2026 Climax Series and Japan Series schedule (official)
Scroll right for more
| Stage | Dates | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| CS First Stage | From Sat, Oct 10 | Second vs third place, best-of-three (first to two wins) |
| CS Final Stage | From Wed, Oct 14 | League champion vs First Stage winner, with an advantage |
| Japan Series | Sat, Oct 24 to Sun, Nov 1 | League winners meet, first to four wins, up to game seven |
Dates follow the official NPB announcement (checked Sep 17, 2026) and can move if a reserve day is used.
The Final Stage format and the advantage conditions are explained in How to read this page.
The odds of getting through the CS and the Japan Series are the share of repeated statistical simulations of the games still to be played in which the club won that matchup. Finished games are taken as they stand and only the remaining games are estimated. The historical figures are what happened, not estimates.
Matchups and series odds
The two clubs in a matchup always add up to 100%. In the Climax Series (CS) Final Stage the win column includes the league champion's advantage wins.
The two CS rows assume the standings finish as they are now, and the Japan Series row assumes both league champions get through. The matchups change as the standings change.
Chance the Central League Final Stage goes to 7 games: 10.4%
Chance the Pacific League Final Stage goes to 7 games: 67.1%
CS First Stage
CS Final Stage
Japan Series (in this matchup)
These are the odds that each club wins it all if these two meet. They are not the championship odds at the top of the page, which also allow for which matchup happens.
Possible Japan Series matchups
The Central and Pacific representatives are decided separately, so the chance of a matchup is the product of the two clubs' Japan Series odds.
Chance of the matchup
All 6 × 6 cells add up to 100%. Each cell is the chance that the Central club in that row meets the Pacific club in that column in the Japan Series.
Scroll right for more
| Central League | SoftBank | Seibu | Nippon-Ham | ORIX | Lotte | Rakuten |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hanshin | 43.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Yomiuri | 37.7% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| DeNA | 6.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Yakult | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chunichi | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hiroshima | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
From lightest to darkest: under 25% / 25% or more / 50% or more / 75% or more. Plain cell = 0%
Rows are the Central League, columns the Pacific League.
Rows and columns shown in grey are teams whose Japan Series probability is below 1%.
Chance the Central club wins it all (in that matchup)
The chance that the Central club (the row) wins if those two meet. The Pacific club's chance is 100% minus this value.
Scroll right for more
| Central League | SoftBank | Seibu | Nippon-Ham | ORIX | Lotte | Rakuten |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hanshin | 39.0% | 52.2% | 52.4% | 65.6% | 65.7% | 69.5% |
| Yomiuri | 37.2% | 50.3% | 50.5% | 63.9% | 64.0% | 67.8% |
| DeNA | 34.3% | 47.2% | 47.4% | 60.9% | 61.0% | 65.0% |
| Yakult | 23.4% | 34.7% | 34.9% | 48.1% | 48.3% | 52.5% |
| Chunichi | 27.4% | 39.5% | 39.7% | 53.2% | 53.3% | 57.5% |
| Hiroshima | 23.2% | 34.4% | 34.6% | 47.8% | 47.9% | 52.2% |
Red = the Central club is favoured (55.0% or more) / Blue = the Pacific club is favoured (45.0% or less) / Bold = 65.0% or more, or 35.0% or less.
Rows are the Central League, columns the Pacific League.
Japan Series: chance of getting through from here (if the two were even)
Values for two clubs assumed to be even (a 50% chance in every game). Rows are the club's own wins, columns the opponent's wins, and the outlined cell is the current state.
Scroll right for more
| Own / opponent (wins) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50.0% | 34.4% | 18.8% | 6.3% |
| 1 | 65.6% | 50.0% | 31.3% | 12.5% |
| 2 | 81.3% | 68.8% | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| 3 | 93.8% | 87.5% | 75.0% | 50.0% |
From lightest to darkest: under 25% / 25% or more / 50% or more / 75% or more. Plain cell = 0%
For example, the cell "own 1 / opponent 2" means a 4 chance of winning a matchup in the CS and the Japan Series that needs 31.3% wins from there. Differences in strength are not included.
CS Final Stage format
From 2026, if the league champion is 10 games or more ahead of the First Stage winner, or the First Stage winner finishes with more losses than wins, the Final Stage is played over 7 games. The two tables below show each format separately.
