盗垒的盈亏平衡点 - 用脚跑出的 1 分真的划算吗
A successful steal advances a runner into scoring position, but failure adds an out. Sabermetrics sets the break-even success rate at 70 to 75 percent. This article reassesses NPB's stolen base tactics through data.
分析
关于 NPB 的分析文章
为什么双打席打者正在消亡 - NPB 中逐渐消失的左右开弓技术
NPB once featured numerous switch hitters including Kazuo Matsui. Their numbers have plummeted in recent years. This article examines the structural factors behind the decline through data and developmental changes.
故意四球的战略演变 - 免投故意四球如何改变了 NPB 的竞争哲学
NPB 于 2018 年引入的免投故意四球制度，从根本上改变了故意四球的战略定位。取消投球动作即可保送打者上垒，降低了故意四球的成本，也改变了教练使用这一战术的时机与方式。
左投手为何被重用 - NPB左投手溢价的结构分析
NPB drafts consistently overvalue left-handed pitchers relative to performance. This article uses data to explain the structural reasons behind the left-handed pitcher premium.
NPB「代打王牌」消失的原因 - 用数据解读代打专职的衰退
NPB once celebrated pinch-hit specialists as clutch heroes. Players like Takai Yasuhiro and Hiyama Shinjiro built careers around a single at-bat. Today, the pure pinch-hitter has all but vanished, replaced by utility players and bullpen-heavy rosters.
NPB 打序理论的演变 - 2 号位最强打者论与传统打序之争
NPB 打序之争：传统的小球战术 2 号位打者与受 MLB 启发的「最强打者放 2 号位」理论，数据分析与教练直觉的碰撞。
读卖对阪神的数据解剖 - 传统对决 90 年的数字
追溯读卖对阪神 90 年传统对决的数据全貌，从通算对战成绩到这段宿敌关系的未来。
乐天队史首次通算负越 - 从未通算负越的球团仅剩阪神一支
2026 年 4 月 8 日，千叶乐天海洋队自 1950 年创立以来首次通算成绩跌破五成胜率。至此，在 NPB 全部 21 支球团（含已消亡球团）中，从未出现过通算负越的球团仅剩阪神虎队一支。
关键时刻击球的统计分析 - 它真的存在吗
对 NPB 中关键时刻击球能力的统计检验。本文分析得分圈打击率的可靠性、通过 WPA 进行的评估，以及关键时刻的表现究竟是一种可持续的技能还是偶然的产物。
终结者的进化 - NPB 中救援投手角色的变迁
曾经被视为败局处理的救援投手，如今已成为决定比赛胜负的关键角色。本文从数据与战术两个维度，追溯 NPB 中终结者角色的演变历程。
才木浩人16次三振的震撼 - 用数据解读中央联盟平纪录之战
On April 7, 2026, Hiroto Saiki struck out 16 batters in 8 innings on 105 pitches, tying the Central League record. Using official NPB box score data, this article analyzes his batter-by-batter strikeout patterns, zero-walk efficiency against 29 batters faced, and what the numbers reveal about his dominance.
NPB代打的美学 - 赌上一个打席的男人们的技术与觉悟
The art of pinch-hitting in NPB: Yasuhiro Takai's record 227 pinch hits, the tactical differences created by the DH rule, and the mental fortitude required for one at-bat.
NPB 球员的迷信与仪式 - 例行程序背后的强迫心理
NPB 球员的迷信和例行程序常被正面描述为「集中注意力的仪式」。然而，部分球员表现出接近强迫症 (OCD) 的症状，深受例行程序束缚之苦。
NPB 板凳深度战术 - 替补球员如何决定比赛胜负
NPB 板凳管理的艺术：代打时机、替补球员准备、暗号传达，以及支撑教练决策的幕后工作。
NPB 对赛伯计量学的抵制 - 被数据革命抛下的联赛
While sabermetrics transformed MLB team management in the early 2000s, NPB long neglected data analytics. This article examines the delays caused by the mentality that 'baseball isn't about numbers,' veteran scouts' experience-first ideology, and underinvestment in analytics departments.
