Climax Series odds board
'Controls top 3' asks whether the club would finish top three by winning all remaining games, regardless of rivals (shown as Yes only when mathematically certain). 'GB (3rd)' is the gap in games behind the third-place club; clubs currently in the top three show '—' (this differs from the leader-based GB on the overview board).
Pacific League
The figure under each probability is the change since Sat, Sep 19. The reference is the most recent date on which that league played, so dates without games are not used as a reference. Small movements are shown as plain numbers without color.
Scroll right for W-L, PCT and more
| Rank | Team | Climax Series odds | Controls top 3 | W - L - T | PCT | GB (3rd) | Left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SoftBank | ±0.0 pt | Yes | 84 - 47 - 3 | .641 | — | 9 |
| 2 | Seibu | ±0.0 pt | Yes | 74 - 56 - 4 | .569 | — | 9 |
| 3 | Nippon-Ham | ±0.0 pt | Yes | 73 - 59 - 3 | .553 | — | 8 |
| 4 | ORIX | ±0.0 pt | No | 63 - 70 - 2 | .474 | 10.5 | 8 |
| 5 | Lotte | ±0.0 pt | No | 58 - 68 - 3 | .460 | 12.0 | 14 |
| 6 | Rakuten | ±0.0 pt | No | 52 - 78 - 1 | .400 | 20.0 | 12 |
Darker cells mean a bigger gap to third place, which makes reaching the Climax Series harder.
All probabilities are model estimates and do not guarantee outcomes.
How many wins to the CS line? CS line table
When will CS berths be clinched? CS clinch dates
Odds of coming through the CS and reaching the Japan Series? Climax Series survival odds
Climax Series odds over time
The same model re-run on each day's data, backfilled to opening day.
Scroll right to see the full chart
Reading the Climax Series odds board
The board lists clubs in standings order with their Climax Series odds, top-three control, record, winning percentage, games behind third place, and games remaining. 'Controls top 3' is a mathematical test - whether winning all remaining games would guarantee a top-three finish regardless of rivals - shown as Yes only when mathematically certain (a safe-side call).
'GB (3rd)' measures the gap to the third-place club, the distance to the Climax Series zone - a different baseline from the leader-based GB on the overview board. Clubs currently in the top three show '—'.
Reading the odds-over-time chart
The chart re-runs the same model on each day's data, backfilled to opening day, and plots the estimated Climax Series odds. Sharp swings often line up with head-to-head series among the third-place contenders or with winning and losing streaks, and the shape of the race can shift before the standings themselves change.
A displayed 100% or 0% is the result of rounding to one decimal place and does not necessarily mean mathematical certainty or elimination. The mathematical state - clinched status and CS berth magic numbers - lives on the CS clinch-date page.
The same calculation as the odds board
The computation uses the same calculation as the pennant race odds board. Each projected season is ranked with the official standings rules, tiebreakers included. The numbers are this site's own estimates, not official announcements.
Frequently asked questions
What exactly are Climax Series odds?
It is the share of simulated completions of the remaining schedule in which the club finished in its league's top three. It is an estimate that moves with the season, not a definitive call.
Does 100% or 0% mean it is decided?
Not necessarily. Displayed values are rounded to one decimal place, so 100% or 0% can appear before anything is mathematically settled. For the mathematical state, see the clinched flags and CS berth magic numbers on the CS clinch-date page.
How do Climax Series odds differ from pennant odds?
Pennant odds count the simulations a club finished first; Climax Series odds count top-three finishes. Both come from the same simulation, so a club's pennant odds can never exceed its CS odds.
What is the Climax Series?
It is NPB's postseason format in which the top three clubs of each league play for the right to reach the Japan Series, held in both leagues since 2007. A third-place finish keeps the road to the championship open even without a pennant.