Projected finish: Pacific League
The table is in projected-rank order. The Pennant, Top 3 and Last columns show the chance of finishing there.
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Chance of each finish
Each cell is the chance of finishing at that rank (blank under 0.5%). The range column shows the best and worst final ranks that can come out.
Diagonal hatching marks ranks that can no longer be reached, whatever the remaining results.
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| Team | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SoftBank | 100% | #1-#1 | |||||
| Seibu | 100% | #2-#2 | |||||
| Nippon-Ham | 100% | #3-#3 | |||||
| ORIX | 100% | #4-#4 | |||||
| Lotte | 100% | #5-#5 | |||||
| Rakuten | 100% | #6-#6 |
What the forecast rests on
See also the schedule and momentum: Remaining schedule difficulty / Games-over-.500 chart (momentum)
True strength (Pythagorean)
Pacific LeagueLargest gap vs expected wins: ORIX +8.8 wins (overperforming)
Team strength rating (Elo)
Pacific LeagueLeague leader: SoftBank 1574.1
Right after opening day the gaps are small; they widen as games are played.
How accurate are these forecasts? Track record of this forecast
Inputs for this date
- Tie rate (Pacific, observed)1.7%
The estimated figures are worked out by this site and are not official announcements.
How to read the forecast
The range shows the places that come up as a final finish: the narrower it is, the more settled the place.
Even for a club with no pennant chance, the top-three and last-place odds show what is still at stake in the games left.
How it differs from pundits' picks
This forecast is updated every morning from game results alone and includes no judgement of the rosters.