In the Last 10 column, a tall dark bar is a win, a short light bar a loss, and a thin line a tie - the same encoding as the win-loss calendar.
'In control (pennant) / Needs help (pennant)' shows whether a club can still clinch the pennant on its own by winning out - separate from controlling a top-three (CS) berth; M is the lit magic number.
Central League
The figure under each probability is the change since Sat, Sep 19. The reference is the most recent date on which that league played, so dates without games are not used as a reference. Small movements are shown as plain numbers without color.
Scroll right for W-L, PCT and more
| Rank | Team | Pennant odds | Climax Series odds | W - L - T | PCT | GB (1st) | Left | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HanshinM11 | +1.8 pt | 72 - 58 - 1 | .554 | — | 12 | 3 - 7 | |
| 2 | YomiuriNeeds help (pennant) | −1.6 pt | 73 - 59 - 2 | .553 | 0.0 | 9 | 6 - 4 | |
| 3 | DeNANeeds help (pennant) | −0.2 pt | 66 - 65 - 3 | .504 | 6.5 | 9 | 8 - 2 | |
| 4 | YakultEliminated | ±0.0 pt | 57 - 74 - 2 | .435 | 15.5 | 10 | 3 - 7 | |
| 5 | ChunichiEliminated | ±0.0 pt | 58 - 76 - 2 | .433 | 16.0 | 7 | 5 - 5 | |
| 6 | HiroshimaEliminated | ±0.0 pt | 53 - 73 - 4 | .421 | 17.0 | 13 | 4 - 6 |
All probabilities are model estimates and do not guarantee outcomes. The table below is reference data compiled by this site, not an official announcement.
Magic number status and target club? Magic numbers
Looking for one club's odds and strength in one place? Club boards (all 12 teams)
Central League standings over the last 10, 20 and 30 games
See the standings table on its own
Season highlights
Days in first place are counted per day with games played.
When will the pennant be decided?
Central LeagueMedian clinch date: Sat, Oct 3
All probabilities are model estimates and do not guarantee outcomes.
Games over .500
Central LeagueBest W−L balance (current): Hanshin +14
Pennant odds over time
The same model re-run on each day's data, backfilled to opening day.
Scroll right to see the full chart
Final-rank probability matrix
Each cell is the share of simulated seasons that ended at that rank (blank under 0.5%). The range column shows the best and worst ranks that appeared at least once.
Gray shading marks ranks that can no longer be reached, whatever the remaining results.
Plain gray cells mark ranks that did not occur in any simulated season, though they are not proven unreachable.
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| Team | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hanshin | 53.8% | 45.4% | 0.7% | #1-#3 | |||
| Yomiuri | 46.2% | 53.7% | #1-#3 | ||||
| DeNA | 0.8% | 99.1% | #1-#3 | ||||
| Yakult | 45.1% | 40% | 14.9% | #4-#6 | |||
| Chunichi | 46.2% | 38.2% | 15.6% | #4-#6 | |||
| Hiroshima | 8.7% | 21.8% | 69.5% | #4-#6 |
All probabilities are model estimates and do not guarantee outcomes.
Games-behind ladder
Current positions measured in games behind the leader.
Scroll right to see the full chart
Pennant and Climax Series win lines
Central LeagueMedian pennant line: 79 wins / Median CS line: 71 wins
All probabilities are model estimates and do not guarantee outcomes.
True strength (Pythagorean)
Central LeagueLargest gap vs expectation: Yakult +4.6 wins (overperforming)
Team strength rating (Elo)
Central LeagueLeague leader: Hanshin 1527.0
Remaining head-to-head games
Derived from the official standings (25 games per league opponent and 3 per interleague opponent, minus games played).