6-game format / 1-win advantage (4 wins to advance)
Scroll right for more
| Own / opponent (wins) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65.6% | 50.0% | 31.3% | 12.5% |
| 2 | 81.3% | 68.8% | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| 3 | 93.8% | 87.5% | 75.0% | 50.0% |
7-game format / 2-win advantage (5 wins to advance)
Scroll right for more
| Own / opponent (wins) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 77.3% | 65.6% | 50.0% | 31.3% | 12.5% |
| 3 | 89.1% | 81.3% | 68.8% | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| 4 | 96.9% | 93.8% | 87.5% | 75.0% | 50.0% |
How much each game weighs
In the CS and the Japan Series, this is how far the chance of winning that matchup moves depending on whether the club wins or loses that game. Before it starts every game carries the same weight; once a game is actually reached, the later games carry more.
Scroll right to see the full chart
Scroll right for more
| Game | Swing on the result | Chance the game is played |
|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | ||
| Game 2 | ||
| Game 3 | ||
| Game 4 | ||
| Game 5 | ||
| Game 6 | ||
| Game 7 |
"Swing on the result" is how many points the chance of winning that matchup in the CS and the Japan Series moves with a win or a loss. "Chance the game is played" is how likely the matchup lasts that long. Game 7 decides it whenever it is played, so it is 100.0 pt.
The record of past Japan Series
Percentages are shown from 30 times up; 10 to 29 times are indicative, and 9 times or fewer are shown as counts only. Because the counts are limited, a gap of a few points from an even matchup can still be chance. Only gaps that chance is unlikely to explain are marked with "*". The record is what happened, not a forecast for this year.
Numbers worth knowing
- First to 3 wins took the title 85.5% 76 times, of which 65 If even: 84.4%
- Took the title from 2 - 0 72.5% 40 times, of which 29 If even: 81.3%
- Host of games one and two took the title 43.2% 74 times, of which 32 If even: 50.0%
- Went to game 7 34.2% 76 times, of which 26 If even: 31.3%
These are the records of past Japan Series, not a forecast for this year.
Scroll right to see the full chart
The share of the side that won each game and went on to take the title. Winning game 7 decides the series on the spot, so that share is always 100.0%.
Game 8 was reached only in 1986, 1 time, and that game 8 is left out of the chart and the table.
Scroll right for more
| Game | Actual | If even | Gap vs even |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | 61.6%(73 times) | 65.6% | −4.0 pt |
| Game 2 | 62.7%(75 times) | 65.6% | −2.9 pt |
| Game 3 | 67.6%(74 times) | 65.6% | +2.0 pt |
| Game 4 | 66.2%(74 times) | 65.6% | +0.6 pt |
| Game 5 | 71.0%(69 times) | 67.9% | +3.1 pt |
| Game 6 | 75.5%(49 times) | 75.0% | +0.5 pt |
| Game 7 | 100.0%(26 times / indicative) | 100.0% | — |
The side that wins game 7 is the champion, so the share is always 100.0%. No gap is shown.
"*" = a gap that chance is unlikely to explain given the number of times.
So far no line differs from an even matchup by more than chance would explain.
Only when that game did not decide it (games 4 to 6)
Among games 4 to 6, this counts only the cases where the side won that game but the title was still undecided. If the second-to-last game does not decide it, the next game moves towards even.
Scroll right for more
| Game | Actual | If even | Gap vs even |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 4 | 62.7%(67 times) | 60.7% | +2.0 pt |
| Game 5 | 60.0%(50 times) | 55.0% | +5.0 pt |
| Game 6 | 52.0%(25 times / indicative) | 50.0% | — |
Scroll right to see the full chart
Of the 76 past Japan Series, the share decided at each record. Years extended by a tie are classed by wins and losses.
Scroll right for more
| Result | Actual | If even |
|---|---|---|
| 4 - 0 | 12.5% | |
| 4 - 1 | 25.0% | |
| 4 - 2 | 31.3% | |
| 4 - 3 | 31.3% |
Includes 9 tied games. A tie counts as neither a win nor a loss.
Record of the side that won first and of the host
The first three rows are shares per Japan Series, the fourth is the host club's win rate per game, and the last row is the share of Japan Series that reached game 7.
