When is the earliest possible clinch? Projected clinch dates
Pacific League: SoftBank clinched (Sep 17).
SoftBank have clinched the pennant (decided on Thu, Sep 17)
Among the past 19 seasons of actual clinch dates, this season's clinch date ranks 2-fastest.
Magic numbers / Controlling their own fate: pennant
The smallest number of remaining wins that clinches the pennant regardless of what rivals do. If percentages finish level, the order is settled by head-to-head records and the other league criteria. This is a different number from the "X more wins" on the pennant line chart, which is an estimated guide to reaching the line.
Whether a club would clinch the pennant by winning all remaining games, regardless of rivals.
Pacific League
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| Team | Magic | Status | Controls pennant |
|---|---|---|---|
| SoftBank | 0 | Clinched | Yes |
| Seibu | — | Eliminated from the pennant race | No |
| Nippon-Ham | — | Eliminated from the pennant race | No |
| ORIX | — | Eliminated from the pennant race | No |
| Lotte | — | Eliminated from the pennant race | No |
| Rakuten | — | Eliminated from the pennant race | No |
On Wed, Aug 5, the magic number lit for SoftBank at 37.
Clinch number (wins to clinch the pennant)
A clinch number is the number of wins still needed for the pennant to be mathematically certain.
Pacific League SoftBank = clinched (Sep 17)
The estimated figures are worked out by this site and are not official announcements.
What 'clinched' means here
NPB standings are decided by winning percentage (wins over decisions). On this page, 'clinched' means the state where the club could lose out, every rival could win out, and the standings would still not move.
How magic numbers relate to this page
The magic number M is the smallest number of remaining wins that clinches the pennant regardless of what rivals do, and the day M reaches 0 is the clinch date. This page carries the current numbers and the self-control test in one table. The full picture - how lighting, going dark and relighting work, this season's history, the target club and the per-rival breakdown - lives on the dedicated magic number page.
Controlling your own fate: the pennant
A club 'controls its own fate' when winning all of its remaining games would clinch the pennant regardless of other results. Losing that control is not elimination: the club can still win the pennant depending on rivals, and control can even be regained.
The equivalent test for a top-three finish and the CS berth magic numbers are on the CS clinch-date page.
Reading the projected dates: distributions and approximations
Projected dates are the median and 80% range of the outlook for the day the pennant is clinched.
Frequently asked questions
What if the leaders are tied on percentage late in the season?
If percentages finish level, the order is settled by the league criteria, starting with head-to-head records.
If a club no longer controls its own fate, is it out of the race?
No. Losing self-control means winning out would not guarantee the pennant - it is not elimination. The club can still clinch if rivals drop games, and self-control can be regained as the race unfolds.
What is a clinch number?
It is the number of wins still needed to lock in a place in the standings. For the pennant it is the number of wins after which the clubs below cannot catch up even if they win out - the same thing as the magic number M on this site (M13 = 13 more wins to clinch). For a Climax Series berth it is the number of wins that locks in a top-three (A-class) finish, listed club by club on When are NPB CS berths clinched?.