematically certain. This is a different number from the "X more wins" on the CS line chart, which is a simulated guide to reaching the line.
Central League
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| Team | CS magic | Status | Left | Climax Series odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hanshin | Clinched | CS berth clinched | 12 | 100% |
| Yomiuri | Clinched | CS berth clinched | 9 | 100% |
| DeNA | 1 | Controls top 3 | 9 | 100% |
| Yakult | — | Top 3 out of their hands | 10 | 0% |
| Chunichi | — | Eliminated from Climax Series contention | 7 | 0% |
| Hiroshima | — | Top 3 out of their hands | 13 | 0% |
All probabilities are model estimates and do not guarantee outcomes. Probabilities are shown rounded to one decimal place: a displayed 100% does not mean mathematical certainty, nor does 0% mean elimination.
What the Climax Series berth magic number is - and how it differs from the pennant magic number
The CS berth magic number is a safe-side guide (upper bound) to the number of wins that makes a top-three finish (a Climax Series berth) mathematically certain regardless of what rivals do. Where the pennant magic number measures certainty of first place with an exact computation, this one measures certainty of the top three with a conservative test - and with three seats in play, it usually lights up earlier and burns down faster.
The test resolves ties and equal percentages against the club in question (a pessimistic convention) and even checks whether several rivals could climb past at once. The evaluation is a safe-side upper bound: a club may in fact clinch with fewer wins than shown, but the shown number of wins always suffices. Clubs already certain show 'Clinched'; clubs for which no self-contained clinch condition can be shown under the safe-side test show '—'.
Reading the table - status and games remaining
The status column ranks states from strongest to weakest: a clinched Climax Series berth (a top-three finish is locked in); the top three in the club's own hands (winning out would put it in the top three); the top three out of its hands (even winning out leaves part of the outcome with other clubs); and eliminated from contention (a top-three finish is mathematically impossible). The games-remaining column is that club's unplayed games, and a magic number never exceeds it.
The berth-odds column is the share of repeated playthroughs of the remaining schedule in which the club finished in the top three. Two clubs with the same magic number can have different odds, because their remaining opponents and dates differ. Official announcements take precedence for any clinch.
Frequently asked questions
What is a Climax Series berth magic number?
It is a safe-side guide (upper bound) to the number of wins that makes a top-three finish mathematically certain regardless of rivals - the Climax Series counterpart of the pennant magic number. Because the test is conservative, a club may clinch with fewer wins than shown, but winning the shown number of games always clinches the berth.
How does it differ from the pennant magic number?
The pennant magic number counts down to clinching first place; the CS berth magic number counts down to clinching the top three. Since two clubs may finish above you, the CS number usually lights up earlier. Note that the CS test is safe-side, so in some situations the shown figure can be conservative (larger than strictly necessary). The pennant figures are on the pennant magic number page.
What does '—' in the magic column mean?
It means that even winning out would not, under this safe-side test, guarantee a top-three finish. Clubs judged able to control the top three always show a number (at most their games remaining), so '—' only appears when no self-contained clinch condition can be shown. The club's Climax Series hopes are not gone: both a berth and renewed control remain possible depending on rivals.