Scroll right for more
| Item | Actual | If even | Gap vs even |
|---|---|---|---|
| Side that took the first win | 65.6% | −5.1 pt | |
| Side that opened with two wins | 81.3% | −8.8 pt | |
| Side that hosted games one and two | 50.0% | −6.8 pt | |
| Win rate of the host club | 50.0% | +2.3 pt | |
| Series that went to game 7 | 31.3% | +2.9 pt |
The vertical line inside each bar marks 50.0%.
Includes years extended to game 7 or beyond by a tie.
13 games whose host club cannot be established from the records are not counted.
Share that won the title after each state (Japan Series record)
Scroll right for more
| Own / opponent (wins) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50.0%(152 times) | 39.5%(76 times) | 27.5%(40 times) | 15.0%(20 times / indicative) |
| 1 | 60.5%(76 times) | 50.0%(72 times) | 28.6%(56 times) | 10.8%(37 times) |
| 2 | 72.5%(40 times) | 71.4%(56 times) | 50.0%(60 times) | 22.9%(48 times) |
| 3 | 85.0%(20 times / indicative) | 89.2%(37 times) | 77.1%(48 times) | 50.0%(44 times) |
From lightest to darkest: under 25% / 25% or more / 50% or more / 75% or more. Plain cell = 0%
Rows are the club's own wins, columns the opponent's wins. Cells with equal wins are always 50.0%, and a cell plus its mirror add up to 100.0%. "Indicative" = fewer than 30 cases.
Comebacks that happened
The years and clubs that came from behind to win it all. The record on the left reads own - opponent.
Scroll right for more
| State | Won the title |
|---|---|
| 0 - 2 | |
| 0 - 3 | |
| 1 - 3 |
Years
- 0 - 2: 2000 Yomiuri / 2011 SoftBank / 2016 Nippon-Ham / 2022 Orix / 2024 DeNA / and 6 more
- 0 - 3: 1958 Nishitetsu / 1986 Seibu / 1989 Yomiuri
- 1 - 3: 1955 Yomiuri / 1958 Nishitetsu / 1986 Seibu / 1989 Yomiuri
The record of the Climax Series
The Climax Series record starts in 2007. The years with a different format (2007 (no advantage) / 2020 (Pacific League only)) are left out of the base. From 2026, matchups that meet the conditions are best-of-seven (five wins needed) and the league winner's advantage becomes two wins.
Scroll right for more
| Item | Actual | If even | Gap vs even |
|---|---|---|---|
| League winners past the CS Final | 65.6% | +16.8 pt * | |
| Second-place clubs past the CS First | 50.0% | ±0.0 pt | |
| CS First game one winners that advanced | 75.0% | +11.1 pt | |
| CS Final game one winners that advanced | — | — |
- Third-place clubs in the Japan Series: 2010 Lotte / 2017 DeNA / 2024 DeNA
- Years a third-place club won it all: 2010 Lotte / 2024 DeNA
League winners past the CS Final: the share is 16.8 pt higher than an even matchup would give.
The "if even" values use the format up to 2025 (best-of-six with a one-win advantage for the league winner).
"*" = a gap that chance is unlikely to explain given the number of times.
How to read this page
The top of the page lists the matchups that are under way or implied by the standings, each with its series odds. In the Climax Series First Stage the second- and third-place clubs play a best-of-three (first to two wins). In the Final Stage the league champion starts with a one-win advantage over a maximum of six games (first to four counting the advantage), and the winner goes to the Japan Series, where the two league representatives play first to four wins. The two clubs in a matchup always add up to 100%. From 2026, if the league champion finishes 10 or more games ahead of the First Stage winner, or the First Stage winner ends the season with more losses than wins, the Final Stage instead runs to a maximum of seven games with a two-win advantage (first to five counting the advantage).
The swing of a game is how far the series odds move depending on whether the club wins or loses it. Before a series begins every game carries the same weight; what grows is the weight a game carries once that situation is actually reached, and it is largest in the deciding game. In the historical section the share that actually occurred is drawn alongside the value two clubs of equal strength would produce ("if even" in the tables). Where the number of past cases is small, counts are shown instead of a percentage.
How the format changed, and how the records are split
The Japan Series began in 1950 and has always been decided by the first club to four wins. It follows a 2-3-2 pattern: one league's representative hosts games one and two and games six and seven, while the other hosts games three to five. Which league hosts first alternates from year to year. In years with a tie the series ran longer, and a tied game counts as a game with no winner.