「优雅退役」的压力 - 棒球界如何迫使球员过早退役
NPB has a unique culture of 'graceful retirement.' Players still capable of playing often retire under pressure not to 'tarnish their legacy.' This article analyzes age bias, generational transition pressure, and the structure that disregards players' self-determination.
交易截止日影响分析 - 补强与竞争均衡
NPB's trade system has undergone unique development compared to MLB.
终结者角色演变分析 - 守护神的谱系
深入分析终结者角色的演变与守护神的谱系，从救援规则确立之前的完投时代开始，追溯至现代牛棚运用及未来课题。
机关巨蛋之谜 - 东京巨蛋真的容易打出全垒打吗？
东京巨蛋被嘲讽地称为「机关巨蛋」（Karakuri Dome），并被批评为有利于读卖的全垒打量产球场。
穹顶全垒打现象 - 解析东京巨蛋的全垒打膨胀效应
全面解析东京巨蛋特有的「穹顶全垒打」现象，从球场因子和物理条件等多角度分析全垒打数量膨胀的原因。
NPB 200 胜俱乐部谱系 - 只有伟大投手才能抵达的巅峰
NPB 200 胜俱乐部：从金田正一的 400 胜到山本昌的 219 胜，共 24 位成员，以及为何在现代棒球中达成 200 胜已近乎不可能。
NPB 捕手的价值 - 扇之要为何主宰比赛
深入探讨 NPB 捕手的价值，从扇之要到现代捕手形象，全面解析捕手如何主宰比赛。
打击顺序的科学 - 「三棒最强打者」真的是最优解吗?
NPB 的惯例是将最强打者放在第三棒,但赛伯计量学研究表明第二棒能最大化得分产出。本文探讨打击顺序传统与科学优化之间的差距。
NPB 牛棚管理的演变 - 从胜利模式到极致分工
NPB 牛棚管理如何从 2005 年阪神 JFK 三人组开始，经历现代分工、先发开局战术和数据驱动的后援投手调度而不断演变。
NPB 新人王的谱系 - 在新秀赛季闪耀的未来之星
NPB's Rookie of the Year award since 1950: the lineage from Nagashima through Nomo to Ohtani, selection criteria, and whether the 'Rookie of the Year curse' is real.
牛棚日战略 - 没有先发投手如何赢得比赛
「牛棚日」是指球队在没有传统先发投手的情况下，通过接力投球完成整场比赛的战术。本文通过实际案例和数据，探讨这一在 NPB 中仍不常见的战术的可能性与局限性。
NPB 三三纪录的谱系 - 三成打率·30本垒打·30盗垒的超人纪录
The 'Triple Three' (.300/30 HR/30 SB) is one of NPB's rarest achievements, highlighted by Yuki Yanagita and Tetsuto Yamada's simultaneous accomplishment in 2015.
左右分队制的功与过 - 轮换策略真的有效吗
The platoon tactic of deploying right-handed batters against left-handed pitchers and vice versa. This article verifies platoon split realities in NPB through data, examining successful and failed cases and the impact on player motivation.
打者利眼与击球的惊人关联 - 站在哪侧打击区更容易看清投手
人类有惯用手，同样也有利眼。当右眼为利眼的打者站在左打击区时，利眼正对投手方向。这能否解释 NPB 中左打者数量众多的现象？
投球接球技术的科学 - 捕手技术如何影响裁判判定
Examines pitch framing in NPB through data analysis, measuring how catchers' mitt manipulation influences umpire calls and the adoption of framing metrics.
终结者的心理素质 - 站上第九局投手丘的条件
全面解析终结者的心理素质 - 从终结者这一特殊位置到不断演变的终结者运用方式，探讨站上第九局投手丘所需的条件。
NPB 金手套奖的传承 - 防守大师们的艺术
NPB's Golden Glove Award since 1972, honoring defensive excellence from Tsuyoshi Shinjo's 10 wins to Ryosuke Kikuchi's acrobatic second base play.
复仇登板的心理学 - 被打爆的投手如何重新振作
How do pitchers perform in their next start after allowing many runs? This article analyzes revenge start success rates and pitcher mental recovery from NPB data.