Central League
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| T | G | DB | S | D | C | Interleague | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hanshin | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 | |
| Yomiuri | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 9 | |
| DeNA | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | |
| Yakult | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | |
| Chunichi | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | |
| Hiroshima | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
Pace projection for the remaining matchups
A projection of each club's final record if its head-to-head pace so far continued through the remaining games. All remaining games are assumed to end in a decision (the tie count stays at its current value).
Central League
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| Team | Current record | Left | Projected final | Projected PCT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yomiuri | 73 - 59 - 2 | 9 | 78.5 - 62.5 - 2 | .557 |
| Hanshin | 72 - 58 - 1 | 12 | 79.0 - 63.0 - 1 | .556 |
| DeNA | 66 - 65 - 3 | 9 | 71.0 - 69.0 - 3 | .507 |
| Chunichi | 58 - 76 - 2 | 7 | 61.4 - 79.6 - 2 | .436 |
| Yakult | 57 - 74 - 2 | 10 | 60.8 - 80.2 - 2 | .431 |
| Hiroshima | 53 - 73 - 4 | 13 | 58.3 - 80.7 - 4 | .419 |
Each matchup so far is a small sample of at most a couple dozen games, so this extrapolation is a reference value only. Nothing here guarantees results.
Impact of the next game
Shows how each team's pennant odds and Climax Series odds would change after a win or a loss in its next game on the published schedule. Teams whose schedule is not yet published are marked (schedule TBA), and the opponent with the most games remaining stands in as a placeholder.
In the Current columns, darker cells mean higher odds.
Central League
Scroll right for Climax Series scenarios
| Team | Next opponent | Pennant odds | Climax Series odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | After a win | After a loss | Current | After a win | After a loss | ||
| Hanshinvs DeNA Mon, Sep 21 | vs DeNAMon, Sep 21 | 53.8% | 62.4% +8.6 pt | 44.7% −9.1 pt | 100% | 100% ±0.0 pt | 100% ±0.0 pt |
| Yomiurivs Hiroshima Tue, Sep 22 | vs HiroshimaTue, Sep 22 | 46.2% | 54% +7.8 pt | 36.4% −9.8 pt | 100% | 100% ±0.0 pt | 100% ±0.0 pt |
| DeNAvs Hanshin Mon, Sep 21 | vs HanshinMon, Sep 21 | 0% | 0% ±0.0 pt | 0% ±0.0 pt | 100% | 100% ±0.0 pt | 100% ±0.0 pt |
| Hiroshimavs Chunichi Mon, Sep 21 | vs ChunichiMon, Sep 21 | 0% | 0% ±0.0 pt | 0% ±0.0 pt | 0% | 0% ±0.0 pt | 0% ±0.0 pt |
| Chunichivs Hiroshima Mon, Sep 21 | vs HiroshimaMon, Sep 21 | 0% | 0% ±0.0 pt | 0% ±0.0 pt | 0% | 0% ±0.0 pt | 0% ±0.0 pt |
| Yakultvs Hanshin Tue, Sep 22 | vs HanshinTue, Sep 22 | 0% | 0% ±0.0 pt | 0% ±0.0 pt | 0% | 0% ±0.0 pt | 0% ±0.0 pt |
Pennant race simulator
Pick one club and adjust how many of its remaining games it wins; the pennant and Climax Series odds recalculate instantly. Everything runs in your browser; nothing you enter is sent anywhere.
Pick a club to see how its pennant and Climax Series odds change with a different rest-of-season record.
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| Team | Pennant odds | Climax Series odds |
|---|---|---|
| Hanshin | 53.8% | 100% |
| Yomiuri | 46.2% | 100% |
| DeNA | 0% | 100% |
| Yakult | 0% | 0% |
| Chunichi | 0% | 0% |
| Hiroshima | 0% | 0% |
The selected club's remaining games are fixed to the chosen record (no ties) while the other clubs keep their current pace. Left of the arrow is the current estimate; right is the estimate under the chosen record.
All probabilities are model estimates and do not guarantee outcomes.
