The End of the Complete Game Era
From NPB's early days through the 1980s, complete games were a starter's expected duty. Kazuhisa Inao recorded 42 complete games in a single season in the 1960s, and 20-plus completions remained common through the 1970s. Relievers were pitchers who could not start, relegated to mop-up and long relief. The 1990s brought the shift toward specialization, establishing the starter-setup-closer triad. Rising injury prevention awareness and recognition that short-burst relievers outperform over limited innings drove this change. By the 2020s, league-wide complete games had fallen to 20 to 30 per season, making each one a notable event.
The Save Rule and Birth of the Ninth-Inning Man
NPB adopted the save as an official statistic in 1974. The save quantified closer value and created the special status of the ninth-inning man. Kazuhiro Sasaki's 45 saves in 1998 established the precedent of a closer winning MVP. Hitoki Iwase's career 407 saves set the NPB record, symbolizing the closer as a viable career path. Yet the save statistic itself draws criticism: retiring the side in a three-run ninth is far easier than entering with bases loaded in the eighth protecting a one-run lead, yet only the former earns a save. This paradox generates save-opportunity-fixated usage that keeps the best reliever out of the most critical situations.
The Victory Formula Invention
The victory formula is a distinctly NPB concept assigning dedicated relievers to the seventh, eighth, and ninth innings. Popularized in the 2000s and epitomized by the JFK trio (Jeff Williams, Kyuji Fujikawa, Tomoyuki Kubota), it provides psychological preparation and physical routine stability through clear role assignment. However, rigid adherence sacrifices flexibility: if the seventh-inning pitcher falters, advancing the eighth-inning pitcher creates cascading uncertainty. MLB's high-leverage approach, deploying the best reliever in the highest-impact situation regardless of inning, is gaining traction in NPB, though the victory formula culture remains deeply rooted.
Data-Driven Reliever Evaluation
Sabermetrics has fundamentally altered reliever evaluation. Where saves and holds once dominated, WPA (Win Probability Added), LI (Leverage Index), and FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) now take precedence. WPA weights contributions by situation importance, identifying pitchers who truly rescued games beyond what save totals reveal. LI quantifies situation pressure, with high-LI performance marking true ace relievers. NPB teams use these metrics internally, and players have begun citing WPA in salary negotiations. Data democratization is making relievers' invisible contributions visible and driving fairer positional valuation.
The Future Closer - Openers and Multi-Inning Roles
Reliever deployment may transform further. The Tampa Bay Rays' 2018 opener strategy, where a reliever pitches the first inning before the bulk pitcher takes over, targets the dangerous top of the order with high-velocity arms. NPB has seen limited opener adoption, though pitching-thin teams have begun experimenting. Multi-inning closer usage is also debated: single-inning deployment arguably underutilizes elite arms, and two-inning stints from the eighth in high-leverage situations may be more rational. The closer's definition is expanding from the pitcher who throws the ninth to the pitcher who finishes the game.