Pacific League Run Expectancy, Steals (2026)

Data as of
  • ✓Hanshin 0 - 4 Yakult

The one game today is included as provisional results (official figures update the next morning)

Over the last 3 seasons in the Pacific League, run expectancy with a runner on 1st and no outs is 0.738 runs, and 0.585 runs after a sacrifice bunt to 1 out with a runner on 2nd.

This page lines up run expectancy for the 24 runner and out states in games between Pacific League clubs, with what sacrifice bunts and steals gain or cost.

Run expectancy by runners and outs (last 3 seasons, runs)

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Runners 0 outs 1 out 2 outs
Bases empty 0.391 0.197 0.071
1st 0.738 0.418 0.177
2nd 1.041 0.585 0.257
3rd 1.323 0.857 0.285
1st & 2nd 1.373 0.821 0.367
1st & 3rd 1.635 1.056 0.464
2nd & 3rd 1.781 1.321 0.522
Bases loaded 2.066 1.573 0.688

See nextClub strength breakdownHighest-rated club in its leagueNippon-Ham PitchingB− BattingB−Club strength breakdownHighest-rated battersHighest-rated club in its leagueNippon-Ham 水野 達稀A− レイエスBHighest-rated battersHighest-rated pitchersHighest-rated club in its leagueNippon-Ham 柳川 大晟A 北山 亘基B+Highest-rated pitchersSalary guidePlayers whose guide tops ¥20 million, by club

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Scoring chance by runners and outs (last 3 seasons, %)

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Runners 0 outs 1 out 2 outs
Bases empty 22.1 12.1 4.8
1st 36.4 21.4 9.8
2nd 59.9 36.0 18.2
3rd 78.5 63.3 21.3
1st & 2nd 60.5 38.1 19.5
1st & 3rd 86.3 59.8 26.5
2nd & 3rd 82.1 66.8 24.9
Bases loaded 80.6 64.6 29.6
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Before and after a sacrifice bunt (last 3 seasons)

Run expectancy (runs)

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Situation Before After Change
0 outs, 1st → 1 out, 2nd 0.738 0.585 −0.153
0 outs, 2nd → 1 out, 3rd 1.041 0.857 −0.184
0 outs, 1st & 2nd → 1 out, 2nd & 3rd 1.373 1.321 −0.052

Scoring chance (%)

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Situation Before After Change
0 outs, 1st → 1 out, 2nd 36.4 36.0 −0.4
0 outs, 2nd → 1 out, 3rd 59.9 63.3 +3.4
0 outs, 1st & 2nd → 1 out, 2nd & 3rd 60.5 66.8 +6.3
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Break-even rate for stolen bases (last 3 seasons)

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Steal Break-even
rate		 Actual
rate		 Attempts
Steal of 2nd (0 outs) .641 .680 294
Steal of 2nd (1 out) .675 .678 528
Steal of 2nd (2 outs) .689 .729 547
Steal of 3rd (0 outs) .749 .500 2
Steal of 3rd (1 out) .653 .818 11
Steal of 3rd (2 outs) .901 .500 10
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Steal attempts and caught stealing (last 3 seasons)

Clubs

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Team Attempts Caught Caught
rate		 Attempt
rate
ORIX 253 79 .312 .046
Nippon-Ham 268 83 .310 .055
SoftBank 233 69 .296 .049
Rakuten 265 74 .279 .049
Seibu 291 80 .275 .056
Lotte 328 75 .229 .063

Pitchers (3 with the most batters faced)

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Pitcher Attempts Caught Caught
rate		 Attempt
rate
SoftBank
大津 亮介 11 6 .545 .028
上沢 直之 19 3 .158 .056
松本 晴 8 4 .500 .024
Seibu
隅田 知一郎 45 19 .422 .077
平良 海馬 13 3 .231 .037
武内 夏暉 26 8 .308 .062
Nippon-Ham
伊藤 大海 33 6 .182 .048
北山 亘基 24 10 .417 .054
達 孝太 19 6 .316 .066
ORIX
九里 亜蓮 24 7 .292 .052
エスピノーザ 36 12 .333 .063
ジェリー 9 2 .222 .059
Lotte
ジャクソン 20 5 .250 .099
小島 和哉 46 15 .326 .077
田中 晴也 22 4 .182 .099
Rakuten
荘司 康誠 13 5 .385 .038
早川 隆久 18 3 .167 .039
古謝 樹 18 4 .222 .042

Catchers (3 with the most attempts)

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Catcher Attempts Caught Caught
rate		 Attempt
rate
SoftBank
甲斐 拓也 60 15 .250 .060
海野 隆司 59 25 .424 .044
山本 祐大 12 2 .167 .024
Seibu
古賀 悠斗 114 41 .360 .056
小島 大河 31 8 .258 .058
炭谷 銀仁朗 18 4 .222 .065
Nippon-Ham
田宮 裕涼 103 39 .379 .049
伏見 寅威 51 12 .235 .064
進藤 勇也 19 7 .368 .055
ORIX
若月 健矢 142 48 .338 .050
森 友哉 37 8 .216 .047
福永 奨 15 7 .467 .053
Lotte
佐藤 都志也 168 39 .232 .066
寺地 隆成 47 7 .149 .064
田村 龍弘 33 10 .303 .056
Rakuten
太田 光 59 22 .373 .037
堀内 謙伍 30 9 .300 .046
石原 彪 27 3 .111 .068

The estimated figures are worked out by this site and are not official announcements.

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