Inputs for this date
- Tie rate (Central, observed)1.7%
Standings are decided by winning percentage
An NPB regular season is 143 games per club: a 25-game round robin against each league rival (125 games) plus 18 interleague games. Standings are decided by winning percentage, computed as wins divided by decisions; tied games are not replayed and drop out of the denominator (per the Pacific League Agreement).
That is why a club can lead in wins yet trail in the standings: a team with more ties has a smaller denominator, so the same win total yields a higher percentage. Down the stretch, the tie count often becomes the decisive variable.
Tiebreakers differ between the two leagues
Tied winning percentages are resolved differently by league. The Central League ranks clubs by (1) most wins, (2) head-to-head record between the tied clubs, (3) record within the league, then (4) the previous season's standings. When three or more clubs tie in both percentage and wins, their combined head-to-head records are compared (per the 2015 agreement amendment).
The Pacific League has no wins criterion: it goes straight to (1) head-to-head record, (2) intra-league record over the 125 league games, then (3) the previous season's standings. The simulation on this page implements these official rules exactly when ranking each simulated season.
Climax Series qualification: finish in the top three
The top three clubs in each league reach the Climax Series. Second and third place meet in the First Stage (best of three), and the winner faces the pennant winner in the Final Stage (a six-game format in which the league champion receives an advantage; the exact form is set in each year's tournament outline). The Final Stage winner advances to the Nippon Series.
The Climax Series odds on this page are simply the share of simulations in which a club finishes third or higher. Even for clubs whose pennant hopes have faded, a top-three finish keeps a route to the Nippon Series open - which is why the race for third stays meaningful deep into the season.
What these numbers mean
The 'pennant odds' on this page are the share of simulated seasons in which a club finished first; the 'Climax Series odds' are the share finishing in the top three. Each simulated season is ranked according to the official standings rules, including tiebreakers.
The numbers are estimates from this site's own statistical simulation, not official announcements. Each club's underlying strength is read from its runs scored and runs allowed this season together with its win-loss record, because runs give a truer picture of a club than the win-loss column alone (the true-strength page shows what the run difference implies). Home advantage is taken into account from the published remaining schedule (games without a fixed date are treated as neutral). Individual player numbers, starting pitchers, injuries, trades, this season's head-to-head records, recent form and the actual order of the schedule are not modeled.
Disclaimer: what these numbers do not promise
Every probability on this page is a statistical model estimate and does not guarantee actual outcomes. This is not gambling or betting information and is not intended for such use. The numbers depend on the model's assumptions (strength estimates, tie rates, schedule handling) and do not reflect real-world factors such as injuries, trades or weather.
This page is reference material based on this site's own statistical simulation. Where standings or results differ from the official records, the official records take precedence.
Frequently asked questions
How are the pennant odds computed?
The remaining schedule is simulated repeatedly with this site's own statistical model, each simulated season is ranked using the official rules, and the share of simulated seasons finishing first is shown as the pennant probability. The numbers are model estimates, not official announcements.
Which clubs qualify for the Climax Series?
The top three in each league. Second and third meet in a best-of-three First Stage; the winner faces the pennant winner in the Final Stage (six-game format with an advantage for the champion), and that winner goes to the Nippon Series.
How are ties in winning percentage broken?
Central League: most wins, then head-to-head record, then intra-league record, then the previous season's standings. Pacific League: head-to-head record, then intra-league record, then the previous season's standings. If three or more CL clubs tie in both percentage and wins, their combined head-to-head records are compared.
Do 100% or 0% mean it is mathematically decided?
Not necessarily. The percentages are simulated shares rounded to one decimal place, so 100% does not mean a mathematical clinch and 0% does not mean elimination. Magic numbers and whether each club still controls its own fate, however, are computed exactly and shown on this page's board. See the magic number page and the projected clinch date page for the details of formal clinches. Each club's win-out and lose-out bounds are shown in the 'Reachable win ranges' chart on the win-line table page.