Traditional NPB Batting Order
NPB's traditional lineup placed a speedy, high-OBP leadoff hitter first, a sacrifice-bunt specialist second, the best average hitter third, the strongest power hitter fourth, and the secondary power threat fifth. This 'get on, move over, drive in' pattern made the second spot synonymous with small ball, epitomized by Masahiro Kawai's world-record 533 career sacrifice bunts from the two-hole. The sixth through ninth spots were considered the 'lower order,' filled with defense-first players and, in the Central League, the pitcher batting ninth. The underlying philosophy was that a lineup wins by 'connecting' hits in sequence rather than maximizing individual production - a distinctly Japanese baseball ethos that valued team flow over raw power. Managers who deviated from this template risked criticism from media and fans alike, reinforcing the orthodoxy for decades.
Origins of the 'Strongest Second Hitter' Theory in MLB
The theoretical foundation for batting the best hitter second emerged from sabermetric research in the late 1990s and 2000s. Tom Tango and co-authors demonstrated in 'The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball' (2006) that the second lineup spot offers a unique combination of high plate-appearance volume and frequent runners-on-base situations. The first batter always starts the game with the bases empty, but the second batter often comes up immediately after the leadoff hitter reaches base. Over a full season, the difference between the first and second spots is only about 18 plate appearances, yet the second hitter faces roughly 50 more plate appearances with runners on base. This makes the two-hole the most valuable spot for run production when occupied by the team's best overall hitter. MLB teams began adopting this approach in the mid-2010s. Joe Maddon's Cubs placed Kris Bryant second during their 2016 World Series run, and soon Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, and Aaron Judge were regularly batting second. By the 2020s, the second spot posted the highest aggregate OPS of any lineup position across MLB.
The Theory Reaches NPB
MLB's lineup revolution reached NPB in the late 2010s. SoftBank manager Kimiyasu Kudo made headlines in 2019 by batting Yuki Yanagita - an OPS-1.000 caliber slugger - in the second spot, directly challenging the 'second means bunt' orthodoxy. SoftBank won the Japan Series that year with a four-game sweep, though Yanagita's second-spot usage was situational rather than permanent. In the 2020s, DeNA experimented with placing Shugo Maki and Keita Sano in the two-hole, while Orix occasionally batted Masataka Yoshida second. Despite these experiments, NPB's 2023 season data showed that second-spot hitters still accounted for roughly 35% of all sacrifice bunts in the Central League, demonstrating the enduring cultural attachment to small-ball tactics. The slower adoption in NPB reflects several factors: the Central League's pitcher batting spot, the Japanese baseball culture's emphasis on 'connecting' the lineup, and a managerial generation that largely predates the analytics revolution.
Data vs Dugout
The debate between analytics advocates and traditional managers remains sharp. Data analysts argue that sacrifice bunts are statistically inefficient: with no outs and a runner on first, bunting yields an expected run value of roughly 0.67, while swinging away produces approximately 0.83 - a gap of 0.16 runs per bunt. Over a season, a second hitter who bunts 50 times costs the team roughly 8 runs, equivalent to 1-2 wins. Managers counter that bunts create psychological pressure unmeasured by expected-run matrices. Advancing a runner 'for certain' reduces outcome variance, which can matter more than expected value in close late-inning situations. The Central League's structural quirk adds nuance: with the pitcher batting eighth or ninth, the lineup is naturally segmented, and the first-second hitter dynamic differs fundamentally from DH lineups. A small-ball second hitter may retain genuine tactical value in this specific context, even if the general theory favors a power bat.
Sabermetric Lineup Optimization Theory
Optimizing a lineup through sabermetrics involves three key variables: plate-appearance volume, base-runner frequency, and individual hitter profiles. The leadoff spot generates roughly 720 plate appearances per season, while the ninth spot yields about 600 - a gap of 120 PA that underscores the importance of stacking talent at the top. The second spot sees runners on base in approximately 45% of plate appearances, compared to 32% for the leadoff spot. The third spot reaches about 50% but with fewer total PA than the second. The product of PA volume and runners-on-base percentage is highest for the second spot, forming the core argument for placing the best hitter there. Hitter profiles matter too: a high-OBP, high-slugging 'complete' hitter is ideal for the two-hole, while a pure power hitter may be better suited to the fourth spot where RBI opportunities cluster. Placing a high-speed, high-OBP hitter first creates a multiplier effect by increasing the second hitter's runners-on-base frequency through stolen bases and extra-base advancement. Computer simulations estimate the gap between a traditional and an optimized lineup at 15-25 runs per season, or roughly 2-3 wins - a margin that can decide a pennant race.
NPB Case Studies and Results
Examining concrete NPB examples reveals that both approaches can succeed. SoftBank's 2019 championship featured Yanagita's occasional second-spot usage alongside a team batting average of .254 and 171 home runs. Orix's 2021 pennant saw Masataka Yoshida bat second at times, posting a .339 average, 21 home runs, and a .960 OPS. On the traditional side, Hanshin's 2023 league title and Japan Series victory under Akifu Okada relied on Takumu Nakano batting second with over 30 sacrifice bunts while still hitting .285 - proving that a 'connecting' lineup can win championships. Hanshin's success demonstrated that the strongest-second theory is not the only path to victory, and that a roster built around speed and contact can thrive with traditional construction. The key insight is not which theory is correct in the abstract, but which approach best fits a given roster. Teams loaded with power bats benefit from the strongest-second approach, while teams rich in speed and contact skills may extract more value from traditional small-ball tactics.
The Future of Lineup Construction
NPB's lineup philosophy will continue to evolve. The spread of data analytics is gradually increasing the number of managers willing to try the strongest-second approach, particularly in the Pacific League where the DH rule eliminates the pitcher's at-bat and allows more MLB-style construction. The Central League's retention of the pitcher batting spot through the 2024 season constrains lineup flexibility, but any future adoption of the universal DH could accelerate the shift dramatically. Generational change among managers is another catalyst. As coaches who encountered sabermetrics during their playing careers move into managerial roles, resistance to data-driven lineups will naturally diminish. DeNA's Daisuke Miura and Lotte's Masato Yoshii already represent a new wave of analytically inclined skippers producing results. Ultimately, the reality is that no single lineup formula guarantees success. The optimal order shifts with roster composition, the opposing pitcher's tendencies, game situation, and even the phase of the season - early-season evaluation versus late-season pennant pressure. The fusion of traditional wisdom and modern analytics, combined with a manager's situational flexibility, will define NPB's lineup future. Teams that shed rigid orthodoxy and evaluate every option will be best positioned to win pennants.