Current magic numbers
SoftBank have clinched the pennant (by percentage alone).
So when will the pennant be clinched? See the projected clinch dates
How many wins make the pennant line? See the pennant-line lookup
How does tonight's game move the odds? See tonight's scenario board
Magic numbers
The smallest number of remaining wins that clinches the pennant regardless of what rivals do (an exact computation that accounts for remaining head-to-head games). Ties are resolved against the club in question, and equal percentages count as losing the tiebreaker (pessimistic convention). This is a different number from the "X more wins" on the pennant line chart, which is a simulated guide to reaching the line.
Pacific League
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| Team | Magic | Status | Left | Controls pennant |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SoftBank | Clinched (percentage-only rule) | 9 | Yes | |
| Seibu | Eliminated from the pennant race | 9 | No | |
| Nippon-Ham | Eliminated from the pennant race | 8 | No | |
| ORIX | Eliminated from the pennant race | 8 | No | |
| Lotte | Eliminated from the pennant race | 14 | No | |
| Rakuten | Eliminated from the pennant race | 12 | No |
On Wed, Aug 5, the magic number lit for SoftBank at 37 (retro-computed under the percentage-only rule).
The bar in the magic column shows the magic number as a share of remaining games. The longer the bar, the more of the remaining schedule must be won - the smaller the cushion.
Per-rival breakdown (who sets the magic number)
'Wins needed' is the number of remaining wins required to finish strictly ahead of that rival even if the rival maxes out its remaining games (accounting for remaining head-to-head matchups). The largest of these values is the magic number, and the rival that sets it is the 'target club'.
Breakdown from SoftBank's standpoint
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| Rival | Wins needed | Head-to-head left |
|---|---|---|
| Seibu | 0 | 2 |
| Nippon-Ham | 0 | 0 |
| ORIX | 0 | 2 |
| Lotte | 0 | 2 |
| Rakuten | 0 | 3 |
This season's magic number history (lit, dark, self-control lost and regained)
A day-by-day history recomputed from full game results (percentage-only test; ties and equal percentages resolved pessimistically).
Pacific League
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| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Wed, Jun 10 | Rakuten lose the ability to clinch on their own |
| Fri, Jun 12 | Rakuten regain the ability to clinch on their own |
| Sat, Jun 13 | Rakuten lose the ability to clinch on their own |
| Mon (hol), Jul 20 | Lotte lose the ability to clinch on their own |
| Tue, Jul 21 | Lotte regain the ability to clinch on their own |
| Wed, Jul 22 | ORIX lose the ability to clinch on their own |
| Thu, Jul 23 | Lotte lose the ability to clinch on their own |
| Tue, Aug 4 | Seibu lose the ability to clinch on their own |
| Wed, Aug 5 | Nippon-Ham lose the ability to clinch on their own |
| Wed, Aug 5 | SoftBank light up a magic number of 37 |
| Thu, Sep 17 | SoftBank clinch the pennant (M0) |
Scroll right to see the full chart
Magic number lighting dates, last 20 seasons (2006-2025)
This section lists past seasons' results. For the current season, see the status board at the top of the page.
For each season we retro-compute the first game day on which every other club had lost the ability to clinch on its own (= the lighting date), using the percentage-only pessimistic test.
Scroll right to see the full chart
Full list by year
Pacific League
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| Year | Team | Lit on | M at lighting |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Fukuoka SoftBank HawksSoftBank | Sep 5 | 18 |
| 2024 | Fukuoka SoftBank HawksSoftBank | Jul 30 | 42 |
| 2023 | ORIX BuffaloesORIX | Aug 26 | 24 |
| 2022 | Fukuoka SoftBank HawksSoftBank ※ | Sep 15 | 11 |
| 2021 | Chiba Lotte MarinesLotte ※ | Oct 14 | 9 |
| 2020 | Fukuoka SoftBank HawksSoftBank | Oct 21 | 8 |
| 2019 | Fukuoka SoftBank HawksSoftBank ※ | Sep 12 | 12 |
| 2018 | Saitama Seibu LionsSeibu | Sep 17 | 11 |
| 2017 | Fukuoka SoftBank HawksSoftBank | Sep 1 | 16 |
| 2016 | Fukuoka SoftBank HawksSoftBank ※ | Sep 2 | 20 |
| 2015 | Fukuoka SoftBank HawksSoftBank | Aug 5 | 38 |
| 2014 | ORIX BuffaloesORIX ※ | Sep 25 | 7 |
| 2013 | Tohoku Rakuten Golden EaglesRakuten | Aug 25 | 29 |
| 2012 | Hokkaido Nippon-Ham FightersNippon-Ham | Sep 28 | 4 |
| 2011 | Fukuoka SoftBank HawksSoftBank | Sep 17 | 17 |
| 2010 | Saitama Seibu LionsSeibu ※ | Sep 11 | 8 |
| 2009 | Hokkaido Nippon-Ham FightersNippon-Ham | Aug 28 | 29 |
| 2008 | Saitama Seibu LionsSeibu | Aug 19 | 28 |
| 2007 | Hokkaido Nippon-Ham FightersNippon-Ham | Sep 20 | 10 |
| 2006 | Seibu LionsSeibu ※ | Sep 5 | 14 |
Years marked ※ are those where the club that lit the magic number differs from the official champion (e.g. it went dark and another club came back).