二刀流的未来 - 大谷翔平之后 NPB 投打兼任的可能性
Examining whether NPB can produce successors to Ohtani's two-way path through institutional and developmental analysis.
代跑专家 - NPB 专职代跑选手的价值与战术
NPB has players known as 'pinch runner specialists.' This article analyzes the tactical rationale behind dedicating a roster spot to a player specializing solely in baserunning, examining the history and win contribution of pinch runner deployment.
阪神虎队打线变迁 - 从猛虎打线到串联棒球
深入探讨阪神虎队打线的变迁 - 从猛虎打线到串联棒球，涵盖 1985 年猛虎打线的背景到 2023 年转向串联棒球的全面分析。
败战处理投手的残酷角色 - 在大比分落后中登板的投手们的真实处境
当球队落后七分时，总得有人上场投球。败战处理投手的角色永远不会带来胜利，却在球队运营中不可或缺。为什么这个残酷的位置必须存在？在一场注定失败的比赛中投球是什么感受？
左打者优势的结构分析 - NPB中左右格差的实态
Examines the structural advantages of left-handed batters in NPB through data analysis, covering distance to first base, pitcher handedness ratios, and stadium asymmetry.
阪神虎队投手史 - 王牌谱系与投手王国的变迁
深入探讨阪神虎队投手史-王牌谱系与投手王国的变迁，涵盖昭和时代的王牌村山实与江夏豊、2023年投手王国及未来展望等多角度分析。
打击教练的哲学 - 教练改变打线的瞬间
A comprehensive look at hitting coach philosophies - when coaching transforms a lineup, from the impact of hitting coaches to the future hitting coach.
甲子园优势 - 阪神虎队主场优势分析
深入分析甲子园优势-阪神虎队的主场优势，探讨海风与球场系数、与高中棒球共存带来的赛程限制等多方面因素。
阪神投手王国的谱系 - 虎之投手力量缔造冠军的原因
深入分析阪神投手王国的谱系-虎之投手力量为何能缔造冠军，从投手王国的起源到投手王国的可持续性进行全面探讨。
NPB代跑专家 - 速度专家改变比赛的瞬间
The art of NPB's pinch-running specialists, from Takahiro Suzuki's .829 career stolen base rate to the split-second decisions that change games without a single at-bat.
盗垒的技术论 - 速度专家讲述 0.1 秒的博弈
A detailed exploration of the art of stealing bases - the 0.1-second mind games of speed specialists, spanning three elements determining stolen base success..
泽村赏的历史与价值 - 授予 NPB 最佳先发投手的最高荣誉
The Sawamura Award, NPB's most prestigious pitching honor since 1947, named after legendary pre-war pitcher Eiji Sawamura. Examining its seven selection criteria, the lineage of winners, and modern debates over outdated standards.
NPB 中赛伯计量学的渗透 - 数据革命如何改变了日本棒球
How sabermetrics transformed NPB: the adoption of OPS, WAR, and UZR, and their impact on Japanese baseball strategy, player evaluation, and draft decisions.
冈田彰布的执教风格 - 把平凡的事做到极致的胜利哲学
深入探讨冈田彰布的执教风格-把平凡的事做到极致的胜利哲学，从冈田彰布这位指挥官到其执教遗产的全面分析。
新人王影响力分析 - 首秀赛季的表现趋势
Examining rookie of the year impact analysis - performance trends in debut seasons in depth, covering history and selection criteria of the rookie of the yea..
伤病名单的战略性运用 - 注册与注销的博弈
Analyzes strategic roster management in NPB, examining disabled list system evolution, tactical registration manipulation, and psychological impacts on players.
为什么棒球没有左撇子捕手 - 一个消失位置背后的结构性原因
Left-handed pitchers and batters are common. Left-handed catchers are virtually nonexistent in both NPB and MLB. Why is catching the one position reserved exclusively for right-handers?