The shape of the postseason has changed several times. The Pacific League playoffs of 2004 to 2006 used a different format and are not included in the Climax Series records on this page. The Climax Series began in both leagues in 2007, and from 2008 the league champion has held a one-win advantage in the Final Stage. In 2020 the Central League did not hold it and only the Pacific League played, under a different format. Years with a different format are counted against their own separate base.
The same calculation as the odds board
The computation uses the same calculation as the Japan Series and championship odds board. The likely outcome of each game comes from the underlying strength of the two clubs, read from their runs scored and runs allowed this season together with their win-loss records, and the remaining games are played out according to the format of the series: wins required, maximum games and advantage. Runs are used because they give a truer picture of a club than the win-loss column alone (the true-strength page shows what the run difference implies). The numbers are this site's own estimates, not official announcements. Once a series has started the actual results are taken as they stand and only the remaining games are estimated. The historical records are a count of what happened, not estimates. Home-field advantage is factored in along the host ballparks set by the rules: the higher-placed club in the Climax Series, and the hosting league's side for games one and two and games six and seven of the Japan Series. Individual player numbers, starting pitchers, injuries, trades, this season's head-to-head records and recent form are not included.
Frequently asked questions
How are the series odds calculated?
The likely outcome of each game is taken from the underlying strength of the two clubs, and the remaining games are played out repeatedly by statistical simulation under the format of that series; the odds are the share of those simulations in which the club won the series. Games already finished are taken as they stand, and only the games left are estimated. It is an estimate that moves as the series goes on, not a verdict.
Does winning game one make a club likely to win it all?
Yes. In past Japan Series the side that won game one went on to take the title in more than half of the cases. But with four wins needed, taking the first win is an advantage that follows from the format itself. So the record section below puts each figure next to the value two even clubs would produce, and marks with "*" only the lines where the gap is too large for chance to explain given the number of times.
Has a club ever come back from 0-2 or 1-3 down?
Yes. The historical section shows, for each win-loss state, the share that went on to win it all and the years and clubs that actually came back. Where the count is small, the years and clubs are given without a percentage. The trailing club's chance of winning the series shrinks with every loss but does not reach zero until the final game is played.
How is the advantage counted in the records?
The advantage is not a game, so it is not counted in the number of games played. It is added to the win column only - one win, or two in the matchups that meet the seven-game conditions from 2026 - and game one of the Final Stage is counted as the first game actually played. If neither club reaches the required wins within the scheduled games, the club with more wins, advantage included, advances, and on equal wins the higher-placed club goes through.
How are tied games handled?
A tie is a game with no winner and only consumes a game. Because the Climax Series has a maximum number of games, more ties favour the club with more wins - or, on equal wins, the higher-placed club. The Japan Series continues until a club reaches the required wins, so ties do not move the series odds. In the historical records, tied games are excluded from the base of a percentage and the number of ties is noted.
Do you use ERA or batting average?
No. Individual player numbers - ERA, batting average, home runs and so on - and the identity of the starting pitchers are not part of the estimate; we look only at the club's runs scored, runs allowed and win-loss record. The reasoning is that individual performance already shows up in the club's run totals. Injuries, trades, this season's head-to-head records and recent form are also left out, so in a game started by an ace, or with a key player missing, the displayed odds can differ from the real picture.
What does "only when the game did not decide it" mean?
It counts only the cases where a club won game four, five or six but that win was not its fourth. A club that won game four to lead 3-1 is counted; a club that won game four to finish 4-0 and take the title is not. Mixing in the games that ended the series pushes the share up, so the two are shown separately. If the second-to-last game does not decide it, the next game moves towards even.
What does a gap marked with "*" mean?
It marks a gap that chance is unlikely to explain given how many times the situation has come up. Across all the Japan Series played so far the number of cases is still limited, so even two even clubs would show gaps of a few points quite normally. A gap inside that range is not evidence of a difference in strength or of momentum. Reading too much into a gap without "*" is reading too much.
Does 100% or 0% mean it is decided?
Not necessarily. Displayed values are rounded to one decimal place, so 100% or 0% can appear before anything is mathematically settled. In a short series the gap in underlying strength shows through only weakly, and a club with the better game-by-game chances can still lose the series. For the odds in the league race itself, see the pennant race odds board.