What Is Tanking - Definition and Context in NPB
Tanking refers to the strategy of intentionally sacrificing wins in a current season to secure higher draft picks for future rebuilding. In MLB, the Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs famously employed this approach in the 2010s, winning the World Series in 2017 and 2016 respectively. NPB's draft system differs fundamentally from MLB's: rather than awarding the top overall pick to the worst team via a straight reverse-order (waiver) system, NPB uses a lottery-bid format in which all 12 teams can nominate the same player in the first round. This means finishing last does not guarantee access to the best amateur talent. However, certain structural changes over the years, such as the separate high-school draft introduced in 2005 and partial waiver elements added from 2008, have occasionally created scenarios where losing more games could yield marginal advantages. This article examines whether tanking is a viable or even tempting strategy within NPB's institutional framework.
The 2004 Kintetsu Dissolution - A Case Study in Structural Decline
The closest NPB has come to a tanking-like scenario is the demise of the Osaka Kintetsu Buffaloes in 2004. Despite winning the Pacific League pennant in 2001, highlighted by Hirotoshi Kitagawa's legendary pinch-hit walk-off grand slam, Kintetsu's parent company Kintetsu Railway was absorbing annual losses of roughly 4 billion yen from the baseball operation. The 2003 season ended with a last-place finish at 55-82-3, and the club slashed payroll and shifted to younger, cheaper players. In June 2004, a merger with Orix was announced, triggering NPB's first-ever player strike on September 18-19. While Kintetsu's decline was driven by financial distress rather than deliberate tanking, the case illustrates how intentionally weakening a roster can accelerate a vicious cycle of fan attrition and revenue collapse.
How NPB's Draft System Deters Tanking
NPB's draft contains several structural features that discourage tanking. First, the first-round lottery-bid system allows every team to target the same player, with ties broken by random draw. Finishing last provides no guaranteed access to the top prospect. Second, while rounds two onward follow reverse-order selection, the unpredictability of the first-round lottery significantly reduces the incentive to lose. Third, NPB's ikusei (development) draft allows clubs to sign players outside the 70-man active roster at minimal cost. SoftBank famously developed Kodai Senga (2010 ikusei 4th round) and Takuya Kai (2010 ikusei 6th round) into frontline contributors through this pathway. These mechanisms collectively ensure that deliberately losing games yields far less competitive advantage in NPB than in MLB's former straight-waiver system.
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MLB Comparisons and Implications for NPB
From 2012 to 2017, the Houston Astros lost over 100 games in three consecutive seasons before building a championship roster around high draft picks like Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman, culminating in a 2017 World Series title. This blueprint inspired multiple MLB teams to tank simultaneously by 2018, prompting the league to introduce a draft lottery in 2023. To avoid a similar trajectory, NPB should maintain its lottery-bid first round while considering expanded revenue sharing and financial support for lower-revenue clubs. The KBO's 2024 introduction of a draft lottery also offers a useful reference point. Given NPB's compact 12-team structure, even one team engaging in tanking can materially damage league-wide entertainment value and broadcast revenues. A dual approach combining institutional safeguards with proactive financial assistance is essential to preserving competitive balance.
FA Compensation System and Its Deterrent Effect on Tanking
The player compensation mechanism attached to NPB's free agency system functions as a competitive balance tool and indirectly deters tanking. When a club signs a free agent, it must transfer one player not on the 28-man protected list to the player's former team. This system prevents wealthy, higher-finishing clubs from unilaterally concentrating talent and ensures a pathway for ready-to-contribute players to flow to lower-ranked teams. For example, when Shun Yamaguchi moved from DeNA to the Yomiuri Giants via free agency after the 2017 season, DeNA acquired Yuya Onaka as compensation, a young pitcher who went on to contribute at his new club. The existence of compensation also discourages some players from exercising free agency altogether, moderating top-team talent hoarding. However, it should be noted that abolition of the compensation system has persistent support, with the players' union continuing to push for reform.
The Dual Structure of Roster Cuts and Development Contracts
Every October, NPB conducts roster-cut notifications as clubs trim their active rosters within the 70-player limit. While this system may appear unrelated to tanking, it is theoretically possible for a lower-ranked club to release a large number of veteran players and convert them to development contracts, reducing visible payroll while preserving draft flexibility. In practice, since development-roster players are ineligible for official games, intentionally keeping active-roster spots open does not directly weaken on-field performance. However, SoftBank's construction of a four-tiered farm system in the late 2010s by maximizing development slots created a new imbalance rooted in financial capacity for player development infrastructure. Cash-strapped clubs lack the resources to replicate this model, which risks entrenching competitive gaps. NPB began discussions in 2024 on lowering the development-roster ceiling from 80 players, seeking to optimize the system.
Fan Psychology and Market Pressure Against Tanking
The greatest deterrent to tanking may be not institutional design but market pressure from fan economic behavior. NPB club revenues derive from gate receipts, broadcasting rights, merchandise sales, and sponsorships, all of which correlate strongly with on-field performance. When the Yokohama DeNA BayStars fell to last place mid-season in 2018, average weekday home attendance in September dropped approximately 15 percent compared to August. If intentional losing were ever exposed, the resulting sponsor withdrawals and mass fan-club cancellations would produce revenue losses far exceeding any short-term payroll savings. The vicious cycle of payroll slashing and attendance decline that the Miami Marlins repeatedly experienced in the 2010s serves as a cautionary parallel for Japanese baseball. Furthermore, the prevalence of social media means that any suspicious lineup decisions or refusals to acquire reinforcements immediately draw fan criticism, leaving club executives virtually no rational space to choose tanking.