发射角度革命 - 飞球革命对 NPB 的影响
MLB 的飞球革命如何重塑了 NPB 的打击方式，通过发射角度趋势、本垒打与三振数据以及柳田悠岐等选手的案例进行分析。
三小时棒球转播中，球实际处于比赛状态的时间仅有 18 分钟
一场 NPB 比赛大约持续三个小时，但球实际处于比赛状态的累计时间短得令人震惊。剩余时间都用在了哪里？数据揭示了棒球著名「间」的真正本质。
打击王争夺战 - 激战到最后一刻的打击率竞赛
深入探讨打击王争夺战的历史,涵盖打击王在 NPB 中的特殊地位、传奇对决、最终战的博弈策略,以及打击率变迁趋势与未来展望。
跑垒效率分析 - 量化隐性得分贡献
仅凭盗垒数无法衡量跑垒的全部价值。本文通过 BsR 和 UBR 等赛伯计量学指标对其进行量化，利用具体数据分析 NPB 中的进垒率、触杀补位成功率及跑垒带来的得分增量，剖析那些被誉为跑垒高手的选手们的技术。
胜利投手规则的荒谬 - 五局规定的矛盾与不公
The winning pitcher must pitch at least five innings. But this rule distributes wins without regard to actual contribution. A starter can earn a win after allowing 10 runs in five innings while another gets nothing for 4.2 scoreless innings.
三成打击率意味着七成失败 - 一项以失败为前提的运动的异常性
三成打击率是顶级打者的标志。但三成意味着每10次打击中有7次失败。没有其他运动会把70%失败率的人称为天才。为什么棒球建立在如此惊人的失败容忍度之上？
职业棒球选手一场比赛跑多远 - 各位置跑动距离的意外真相
Soccer players run 10-13 km per game. How far do baseball players run? The answer is surprisingly little, but the gap between the most and least active positions is wider than you'd expect.
NPB 比赛中「什么都没发生的一局」占多少比例 - 三上三下的概率与无聊的科学
一局比赛中三名打者依次出局的情况有多常见？「什么都没发生」的频率揭示了棒球在动与静之间节奏的隐藏结构。
棒球选手在比赛中大部分时间都面朝左方 - 右打席、一垒方向与逆时针跑垒的结构性偏向
Watch a baseball game from above and you'll notice players spend a disproportionate amount of time facing left. Right-handed batters face left, runners circle counterclockwise, and fielders orient leftward tracking batted balls. Baseball is structurally a leftward-facing sport.
牛棚使用演变分析 - 从完投时代到专业化分工
基于数据驱动的 NPB 救援投手使用演变分析。本文考察了从完投理念到胜利方程式再到揭幕战策略的发展历程，验证牛棚管理演变与投手健康之间的关系。
职业棒球比赛中最闲的位置是哪里 - 外野手实际处理球的次数真相
An NPB game lasts about three hours. During that time, outfielders handle the ball shockingly few times. Left and right fielders may touch the ball only a handful of times per game. The data reveals which position spends the most time waiting.
NPB左右对决优势分析 - 数据揭示的打击对决规律
A statistical analysis of platoon splits in NPB examining performance differences based on pitcher-batter handedness matchups. This article compares with MLB, examines trends across eras, and verifies the impact of platoon strategy on managerial decisions.
教练任期与成绩的相关性分析
追溯教练任期与成绩相关性分析的全貌，从 NPB 教练任期的变迁趋势到名教练的共同特征 - 数据揭示的规律。
盗垒减少的统计分析 - 跑垒战术的变迁
NPB stolen bases have declined since the 1980s peak. This statistical analysis examines improved pickoff moves, catcher throwing, and sabermetric reassessment of baserunning value.
天气与比赛取消的统计分析 - 穹顶球场的效果
An analysis of weather-related game cancellation statistics in NPB, examining the impact of domed stadiums on game operations. This article compares cancellation rates between outdoor and domed venues, correlates regional rainfall patterns, and considers the multifaceted effects on revenue.
赛伯计量学在 NPB 的导入分析
An analysis of the adoption process and current state of sabermetrics in NPB. This article examines the influence from MLB, data utilization across teams, integration with traditional scouting, and the potential for developing Japan-specific metrics.