Magic numbers, formally: lighting, M0, going dark and relighting
The magic number M is the smallest number of remaining wins that clinches the pennant regardless of what rivals do. It is an exact computation that accounts for remaining head-to-head games, assuming the most favorable allocation - winning first the games that give rivals nothing. The day M reaches 0 is the clinch date.
By convention the magic number 'lights up' when every other club has lost the ability to clinch on its own. It can go dark again after a losing stretch (a rival's self-control can revive), so a lit number is not a clinched pennant. A dark number can relight later, and the lit club can even change. The season-history section of this page lists every lighting, unlighting and relighting with its date.
The target club: the rival that sets the number
The magic number can be computed independently against each rival: 'how many of my remaining wins guarantee finishing strictly ahead of this rival even if it maxes out its remaining games'. The largest of those per-rival values is M, and the rival that produces it is the 'target club'. When the target club loses, M can drop without the leader even playing.
The target is not fixed. If the target club keeps losing and its requirement falls, the next rival becomes the new target. The per-rival breakdown table on this page shows which club currently sets M, how many wins are needed against each rival, and how many head-to-head games remain.
Lighting conditions and self-control: elimination it is not
The lighting condition is that exactly one club in the league still controls its own fate. Controlling your own fate means winning out would clinch the pennant regardless of other results. In other words, a magic number lights up not when a club achieves something, but at the moment every other club's self-control disappears.
Losing self-control is not elimination: the club can still win the pennant if rivals drop games, and control can be regained as the race unfolds. In this page's test, ties are resolved in the least favorable way for the club in question (as losses) and equal percentages count as losing the tiebreaker (a pessimistic convention).
How M falls: sometimes by 2 or more at once
The basic pattern is 'your win takes 1 off; a target-club loss takes 1 off'. Beating the target club head-to-head does both at once, and if the target changes at the same time, the number can move even further. Conversely, your own loss never increases M (it just fails to shrink) - but if a rival regains self-control, the number goes dark.
So that you never need to memorize these rules, the scenario table on this page recomputes M exactly for every win-loss combination of the next single game of the club holding the magic number and of the target club (other games on the same day are left unplayed). The description above is only a guide; the exact values in the scenario table are authoritative.
Frequently asked questions
What is a magic number?
The smallest number of remaining wins that clinches the pennant regardless of rivals. It 'lights up' when every other club loses the ability to clinch on its own, and the day it reaches 0 is the clinch date.
What is the magic number's 'target club'?
Among the per-rival wins-needed values, the rival that produces the largest one. Since the magic number equals that maximum, a target-club loss can shrink M even on the leader's day off. The target changes as the standings evolve.
Can a lit magic number disappear?
Yes. A lit number means every other club has lost self-control, so a losing stretch that revives any rival's self-control puts the number out. It relights when the condition holds again. This page's season history lists each lighting, unlighting and relighting with dates.
What happens at M0?
The day M reaches 0 is the clinch date (by percentage alone). For the outlook on when M0 is likely - the projected clinch-date distribution - see the projected clinch dates page.
Are the lighting forecasts official or guaranteed?
No. The 'earliest' date is a best-case guide assuming the most favorable run of results, and the 'projected' date is a statistical distribution (median and 80% range) from simulations of the remaining games. Neither guarantees an outcome, and both move daily with the season. Actual game results decide the lighting.