NPB 打击成绩的演变分析 - 飞球争议与统一用球
深入探讨 NPB 打击成绩的演变历程，从飞球争议到统一用球的引入，涵盖打者有利时代的兴衰以及现代打击环境与未来展望。
NPB 投手的进化 - 球速、变化球与分工制的变迁分析
NPB pitching evolved from 1950s complete-game aces to modern specialization. This traces how velocity increases, pitch diversity, and data analytics accelerated the transformation.
观众上座率趋势分析 - 各球团与联赛的长期走势
NPB 年度观众人数于 2019 年达到 2653 万人的历史峰值。本文通过统计数据分析各球团间的上座率差异、巨蛋球场的影响以及疫情后的恢复过程。
投球数管理革命 - 从「完投美学」到「100球换投」的转变
NPB starting pitchers' average pitch counts are declining yearly, with 100-pitch exits becoming standard. This article examines the shift from complete game virtue to workload management through data and injury risk analysis.
老化曲线分析 - NPB 球员的巅峰年龄是何时
通过 WAR 和 OPS 数据分析 NPB 打者与投手的表现如何随年龄变化，考察各守备位置的巅峰年龄及长寿球员的共同特征。
球场特性分析 - 球场因子及其对成绩的影响
分析 NPB 各球场的球场因子，探讨球场特性如何影响打击和投球成绩。本文比较了东京巨蛋、甲子园和神宫球场等主要场馆的特征。
NPB 主场优势的统计分析
对 NPB 主场优势的统计考察。本文分析各球队的主场胜率、圆顶球场与露天球场之间的差异，以及与观众人数的相关性。
选秀成功率分析 - NPB 各球团培养能力比较
按球团分析 NPB 选秀指名球员的成功率。本文考察高顺位和低顺位选秀球员的留存率、育成选手的崛起，以及球探能力与球员培养之间的关联。
NPB 与 MLB 的比较分析 - 制度、文化与水平的差异
Examining a comparative analysis of npb and mlb - differences in systems, culture, and level of play in depth, covering differences in systems and rules thro..
配球争论 - 投球配序真的能决定比赛胜负吗?
日本棒球界认为捕手的配球决定了投手的表现。但数据表明，投球配序的影响可能没有传统认知中那么大。
代打王牌 - NPB 代打战术分析
Examining the pinch hitting trump card - tactical analysis of pinch hitting in npb in depth, covering the unique role of pinch hitting through the psychology..
救援投手的登板过多问题 - 过度使用与伤病的相关性分析
An in-depth analysis of relief pitcher workload - overuse and injury correlation, exploring the scope of relief pitcher overuse and future outlook.
工具人球员的价值 - 多位置球员的贡献度分析
A data-driven analysis of utility player value in NPB, examining WAR contributions, roster flexibility, and case studies of multi-position stars like Yamato, Kosuke Tanaka, and Seiya Kinami.
胜利概率增加值 - 用 WPA 看 NPB 的关键先生们
An in-depth analysis of win probability added - clutch players through wpa in npb, exploring what is wpa (win probability added)? and practical applications ..
守备指标的演变 - 以 UZR 和 DRS 审视 NPB 的防守力
全面解析守备指标的演变 - 以 UZR 和 DRS 审视 NPB 的防守实力。从守备评价的转折点 - 守备率的局限性出发，到追踪技术与守备指标的未来发展进行验证。
左右别打击成绩的趋势 - 左右对决差异的变化
Platoon splits, where batters perform better against opposite-handed pitchers, shape NPB lineup construction. This analyzes long-term trends and tactical evolution in platoon usage.
雨天中断的战术学 - 教练如何将天气变为己方优势
Analyzing the tactical dimensions of rain delays in NPB, from pitching change decisions and body temperature management to historic games transformed by weather interruptions.
左投手的稀缺价值 - 从一人次专家到终结者的演变
左投手在 NPB 中具有稀缺的战术价值。本文追溯了他们从一人次专家黄金时代，经历 MLB 规则变更，到左投终结者崛起的演变历程。